Sarah Palin claims that she physically delivered a baby April 18, 2008. Is that the Ironclad Truth or is it Frontier Fiction? In Part 1, I argued that the weaknesses in her story point toward fiction. The details don’t add up. However, the ironclad evidence for proof one way or the other is still elusive, primarily because of privacy laws.
In this Part 2, I am going to present a hypothetical timeline that excludes Sarah Palin as the natural mother to the child we know as Trig. I want you to open your mind, consider it, and give us your feedback.
In the world of Architecture, there is the concept of “drivers”. Drivers are the facts and variables that one has to work around to plan a building. They might be load-bearing pillars, location of elevators, heating/AC, electrical, communication or regulations stipulating what the building must have. I am going to take the information I have and approach it from the point of view of what facts and variables drive the birth narrative. I am going to use dates, legal documents, photos and basic knowledge of human physiology to explain what I think occurred. You’ll notice I am not going to apply much in the way of statements by people involved – if I miss something crucial, let us know. Kind of Joe Friday’ish, but I WILL take some leaps. And I am going to start at the end with the Petition for Custody of Tripp.
On February 16, 2009, Greta Van Susteren interviewed Bristol and Tripp was introduced to the world, so we know he existed on that day. Doubt has been cast on his birth date just like Trig’s. We have no birth certificate; just a dubious article in People with questionable sourcing. We have an undated photograph of a presumed Tripp being held by Levi with Levi wearing an ID/security bracelet typical of new fathers. However, we do have evidence:
In the Petition for Custody filed by Bristol Palin on November 4, 2009, via her attorney, Thomas Van Flein, in the Superior Court for the State of Alaska Third Judicial District at Palmer under the heading “Factual Overview” is this opening paragraph: “On December 27, 2008, Bristol Palin gave birth to Tripp Johnston-Palin. It is undisputed that Levi [Johnston – stated earlier in the petition] is Tripp’s father. Although the parties were at one time engaged, they did not marry. Subsequent to Tripp’s birth the couple terminated their personal relationship.”
There is also a Child Custody Jurisdiction Affidavit that appears to be filled out in Bristol’s handwriting and she signed the form under penalty of perjury. It states that, “I, Bristol Palin, say on oath or affirm under penalty of perjury that: 1. The following child(ren) are the subject of the present custody proceedings: Child’s Name: Tripp E. Johnston-Palin, Place of Birth: Wasilla, Birthdate: 12/27/08, Sex: M.” She only indicates one child.
Yes, I know people lie in court all the time. But, there are two facts that could easily be disputed and a third one that would just take a little longer. If Levi read this petition and knew the facts were stated incorrectly, he could do the following: as Tripp’s father he could go to the county courthouse and obtain his own copy of Tripp’s birth certificate to dispute the DOB; he could request and produce a copy of a marriage license; and he could demand DNA testing to prove paternity. He could have done this anonymously through his attorney. But, he did not dispute the facts and in fact, he noted in his legal statements that he agreed with them. Also, both attorneys are officers of the court and both attorneys signed the legal documents. If either or both of them signed their names to false statements, the simple truth is they could be disbarred, even in Frontier Alaska. Just a little levity there.
So Tripp was born on December 27, 2008, apparently at or close to term. That means he was conceived in early April 2008, around the 5th.
As far as Trig is concerned, it means one of two things: either Bristol is not Trig’s mother or Trig was born earlier than April 18, 2008 and she could be his mother. The latter scenario means that the photography session with the Heaths and the media was contrived.
The former scenario means that either we’re completely off base and Sarah is his natural mother or someone else is and it isn’t Bristol. Frankly, I am not sold on going too far afield from those two possibilities. Let’s explore the possibility that Trig was born earlier and that Bristol is his birth mother and Sarah is his adoptive mother. I am going to use a conception date of June 9, 2007 (LMP May 26th) with a due date around March 1, 2008.
In this Part 2, I am going to present a hypothetical timeline that excludes Sarah Palin as the natural mother to the child we know as Trig. I want you to open your mind, consider it, and give us your feedback.
In the world of Architecture, there is the concept of “drivers”. Drivers are the facts and variables that one has to work around to plan a building. They might be load-bearing pillars, location of elevators, heating/AC, electrical, communication or regulations stipulating what the building must have. I am going to take the information I have and approach it from the point of view of what facts and variables drive the birth narrative. I am going to use dates, legal documents, photos and basic knowledge of human physiology to explain what I think occurred. You’ll notice I am not going to apply much in the way of statements by people involved – if I miss something crucial, let us know. Kind of Joe Friday’ish, but I WILL take some leaps. And I am going to start at the end with the Petition for Custody of Tripp.
On February 16, 2009, Greta Van Susteren interviewed Bristol and Tripp was introduced to the world, so we know he existed on that day. Doubt has been cast on his birth date just like Trig’s. We have no birth certificate; just a dubious article in People with questionable sourcing. We have an undated photograph of a presumed Tripp being held by Levi with Levi wearing an ID/security bracelet typical of new fathers. However, we do have evidence:
In the Petition for Custody filed by Bristol Palin on November 4, 2009, via her attorney, Thomas Van Flein, in the Superior Court for the State of Alaska Third Judicial District at Palmer under the heading “Factual Overview” is this opening paragraph: “On December 27, 2008, Bristol Palin gave birth to Tripp Johnston-Palin. It is undisputed that Levi [Johnston – stated earlier in the petition] is Tripp’s father. Although the parties were at one time engaged, they did not marry. Subsequent to Tripp’s birth the couple terminated their personal relationship.”
There is also a Child Custody Jurisdiction Affidavit that appears to be filled out in Bristol’s handwriting and she signed the form under penalty of perjury. It states that, “I, Bristol Palin, say on oath or affirm under penalty of perjury that: 1. The following child(ren) are the subject of the present custody proceedings: Child’s Name: Tripp E. Johnston-Palin, Place of Birth: Wasilla, Birthdate: 12/27/08, Sex: M.” She only indicates one child.
Yes, I know people lie in court all the time. But, there are two facts that could easily be disputed and a third one that would just take a little longer. If Levi read this petition and knew the facts were stated incorrectly, he could do the following: as Tripp’s father he could go to the county courthouse and obtain his own copy of Tripp’s birth certificate to dispute the DOB; he could request and produce a copy of a marriage license; and he could demand DNA testing to prove paternity. He could have done this anonymously through his attorney. But, he did not dispute the facts and in fact, he noted in his legal statements that he agreed with them. Also, both attorneys are officers of the court and both attorneys signed the legal documents. If either or both of them signed their names to false statements, the simple truth is they could be disbarred, even in Frontier Alaska. Just a little levity there.
So Tripp was born on December 27, 2008, apparently at or close to term. That means he was conceived in early April 2008, around the 5th.
As far as Trig is concerned, it means one of two things: either Bristol is not Trig’s mother or Trig was born earlier than April 18, 2008 and she could be his mother. The latter scenario means that the photography session with the Heaths and the media was contrived.
The former scenario means that either we’re completely off base and Sarah is his natural mother or someone else is and it isn’t Bristol. Frankly, I am not sold on going too far afield from those two possibilities. Let’s explore the possibility that Trig was born earlier and that Bristol is his birth mother and Sarah is his adoptive mother. I am going to use a conception date of June 9, 2007 (LMP May 26th) with a due date around March 1, 2008.
The Alaska first family (“Christmas”) photo supports that Bristol would have been about 12-14 weeks pregnant. The undated but possibly October ’07 photo of Bristol with a snug stretchy green top supports that she was 4-6 weeks more advanced in her pregnancy. She was home-schooled and absent from regular school in the fall and winter of 2007, the so-called mononucleosis absence.
There is a 2/6/08 email to her mother that she is in a library thinking it would be a great idea for Piper to get a cell phone so she, Bristol, could text her, Piper. She had a car accident on February 8th; I am ignoring the statement that a witness said she didn’t look pregnant – it could have been a friend or supporter, so we have to discount that. A car accident, even a minor one, can stimulate labor. That moment before impact produces the release of stress hormones. The critical factor is whether those stress hormones might have been produced in significant enough amounts to precipitate labor. The reason for that is hypothesized that those hormones send a signal to the brain that the intrauterine environment has become hostile to the survival of the fetus and the fetus would be better off out. It is a primitive physiological reaction that can produce a severely premature infant. I think she may have been thrown into labor that may have waxed and waned for a few days and then delivered sometime around the 10th to the 15th. We have pretty consistent notations that Trig’s birth weight was a little over six pounds. I am going to use six pounds. A pregnancy is considered at term at 37 weeks and at that time the baby typically weighs around five and one-half pounds, give or take a few ounces. I think Trig was born between 37-38 weeks. The birth announcement card email says he was 18” at birth, again consistent with 37-38 weeks.
It is very difficult to judge the size of the baby in all the photos where he is wrapped in a blanket. I am excluding the Heath photo for the moment. One of the difficult set of facts to reconcile about the photos is how Trig looked so big wrapped up in what we know is the hospital and so dinky in the photos where he is in an onesie at home. How could they be the same baby and how could the February and May dates work? I don’t minimize the challenge here. It’s a bitch. Here are the three variables that I am tossing around: 1) you can’t estimate body size well from a photo of a baby wrapped in a blanket and unwrapped babies reveal that they are indeed smaller than a wrapped baby appears, 2) we know that newborns lose weight in the first week of life, and 3) the dating we have of the photographs in question is highly unreliable and images can be manipulated with software. I think it is possible that the photos we have of a baby being held by Levi in his green shirt and Willow, all in the hospital, and the photo of Piper at home holding the blanketed baby are all the same baby who is a newborn. I think the unwrapped baby is the same baby one to two weeks later. All taken in Feb. ’08. I think the “Johnston” tattoo was photoshopped in. The cake may have been to celebrate the baby’s birth or photoshopped or irrelevant. What is odd about the sepia-toned picture of Sarah and Sadie and the baby is two-fold. The proportions between the size of Sadie and the baby as a unit and Sarah next to them are off a little. Sarah seems too big. If you look closely at the two photos of Sadie holding the baby, they look like they were taken just moments apart, as though Sadie looked up, photo snapped, she looked down and another snapped right away. I say that because her hands seem like they are in the same placement in both photos and it just seems to me that during the staging of Sarah being in the picture that Sadie would just naturally shifted her hold a little at least.
Regardless what it was that prompted Sarah to change her behavior, it seems to have begun in the second half of February 2008 in service of presenting a pregnancy and then a newborn child. From around 2/23 to 2/26, she was in Washington, met with the McCains and attended a conference. When she was on camera, she had her scarves to her waist; when she was relaxing, she was apparently in jeans. The official announcement we know was March 5, 2008. As I said in Part 1, her attempts to appear pregnant were pathetic, but the camouflage obscured her abdominal appearance enough for a fake pregnancy to not be easily or definitively identifiable to the casual observer. She didn’t even bother to move like a late pregnant woman.
In late February, Trig was under six pounds. Six or seven weeks later on April 18th, could he have weighed seven pounds, maybe seven and one-half pounds? I think the baby that Sally Heath is holding on 4/18 and Todd Palin is holding on 4/21 is a bigger version of the baby we saw in the photos I mentioned above who has grown in the intervening weeks.
Okay, now I am really going to “go off the reservation” into crazy talk for a minute. I think there MIGHT be a viable explanation for the ruffled ear. The enlarged photographs are very hard to interpret accurately. There is just too much distortion. Of course the ear cartilage is rather pliable in utero. One thing that could have happened is that the ear got folded over severely up against the pelvic bones and gotten some adhesions holding the fold in place. After a reasonable amount of time, those adhesions could have been snipped and allowed the cartilage to spring back into a more normal appearance with more corrective surgery being done when he is older. Another thing that could have happened is something called amniotic bands. Sometimes some amniotic fluid thickens in places and gets fibrous and becomes a pressure point on sensitive tissue. For example, I used to work with an anesthesiologist who had two fingers that were half as long as normal fingers because of pressure from the amniotic fluid. The fingers did not develop properly and were essentially amputated in utero. In looking very closely at the ruffled ear, I can see where the edge of the cartilage looks folded over in three places I think and I can envision those spots being clipped with scissors, a little cauterization to stop the bleeding, maybe a tiny suture. I have not talked to any ENT surgeon about the ruffling, and I am no expert and, certainly if that is a major malformation, then that is another ballgame. If the defect is relatively minor and repairable, then the photographic evidence as it currently exists blends pretty well together, I think, and helps us stay out of the borrowing babies, stealing babies, multiple babies, switching babies, etc. territory.
Lastly, a mid-February delivery date allows enough time for Bristol’s body to heal enough for sex, to begin ovulating again and conceive in the first week of April. Back-to-back babies as a teenager. That’s a real Wild Ride!
Lastly, a mid-February delivery date allows enough time for Bristol’s body to heal enough for sex, to begin ovulating again and conceive in the first week of April. Back-to-back babies as a teenager. That’s a real Wild Ride!
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