Blog - Laura Novak

What Are The Odds? - A Guest Post by Rationalist

10/11/2011

The other day, Andrew Sullivan posted on the odds of success of conspiracy theories. Though I call myself "Rationalist," I am not by any stretch a numbers geek. Still, I thought it was very interesting, and I believe it is useful for examining the Sarah Palin pregnancy hoax. I especially like it because everyone keeps facetiously asking: "Come on, what are the odds she could have pulled it off?" It's pleasant to have a way of talking about this that doesn't involve subjective opinions about photographs.

So let's take a look, statistically!

Setting aside all preconceived notions about who should have or could have or might have known, as far as I can tell the number of people who absolutely had to be in on the conspiracy at the time is three:

1. Sarah Palin, because she was either pregnant or was not.

2. Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, Palin's doctor, who either delivered Trig at the time and place claimed or did not.

3. Todd Palin, because he likely saw Palin's belly during the seven months she claimed to have been hiding her pregnancy from the public. Even if he did not, he traveled with Palin to Dallas and back while she says she was in labor.

(I'll explain below why no one else logically must have been in on it. But first let's look at these three through the lens of the article Sullivan posted.)

According to this thought-provoking formula, there is an average six percent chance that each conspirator will not fail due to disloyalty or incompetence. (Very easy to see why this makes the chance of success of most conspiracies infinitesimally small.) The formula assumes the conspirators have some incentive - financial or otherwise - to break their silence.

So let's look at this case. Do the odds hold up?

Sarah Palin has zero incentive to tell the truth. Her political identity is tied to being, by choice, the mother of a child with special needs, and she has greatly benefitted politically and financially from this identity. (Some argue that the child with Down syndrome was the clincher for Steve Schmidt in convincing McCain to choose Palin in order to shore up the support of the Republican base.) To reveal she had lied about this defining life event - and wiped tears from her eyes in front of Right to Life groups recalling it - would be political suicide. I would say there is nearly a 100% probability Palin will never willingly confess.

Cathy Baldwin-Johnson - Despite the fact that Palin secured several high profile awards and appointments for her, I cannot see why a respected doctor would have intentionally staked her professional reputation on a hoax, except that as the founder of A Children's Place for abused teens she may have initially become involved from a desire to help a teenager - perhaps Bristol - in trouble. I suspect she was as shocked as anyone when Palin suddenly announced she was seven months pregnant. However, when Palin claimed to reporters that her doctor had advised her to travel for thirteen hours by plane while leaking amniotic fluid, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson joined John McCain and the citizens of Alaska as victims of Palin's propensity for unexpectedly "going rogue." At that point, the doctor was forced to either publicly call the Governor a liar or to admit to malpractice-worthy behavior. Dr. Baldwin-Johnson spoke to a reporter with an attorney present and said only that it was "not unreasonable for her to fly back." Since that time she has refused all interviews and, two months later, rescinded her privileges at the hospital where the delivery supposedly took place.

Regardless of the reason for or degree of her involvement, Dr. Baldwin-Johnson has what might be called a professional imperative to keep the secret, and cannot be legally compelled to speak because she is protected by HIPAA. Like Palin, I put Baldwin-Johnson at close to 100%, as she will likely lose her medical license if the truth is revealed.

Todd Palin - though there have been many rumors of marital discord between the Palins, so far Todd has remained resolutely loyal to the Palin brand. Considering the non-anonymous revelations in McGinnis' book, if anyone ever cracked I would think it would be Todd. But so far the personal and financial benefit has remained high enough not to. Regardless, Todd is protected by the spousal privilege, so unless he decides he's had enough, he can't be compelled to rat. How much can one man take? I give Todd odds of 50/50. We shall see.

Okay, so back to the formula. According to my math, there is about a 17% chance that one of the conspirators will cause failure, or an 83% chance it will succeed. I'd call those odds pretty good for the conspiracy. Add to it a media completely unwilling to look critically at Palin's tall tale, and the odds improve even more.

Still, people ask, "How could no one have talked all these years?"

Well, who exactly would be doing the talking? Just for fun, let's look at everyone else. Forget, please, what would usually happen in most families. Let's just look at what is possible.

The kids. According to Palin herself, Sarah Palin's children were in the dark about the pregnancy for seven months. Setting aside the likelihood that not one of her kids saw her belly in a nightgown ever during those seven months, this shows that a secret of the magnitude of a pregnancy (or lack thereof) is possible in this family.

If Bristol is indeed the mother of Trig, it's even possible she is not in on the conspiracy. She could have given a premature child up for adoption in early 2008, and it could have been in an NICU or foster care until Palin presented it.

Palin's parents. Both Chuck and Sallie are on record as saying they never know what Sarah is up to and anyway, according to Palin, she did not tell her parents she was pregnant. She claims she also did not tell her siblings. So she could easily have not told them she was not pregnant.

Palin's staff. It's hard to believe not one of them would have noticed her pregnancy at the time (regardless of who may now say that they totally knew). Palin's staff handled her entire life - from coffee to per diems for her children to jogging strollers for photo shoots. But there is not one calendar entry for a prenatal appointment and not one email demonstrating a visit to Dr. Baldwin Johnson in the emails that have been released. There is no reason to believe any of her staff was in the loop.

The Johnstons. Whether or not Levi, his sister or his mom were aware of any Bristol pregnancy, there is no reason to think they would have been privy to Sarah Palin's plans, especially if even Bristol was not.

The staff at Mat-Su Regional Medical Center. How could an entire hospital be hoaxed? That is a very good question, and there is an excellent discussion of it here. I won't repeat it, but under very specific circumstances in a small rural hospital it is possible. Regardless, any paperwork relating to the birth - or lack of paperwork if there was none - is protected by HIPAA.

More to the point: if the pregnancy is as Palin described - pre-term, premature rupture of membranes, fetus with Down Syndrome and a hole in his heart, mother of advanced age with a history of miscarriage - how is it possible at all that the baby was admitted to Mat-Su, a facility that is not licensed for twin births? Add to this that Palin says that when she arrived labor was induced, and there is zero chance that if she walked in the front door she would not have been immediately transported to the NICU at Providence Regional Medical Center. There is no chance that the admitting nurse would have jeopardized his or her job by violating the hospital's license.

However, if there are Palins walking the halls with a baby at 7:00 in the morning just after shift change, and Palin's personal physician (who is on staff and a member of the hospital's board) says the baby was delivered during the night and the Governor of Alaska is not to be disturbed in room 11A, would the clerk at the front desk or the nurses who just came on shift have any reason to question it? Further, the baby Sarah's parents showed to KTUU on April 18th is a bruiser. Premature? Hole in his heart? Jaundice? Those conditions would have required extra staff attention. No way would an infant with those symptoms be allowed to be passed around the hallways by relatives and the patient's daughter's boyfriend. The staff at Mat-Su could not have been aware of the conditions Sarah Palin claims her child to have had.

Everybody else: If it's possible - and I believe I've shown it is - that Palin managed to keep her secret from her children, her parents, her staff and the employees of Mat-Su, how likely is it that anyone outside that crucial circle would be any wiser?

So! What I think we have here, is the exception that proves the rule.

Patricia link

10/11/2011 08:29:21 am

Ah,nicely done! Of course, no sane person would think they could get away with it. But, as we know, that hardly applies in this case.

Allie RN

10/11/2011 08:40:41 am

Thanks, Rationalist, for an interesting post. You said,

"Like Palin, I put Baldwin-Johnson at close to 100%, as she will likely lose her medical license if the truth is revealed."

Cracking the nut on this hoax has been elusive thus far. CBJ knows the truth. One of the great questions we might face in life is if we cannot tell the truth about something very wrong without implicating ourselves and therefore facing undesirable consequences, how can we ever find peace in keeping the secret? To quote Amelia Earhart, "Courage is the price that life exacts for granting peace."

Ivyfree

10/11/2011 08:50:55 am

And this story, this fable of her alleged pregnancy and birth was told to a population that considers maternity a near-sacred experience, and a child with special needs to be near-deified. It's amazing the numbers of people I've talked to who gasp, "how can you even THINK such a thing... who would DO such a thing... you think anybody would even think they could get away with such a thing... and a SPECIAL NEEDS baby!" Or words to that effect.

Essentially, the story was told to people who simply are not willing to question it, because it violates so many of our basic values: motherhood, mother-child bonds, the rights of children to be protected and cared for, the right of the special-needs baby to receive the nurturing he requires, etc.

And on top of that, it's a crazy story.

I'm not sure CBJ risks her license. I would be surprised if she hasn't had to explain it to the state medical board already, but it would be confidential. A doctor would explain to other doctors the steps involved- and it's quite likely, I've always believed, that she was as surprised as anyone else when Sarah announced the "pregnancy." And then what could she do? Call a press conference and deny the pregnancy? She wouldn't have known that Sarah WASN'T pregnant because it was not mandatory that Sarah see her for prenatal care. Heck, it isn't mandatory to see anyone for prenatal care, although it would be stupid not to. Sarah IS stupid.

Whatever CBJ's suspicions, that doesn't mean she knew for sure. Without being certain- which she would have been later- what could she have done? At the point that Sarah claimed to have given birth and involved CBJ, the matter was, essentially, ended. At that point, keeping quiet probably looked like the sensible decision.

I wonder if CBJ provides care for any of the Palins now. I bet she told them: I am not your doctor any more.

I've only seen that happen twice in my career, where the doctor has gone to the patient and said, "You need to find another doctor. When you go home from the hospital, you have to find another doctor." And in both cases, it was for chronic noncompliance. And I've been doing this for 37 years.

Ludwig Wittgenstein to CBJ

10/11/2011 08:53:20 am

Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent.

V ictoria link

10/11/2011 09:18:00 am

Hi Rationalist - I like your analysis but I am not sure about your math - what formula are you using? Note that many months ago I wrote another guest blog here, one called "Palin Pregnancy and Probability" which looked at data points that were out there and reasonably independent - and concluded from the analysis that Palin did not birth Trig.

Of course, you're analyzing something different, the probability of a leak. It appears that you gave Sarah and CBJ approximately 0% chance of coming clean, and Todd 50%. Then did you divide Todd's 50% by 3 to get ~17%? Because if you did, that looks wrong to me. The chance of a leak using your assumptions is 50%, not 17%. However, if you're going at it another way, please let me know.

Note that I have worked professionally with probability and statistics.

Furthermore, I think the McCain staff knew, later at least.

Ottoline

10/11/2011 09:22:58 am

Don't forget CBJ's medical letter, which might be a fake she has not repudiated.

Ottoline

10/11/2011 09:25:52 am

If SP had behaved like a normal person after perping the hoax -- i.e., kept her children at home, doing their work, staying out of trouble, not showcased -- -- I bet she would have gotten away with it. Esp 20 yrs ago, before the Internet.

Bill in Baltimore

10/11/2011 09:26:15 am

I've mentioned this hoax to a couple of my family members and they look at me like I'm crazy.Say I spend too much time on the left wing conspiracy websites.Most people can't even entertain the thought of this.Thanks to the courage of a few,at least it is being brought up. I KNOW It happened,few were involved and that has been the main stumbling block for 3+ years.I have no doubt there is a weak link somewhere and she will be exposed.

serena1313

10/11/2011 09:34:14 am

Whether 10 minutes, 10 days, 10 years or more from now, someday someone who is somehow connected to the hoax -- via the hospital or insurance company or otherwise is a member of the Palin family or a close business associate or friend -- has personal knowledge and/or was personally involved, will come forward, as long as their livelihood & family are not put in jeopardy. We just don't know when or who. Nevertheless I feel confident in saying sooner or later Sarah will be exposed.

So until then, all we can do is wait & in the meantime: speculate and go on with our lives.

Cricket

10/11/2011 09:36:10 am

Like Ottoline, I wonder if CBJ actually authored that letter. I would not put it past Sarah Palin to have faked the letter and CBJ was taken by surprise whenit was released. What could she do? With HIPAA, she can't even confirm that Sarah is her patient, unless Sarah gives her permission to confirm that.

Ivyfree

10/11/2011 09:58:22 am

"Don't forget CBJ's medical letter, which might be a fake she has not repudiated."

The thing is, has she even acknowledged that she knows about the letter? There are a number of oddities about it which cast doubt on its authorship. It was released late the evening before election day, and I think it's safe to say that it was an emotionally fraught election day for many. There was a lot of tension that day, and it would be easy for CBJ to say she didn't hear about the letter and didn't know about it. There actually is no requirement that anyone follow the news, or how closely.

Sarah may have had somebody write a letter for her, or she could have asked CBJ for a letter and then altered it, which I think is the more likely scenario. And if she altered it, what, at that point, could CBJ do about it?

Remember Sarah's viciousness and her vindictiveness. Would CBJ have been likely to step forward and say, "That's not what I wrote"? McCain/Palin lost. Whatever use they wanted of that letter, it didn't work. If McCain/Palin had won, Sarah would have had more power to unleash her vindictiveness.

It was over, or at least CBJ could hope it was. She had plausible deniability: she could easily say that while she heard Sarah had released a letter, this did not surprise her as she had written one at Sarah's request, but she did not read through what Sarah released as she not unreasonably believed it to be what she had written.

I doubt very much if CBJ would get into any significant amount of trouble over that letter. "I wrote a letter, she had somebody alter it, I didn't read what she released until much, much later when questions were asked, and I realized it was altered, but what could I do? And the election was over and she didn't win, so there was no harm done."

I'd say that CBJ has a really strong defense, except I think the story could be told in such a way that she can't really be accused of anything. Sarah has always been weird, but would a doctor expect her to alter a letter? And if Sarah did so, how can CBJ be held responsible for that?

comeonpeople

10/11/2011 09:59:30 am

My opinion is that Dr. CBJ has a professional imperative to absolutely come clean about the absurd medical advice associated with her name. She must be willingly and deeply involved in the hoax to NOT do this. I don't know if she broke any laws with insurance fraud , who paid for the fake IV, the linen service after Palin got out of bed, the housekeeping for the room when they vacated, etc etc. Prebably was a cash deal. It seems very unothical for a physician to help hoax a nation. So, I guess, yes, you are right. She must be deeply involved, otherwise she should/would have run to clear her formerly good name.
I can not reconcile in my head any physician having on "record" that it was "not unreasonable to fly" leaking amniotic fluid in a premature high risk pregnancy or inducing labor in an unsafe enviroment.
So, where is the AAFP in this, the College of OB/GYNs? Nurse midwives across the country? CBJ's future patients deserve safe care. CBJ is listed still on the internet as as doctor who does obstetrics. Really? She appears to be pretty risky in her obstetric services. Sure wish she'd clear up a few things for prospective patients.

o/t sort of, 3 of my son's vocabulary words tonight, sure made me chuckle:

repudiate
bristle
incongruous

Brad Scharlott

10/11/2011 10:01:48 am

Of course the odds of exposure could be lessened with payoffs.

V ictoria link

10/11/2011 10:07:46 am

@brad - or with threats.

Jolene

10/11/2011 10:15:59 am

This is absolutely one of the clearest, most concise analyses of the Babygate Hoax I've ever read, right up there with Professor Scharlott's excellent paper. It makes perfect sense and demonstrates exactly how such a huge hoax could be kept secret all these years. Now that women is stirring up trouble between North and South Korea and is a danger not only to our country but internationally. She must be exposed.

Rationalist

10/11/2011 10:19:45 am

V ictoria -

I read the article on sullivan and started thinking whether the 6% odds of each conspirator succeeding applied to our situation.

You will probably laugh at my method. I gave Sarah & CBJ 100% probability of succeeding & Todd 50%. So that's 1 in 6, or roughly 17%.

Beaglemom

10/11/2011 10:20:46 am

Great post, Rationalist! My question is what kind of medical practice does CBJ have now? It seems as if she has tried very hard to slip between the cracks and disappear. Did she willingly give up her hospital rights at Mat-Su? Did she do so to pursue her career elsewhere? It all seems very coincidental somehow. . . .

Ivyfree

10/11/2011 10:28:26 am

"My opinion is that Dr. CBJ has a professional imperative to absolutely come clean about the absurd medical advice associated with her name. "

Sarah said she was not in labor; she knows what labor is and she would not have flown if she was in labor, or as she phrased it in her pseudo-pompous way, "fully engaged in labor activity." CBJ said, "things were calming down and it did not seem unreasonable [for her to fly]." And she said, "She didn't ask for permission to fly."

I don't think there's been anything that indicates CBJ approved Sarah's flight. Of course people can take it like that, but if it comes right down to who actually said what, there's no evidence that CBJ approved the flying of a pregnant woman in premature labor.

Of course she's not going to come out and issue a statement against it. She never indicated she was for it to begin with.

curiouser

10/11/2011 10:42:05 am

@Beaglemom -

Cathy Baldwin-Johnson:

"She serves as the medical director for Alaska CARES, the CAC in Anchorage, and oversees the SCAN (Suspected Child Abuse and Neglect) Teams at Mat-Su Regional and Providence Alaska Medical Centers. She has served on the Alaska Children's Justice Act Task Force since its inception, and is current chair."

http://tinyurl.com/3mltojy

10/11/2011 10:42:32 am

The shift-change aspect is very good.
Also, a hospital like that would have already taken in and dealt with the
Friday night drunks, by dawn that morning.

10/11/2011 10:48:05 am

Wait, it was Thursday night...the same would apply for Thursday night drunks, tho.

V ictoria link

10/11/2011 10:49:20 am

@Rationalist - if Sarah and CBJ will keep their mouths shut for sure but Todd has a 50% chance of leaking, then there is a 50% chance of a leak.

Independent probability scenarios are generally multiplied, not added or subtracted (or divided). You take the complement of the probability of leaking:

Probability of a leak among all three individuals = 1.00 - (1.00 - Probability SP leaks) x (1.00 - Probability CBJ leaks) x (1.00 - Probability Todd leaks)

You have given SP & CBJ 0% chance of leaking and Todd 50% chance of leaking. So the total is 1.00 - (1.00 x 1.00 x 0.50) = 0.50 ... or 50%.

If each individual has a 6% chance of leaking, then the probability becomes
1.00 - (1.00 - .06)x(1.00 -.06)x(1.00 -.06) or 1.00 minus 0.94 cubed, or (at last) about 17%. But the assumptions and approach is very different.

And I don't want to spend more time on this...

LisaB2595

10/11/2011 10:51:42 am

You don't have a baby and then get left alone. The nurses come in regularly to take your blood pressure and massage your uterus to continue to expel afterbirth. One of the reason I left 24 hours into my 2 day approved stay with my third child was because the nurses wouldn't leave me alone. They'd wake me up. "Sorry," they'd say as they wrapped the cuff or pushed on my abdomen. Sheesh, let a girl sleep!

So I don't buy hoaxing a hospital. Collusion, possibly, but I'll throw out two things everyone willfully ignores (and Gryphen wouldn't let through comments.)

1) Pay-offs are a great theory, but remember this is 2007-2008. Palin was not a rich woman at this time. Now, if you want to expand your theory to make her illegally rich somehow, fine, but deal with the fact she doesn't have the money to simply buy this many people's silence at this stage in the game.

2) Palin couldn't get her ex-BIL fired when she was governor without screwing it up. She could keep her super-secret email account secret. She can't even keep her story straight. I'm supposed to believe she's suddenly Machiavelli able to pull off a hoax of this caliber? Just like the Bots' version of Sarah as capable, sweet, and wise doesn't jive with reality, neither does this crafty, patient, Schemer Extraordinaire.

I'm not saying she did or didn't give birth, but no one has satisfactorily answered these issues for me.

Also, why the hospital at all? The Palins have a nice, secluded cabin the baby could have been "born" at. Surprise labor, (later babies come fast, you know) no time to get to the hospital. Show up with the baby for to get it checked out, and your best bud CBJ examines the mother to insure she's OK. No L&D, no insurance claim for that . . .

The whole thing is so FUBAR. I can talk myself into she faked it on some days; on others, I'm like "she is really too stupid to pull this off."

comeonpeople

10/11/2011 11:20:57 am

@Ivyfree
CBJ is ON RECORD as saying it was not unreasonable to fly, whether she said it or not. Sarah is on record saying she was in labor "More laughs, more contractions". CBJ is on record saying things were calming down. Soooo? She knows that how? Did she teleport to Dallas and do an exam? CBJ has not cleared the record.
She (Sarah) didn't ask permission to fly, yet CBJ is on record as saying when you land call me and I'll check you out.. She is not on record as saying go to the hospital don't fly, which is what any other physician on the face of this earth would have suggested.
Can you think of any doctor you work with telling a pt, oh sure, you can eat steak and eggs right before general anesthesia for an elective hernia repair...or better yet, have that patient tell the local paper that his doctor told him to eat steak and eggs before anesthesia and that doctor Not try to set the record straight? Palin's situation is equally ridiculous just deeply rooted in a sinister hoax.
Aggh I'm just so tired of the absurdity.

@curioser and beaglemom: I also saw last week on one of the alskacares website that CBj is listed as specialty "obstetrics".Which i find curious. i'll try to find the link. Before she used to be listed as a FP Physician. I briefly had the thought that CBJ had been lying low, getting the c-section and high risk credentials she would have needed but likely didn't have back in 08 to qualify as a high risk ob FP physician, just to cover some tracks or as part of bargain she took for her role in the hoax. Just a thought.
CBJ also donated between 25k-49K$ "in kind" to the Children's Place at their fundraising gala in April 2011. I guess this means she donates her services to them?
http://www.thechildrens-place.org/documents/TheChildrenPlaceAd.pdf

Curiously right now i can't find the link to the page that lists her solely as "obstetrics". i'll keep seearching.

10/11/2011 11:21:35 am

Wonderful post!

re the nurses allowing a high risk pregnancy through the door, not only would they lose their jobs, but put their livelihood at risk. Something like that could result in losing their license to practice.

Based on the fact that CBJ lost her privileges at MSRMC but not Providence Hospital, I'd bet she was found guilty by the hospital of violating some policy, but not guilty of anything by the Board of Registration of Medicine. I do feel badly for her being Palin's victim.

Dis Gusted

10/11/2011 11:26:47 am

Pay-offs are a great theory, but remember this is 2007-2008. Palin was not a rich woman at this time.

***

she may not have been. However, she had multiple houses, multiple toys, and was charging all kinds of things to the state. She made roughly $100K and her husband made 1/2 that so she had plenty of $$ to buy people off.

If you consider that they may have also been in the trade of prostitution and meth production, the $$ is there.

I read a study that said drugs in AK are moved by snow machine....convenient.

eva marie

10/11/2011 11:40:28 am

I agree with LisaB2595.

That is something I had forgotten about but of course the new mother is not left alone after childbirth,there are nurses coming in all the time.

Hmm, how could she have kept them all away?

And was Trig in the nursery? Or was he kept in her room?

sunnyskies

10/11/2011 11:42:32 am

I can see how CBJ may have been an unwitting accomplice. She was publically implicated by Palin, probably with no prior warning, and all things considered, at that time, she decided to stand by Palin to the extent she could. Note the vague letter re: Trig's birth. She was not perjuring herself. Why she left the hospital two months later seems suspicious.

I would expect that she had to hold herself accountable to various medical boards. Maybe that is the reason she left the hospital. They took away her privileges. Doctors always hang together, and have privacy rights to hide behind.

If I were CBJ and I knew a secret, one that the Palins will do whatever is necessary to bury, I would be afraid. Very afraid. Maybe she has something on the Palins that keep them in check.

Was there ever an investigation into the arsen set fire that destroyed the Wasilla Bible Church, and records that may have revealed something about the Palins? The fire that killed Dar Miller? Wouldn't the fire inspector, or detective in charge of investigating causes of fire, conduct an examination and produce a report? What is the status of these two fire investigations? I think there are some dots here that haven't been connected.

Todd will stick it out as long as his cash cow produces. He holds a secret, and just the threat of exposure could be used as blackmail. He's got the upper hand and he doesn't mind carrying her purse.

I think all the Palin kids except Piper and Trig and Tripp know the truth by now. I can't imagine Willow, the Nancy Drew of the family, wouldn't find the clues and demand an explanation. Bristol knows because of her involvement. Levi, useful until no longer needed, seems to know what he was told. I hope Track has taken charge of his own life and left that crazy toxic family. Bristol will have a difficult time breaking free, she is so dependent on and entwined with her mother. Willow is the only one who could conceivably put together the pieces and present the Mommy Dearest story of the century.

I liked the idea of looking at the conspiracy from an "odds" point of view. All the secrecy surrounding Sarah Palin is worth investigating. I hope the FBI is connecting some of the dots that are coming to light in Alaska. It sounds like a place I never want to visit.

Conscious at last!

10/11/2011 11:43:20 am

O/T -- I have been getting an error message each time I try to access the comments at IM--is anyone else having this difficulty?

jadez

10/11/2011 12:02:03 pm

of course even if this were true(more people knew of the hoax) Many more people were aware after the fact.

the entire hospital staff would know a birth hadnt taken place.

but more to the point...palin Hasn't gotten away with this hoax.

there is not a single piece of proof nor a single eye witness account to her story of birth.

the real untold story is why this hoax hasn't been exposed and why it actually is being covered up by the MSM

10/11/2011 12:02:57 pm

@Conscious at last! Yes, I got an error message too. I emailed Gryphen about it.

Viola-Alex

10/11/2011 12:07:48 pm

I agree Jolene. It's always nice to hear it again, in the simplest form. Thanks, Rationalist!

One thing I'd add, is that when you set the drama in AK, the odds increase for the hoax succeeding. In my opinion, AK is a major character in the hoax.

AK = lots of people who are eccentric and who mind their own business. A smaller population base to notice that something wasn't right. Lots of heavy outer garments.

mxm

10/11/2011 12:10:37 pm

Wonder if the bots are hitting the IM server with a DoS.

Viola-Alex

10/11/2011 12:10:47 pm

Hey, ConsciousAtLast. I get the same error message at IM.

eva marie

10/11/2011 12:23:40 pm

I have been on IM for the past hour with no problem, just refreshed.

I am using Internet Explorer.

ginny11

10/11/2011 12:24:39 pm

@LisaB2595: I agree it doesn't make sense that Palin could have pulled this off. But what makes suprememly LESS sense are the March 2008 pictures of Palin with a flat, flat belly. No baby in there. I don't know how it all went down, but somehow, she pulled it off.
I think the key is to forget thinking Palin planned out any of this very well, or thought ahead with much strategy, etc. I think she just winged it, let people who love and/or are loyal to her (family, friends, political allies, doctor/friend, etc) know at the last second when she was about to do something insane, and just let them scurry like rats to make it work and cover for her. Happens with people like her all the time. I believe this was the gist of Frank Bailey's book, how she got people to become loyal to her and then cover her ass all the time. At some point, they've created the need to cover their own asses too, so that even when they are no longer being blinded by her, they still protect her in order to protect themselves.

Leanne

10/11/2011 12:41:54 pm

I put Todd at slim to none. 90% likely to divulge info. His loyalty is to his family. The Heaths and Palins are close. I do not see a divide ever occurring.

FrostyAK

10/11/2011 12:42:06 pm

IMO, only 3 people knowing is as much a fantasy as the hoax pregnancy itself. $P and her Toady ARE NOT SMART ENOUGH to think up and pull something like this off. CBJ would have to be insane to willingly be one of the 3. $P is the insane one... lest we forget.

The 2(+?) babies and the Dominionists have been left completely out of this theory. Yes, the remoteness of AK is a player, but you need to realize that Wasilla, Anchorage (her office), and Juneau (the capitol) are all players in this farce. That's a population of over 250,000.

@sunnyskies:
The fire investigations have been sealed. NO ONE can access them, no one will talk about them. This is not normal.

Gryphen link

10/11/2011 12:46:32 pm

Blogger was acting up. Everything should be fine right now.

I thought I might bring your attention to this post of mine, which I believe compliments this post by Rationalist:

http://theimmoralminority.blogspot.com/2010/03/sarah-palin-pregnancy-what-are-odds.html

Palinoia

10/11/2011 12:47:06 pm

Great post Rationalist! I believe that few people knew at the outset, at least minimal as possible. I think the collateral damage over time (CBJ may have been one, and the hospital) grew exponentially, but alas, to many "stakeholders" to blow the lid off of it. Each person who would have absolute proof and/or first hand knowledge probably has something to lose by telling what they know. Job, reputation, livelihood in chosen field, etc. and then there is the retribution and vindictiveness of the Palin clan.

Speaking of odds, Gryphen did a GREAT post regarding "the odds" last year. Probably one of his most convincing posts ever regarding the whole of babygate.

http://theimmoralminority.blogspot.com/2010/03/sarah-palin-pregnancy-what-are-odds.html

Palinoia

10/11/2011 12:48:47 pm

I guess Gryphen beat me to it! He just posted the link also.

Conscious at last!

10/11/2011 12:49:31 pm

(IM seems to be ok now)

This is a fun exercise, but I am not sure about what we mean when we say/Sullivan says "pulled it off." Are we talking about everyone being fooled?
Are we talking about the "perps" getting off without any admission of their hoax?

In the case of Palin's faked pregnancy, as early as August 29, 2008, there was that detailed article by Arc XIX in the DailyKos. It was a long and accurate description of the hoax. So obviously someone knew what was going on. Now, three years later, many of us have a pretty good idea of what happened, or at least thousands of us know that she faked the pregnancy.
I have no idea if Palin, or anyone else will ever be held accountable for the charade.

Joie Vouet

10/11/2011 12:49:47 pm

Okay. I'll assume for the sake of argument that Sarah Palin faked a pregnancy and that there is a low probability of any "conspirator" talking.

So there has been a "conspiracy," and the "conspiracy" has been successful up until now. Is there any reason to believe that it won't continue to be successful? Isn't the probability of it failing small?

I'm not saying your math is right or that you've correctly estimated the probability of any of the participants talking or that you've included every participant. I am just wondering what the point of the post is, because it seems to argue the hopelessness of ever proving that there is a "conspiracy." I don't assume that there is a "conspiracy."

FrostyAK

10/11/2011 01:08:53 pm

Has anyone considered that CBJ stated that it was "not unreasonable to fly" because she knew $P was NOT pregnant. If not pregnant, then not unreasonable to fly.

IMO she was railroaded, and may have church pressure not to break this open. It is her moral duty to set things right, however. So far she has done just enough to cover her butt.

10/11/2011 01:09:34 pm

I think it's a crack up to hear about "all of the people" who must be involved - from airline pilots to nurses wiping her brow. THIS WAS NOT A TV EPISODE! There wasn't anybody in the room with Sarah - she was not panting on a bed hooked up to monitoring equipment, with pediatricians and emergency doctors ready to whisk the baby off to save his life, only to be excused while she removed the pillow and produced a newborn. It was a hand off at best, and probably not even that. All she needed was CBJ, and it appears she got her. A couple of snapshots and boom, checked herself out and went back to her other life with a brand spanking new prop.
Has anyone actually tried to contact CBJ now, and tell her if she had nothing to do with the campaign letter she can say so without violating HIPAA? I just wonder, how can CBJ live with herself knowing that her mentally ill buddy is out there destroying lives and dividing countries with every breath?

eva marie

10/11/2011 01:09:47 pm

I've always liked Audrey's take on the odds of Palin even becoming pregnant in the first place.

http://palindeception.blogspot.com/2009/06/how-to-lie-with-statistics-response-to.html

Ottoline

10/11/2011 01:13:03 pm

No error message for me at IM.

My view is that between the end-justifies-the-means RW fundies (like CBJ) and the pervasive corruption in AK, almost everyone has something to hide, and something on someone else. At least for the category of people we have been studying. CBJ might have gotten pulled into this by inches and not willingly, but I don't see that she would topple the Palin/McCain parade when she has plausible deniability as described so well above.

As both McGinniss and our dear MeAgain have said, it's not necessarily a direct threat but the possibility of Palinbots that can vandalize and terrify. Not necessarily a payoff but looking the other way when you know someone else has a meth lab. I just see a complicated evil web with all the AK prostitution, drugs, bullying, beating up the lone black student, domestic abuse, high-school pals in mgmt roles, side businesses and properties that don't pay taxes, big-business interests like Pebble trumping eco-concerns, houses built with sports arena materials that fell off a truck, scorning education, -- just look at all the Palingates that show no signs of being addressed. What an evil snake pit.

Another powerful factor is PERCEIVED threat -- maybe the two fires were random events, but if my personal perception (and that of my best friend) is that they are not, that's pretty powerful. And we know that only very skimpy follow-up reports came out re the causes of those fires.

I too used to long to visit AK, but no more. All that natural beauty, and then the vast corruption in a fragile place.

I loved this post, Rationalist. Thank you! For me, probabilities work only when events are random. When you have competing volitional forces determining an outcome, the only probabilities you can gather are based on past history. Not a lot of data out there on hoaxes. Esp not like this one.

And the heavy hand of the MSM uber-owners squelching this story versus the bloggers and writers who seek to expose it -- this is a relatively new kind of battle in that we have the Internet as a tool. I think the Dan Rather vs CBS was another, and I'd say CBS won. The days of a Watergate may be over.

So it's all the more important that we keep trying. Next milepost is "Fred," right?

Joie Vouet

10/11/2011 01:16:07 pm

I should add that you're making your job harder by insisting on a conspiracy. With that, you not only need to prove that she wasn't pregnant, but also need to prove that there was a cospiracy.

I'm trying to be helpful.

Ottoline

10/11/2011 01:27:06 pm

Joie -- What SP did, per se, has never been the big deal. The big deal has been that once high-up others realized it (or actively enabled it), there was no MSM coverage, on PURPOSE. Because it has served the GOP agenda so well.

But you are right, J. It would be terrific if we could point to the Mar 14 and Mar 26 photos

http://tinyurl.com/2579nff

and the "Aha!" lightbulb would illuminate for newbies. But it isn't working that way, in spite of my fervent belief that it should. Nor are the books, good as they are, accomplishing it.

Any ideas for a strategy, J?

AvidReader

10/11/2011 01:32:08 pm

@joie Vouet

Sarah was not pregnant in 2008 (Shailey says 'toobal'; Levi says Todd was not around);
But pregnancies do happen...to other women;

State Bill 29: The Safe Haven bill. Passed by the house in May, 2007; passed by the Senate in January 18, 2008. (we should ask why it took so long).

sarah signs it on Feb. 11, 2008 (but it won't be the law until May 11, 2008-- 90 days later).

The Safe Haven law protects parents of infants from prosecution should they give up their newborn, so long as they relinquish the infant to law enforcement or medical personnel:
http://rawdata.sarahsinbox.com/12030.pdf

It also protects medical personnel from prosecution for accepting a newborn:
http://rawdata.sarahsinbox.com/12038.pdf

When did sarah say she was due? Second week in May?

Ottoline

10/11/2011 01:42:09 pm

OT, but I pulled tegether some of the Levi+baby pix:
http://i54.tinypic.com/i2u5w3.jpg

Looks to me like:
--green shirt (1, 2, 7) comes first (gold ring plus no arm tattoo, at least not visible)
--3 and 8 come next (gold ring, arm tattoo)
--4 with canula looks like RNC Trig to me, with DS
--5 comes next?
--6 is last (with hospital bracelet) only because his face looks older, sideburns and possible mustache?

Besides the Levi+Keith+baby, are there any others with the newborns?

Ginger

10/11/2011 01:46:05 pm

We can't solve this because of the trolls and everything important, gets swept under the rug. Speaking of trolls, they have practically taken over IM's blog. They keep making Bristol pregnant. Here's a girl that has been on birth control pills since she was 15 (by her own admission) and they have her having up to four babies.

I've told so many people Sarah faked a pregnancy, I'd like to get my credibility back. Perhaps, with Fred's book, that will happen. Will his book talk about the e-mail from the SOA, Benefits Div.? Probably not. That e-mail tells us someone in the Palin family had a baby in April, 2008. That would implicate the RNC and prove they lied about Bristol being pregnant a second time to stop the rumors.

So, I'm going with Fred telling us..."the Bristol had a preemie story."

That should keep the Repub's happy...

AvidReader

10/11/2011 01:52:33 pm

@Ginger

SoA, Benefits Div.? Link, please!

ty

Celia Harrison

10/11/2011 01:54:07 pm

"would the clerk at the front desk or the nurses who just came on shift have any reason to question it?"

You bet they would.

CBJ would not be able to just tell the nurses Sarah Palin was in a room. A doctor admits a patient from the ER or admissions, they can't just bring them in and pick a bed. Rooms are usually assigned by a charge nurse or shift supervisor, the doctor can't just announce someone gave birth in that room, don't disturb her. A clerk would check her in and notify the L/D ward. A bed would be assigned and a nurse would be assigned to the patient. Then the nurse would do a history and assessment on her and settle her in her room. A call would be made to a doctor if she was not already there who would need to come and examine the patient and write orders which the unit secretary and nurse would be working with. Nothing happens without orders in a hospital. Then the night shift would have to give report to the day shift nurses which would make it obvious something was seriously wrong because the nurse giving report would know nothing about the patient. A patient has to have certain things done within a time frame. The nurses would call the house supervisor and CBJ would be contacted and questioned. Then they would contact the medical director.

I have been very outspoken about the problems with rural AK health care. The rural hospitals can have competency and corruption issues, but no doctor can just put a patient in a bed unless lots of staff are in on the scam. There would have been nurses who would have come unglued, night shift or day shift because they are responsible for the patient. After a woman gives birth her fundus needs to be checked and massaged, and pad checks as well. Then there is the baby which has to have certain things done as well.
Anyone wandering about in the area of labor and delivery with a baby would be noticed, infant security is a big concern.
If the L/D unit had no patients and there was no staff they might be able to stage their pictures without anyone catching them. They may have simply asked to use a room for a while saying they needed to have a meeting or someone could have been paid off or threatened for some reason on a slow night if just one nurse was on.

Perhaps Sarah Palin was admitted to the hospital for some purpose other than delivering a baby and the family brought one in the room for show for the visitors.

Way more than three people are in on the hoax, but information has been compartmentalized to keep it secure.

Phyllis

10/11/2011 02:13:29 pm

I've always wondered why Granny and Grandpa were allowed to let a picture be taken with Trig on the day of his birth,yet Sarah apparently refused to let his picture be published on the online nursery page.

Jolene

10/11/2011 02:30:47 pm

@conscious at last---I've heard about that diary by Arc XIX on Dailykos but never read it. Is it available anywhere? Even though I was quite active on Dailykos during the 2008 campaign and highly outraged by McCain's selection of the unqualified Palin, for some reason that diary must've been deleted before I ever got a chance to see it. My question is--is Arc XIX's diary anywhere on the Net?

curiouser

10/11/2011 02:31:16 pm

Thank you Rationalist and Laura for an interesting post. I'm in the same camp, believing very few people needed to be involved in the hoax. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Todd was in the dark.

An interesting tidbit about Mat-Su Regional: CEO, Norman Stephens, resigned effective May 15, 2009.

http://www.adn.com/2009/05/08/789380/mat-su-hospital-ceo-resigns.html

Clue Digger

10/11/2011 02:41:05 pm

Was just out digging for clues on CBJ and came across one minor oddity ...

The link below is to the Vitals.com (one of those free doctor directories) page for Cathy Baldwin-Johnson.

http://www.vitals.com/doctors/Dr_Cathy_Baldwin-Johnson.html

This page says CBJ has had 5 patient reviews but only scored 2 out of a possible 4 stars.

If you click on "Read Reviews" and then click yes on the "I accept the terms of this site" page, you can see the only comment left by a patient.

It was posted on 9/1/08, the patient rated her at only 1 star, and the comment reads:

"FELT BETRAYED
Please spare yourself and your family the frustration I went through"

Hardly an earth-shatterer ... but kinda weird.

Also interesting are the minutes from an Alaska State Legislature House Judiciary Standing Committee meeting on 2/9/05 about HB 99, aka the "Crimes Involving Controlled Substances" Bill.

Starting on page 9, CBJ's very knowledgable remarks about meth and its effects on kids are summarized, including the possibility of birth defects (though obviously not DS since its genetic).

It did, however, get me wondering if Bristol's drug use might have had anything to do with her missing school ?

(The stats on Wasilla's meth labs are frightening. But did Palin do anything about it as Governor ?)

Finally, I thought I'd read somewhere that CBJ was also an Evangelical, thus suggesting another possible reason for whatever assistance she provided in the Trig hoax, but now I can't seem to find any mention of her church affiliation.

Sorry if this all seems like pointless trivia ... it's only offered in the hope that something might "click."

Clue Digger

10/11/2011 02:50:05 pm

@Jolene

The only record of Daily Kos' ArcXIX posts I've found so far are photographs (taken by somebody who didn't know how to do screenshots) which were posted on flickr:

http://tinyurl.com/3sfap5y

Rationalist

10/11/2011 02:50:37 pm

Oh, man. I've been reading on my phone and it's been impossible to respond this evening. Everyone has made such great points. I'm going to respond to a few.

First, though, let me say that I'm truly chagrined not to have linked to Gryphen's "What are the odds" post in the body of my own post. It's one of his very best, and I've referred to it many times and emailed Sullivan about it too.

Here's the link again: http://theimmoralminority.blogspot.com/2010/03/sarah-palin-pregnancy-what-are-odds.html

Let me say that my post was written mostly to address skeptics who say that no one could keep a hoax this big quiet. But I completely agree with Serena1313 that it's just a matter of time before someone - and there are so many choices - decides they've had enough.

Ivyfree, comeonpeople Up, sunnyskies and Beaglemom and everyone else who's speculating about CBJ - I get the feeling that CBJ has been waiting for the other shoe to drop for 3 years. And curiouser - I find it fascinating what she's up to now. It supports my suspicion that she got roped into this whole sordid mess trying to help a teenager in trouble. It also lends credence to the idea that there are some terribly sad facts at the heart of the hoax.

V ictoria - I'm embarrassed to have attempted statistics in the company of a real statistician. Still, you know what your numbers show? That a conspiracy is only as strong as its weakest link. I give Todd 50%, and your math gives all 3 of them together 50%.

LisaB2595 - totally see where you are coming from. And yet: somehow she did it.

FrostyAK - I don't think CBJ was willing, but was collateral damage, as Palinoia aptly put it. Still you raise a good point. The Dominionists add a layer I'm not even sure how to comprehend.

(more in next post)

FrostyAK

10/11/2011 02:51:28 pm

@Celia - remember the administration of that hospital was put in place by $P. They were/are Xtian fundies, if not outright Dominionists. Could they not have assigned that room to $P for whatever purpose their friend, the governor, asked? What would/could they do when they became implicated in the hoax as well? Other than keep EVERYone out of the area till $P left. Remember, these are all 'good Xtians' working together to make abortion illegal for all.

It seems as if all they did was take CBJ's privileges away for a while...

curiouser

10/11/2011 02:52:31 pm

Wouldn't the governor of the state been able to call Mat-Su and request a birthing suite and complete privacy? Palin was on the Valley Hospital Board of Directors for at least the four years 2001-2004 and had continuing relationships with serving board members and probably the CEO. Suppose she told the CEO that CBJ was going to attend the birth and would provide private nurses. I don't think she could have pulled this off if hospital nurses were attending her. She could have been admitted with an alias or, perhaps, not formally admitted.

Clue Digger

10/11/2011 02:53:49 pm

@Jolene

SCRATCH my last post ... the photos do not show the Palin posts.

Sorry, I shoulda read 'em first.

Phyllis

10/11/2011 03:11:58 pm

@Jolene

This is not the original ArcXIX post.It is a copy that some one put up on their blog.

http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article17293

SLQ

10/11/2011 03:13:47 pm

AvidReader said, "The Safe Haven law protects parents of infants from prosecution should they give up their newborn, so long as they relinquish the infant to law enforcement or medical personnel."

That's a rather simplistic way to put it. The Safe Haven Law protects parents of infants from prosecution who ABANDON their infant. It would not apply to parents who give up their child for adoption through normal channels.

The timing of the Safe Haven Law (the normal, long legislative process, as well as her delay in signing it -- I believe it sat on her desk for 10 days or so), indicate this is a red herring.

Rationalist

10/11/2011 03:14:36 pm

Joie Vouet - my point is really just to refute the notion that the hoax couldn't have happened because too many people would have to keep quiet. Also, I guess I'm trying to point out that it really isn't a conspiracy (see my letter to Andrew Sullivan: http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/04/wimpy.html)

Totally agree with FrostyAK that CBJ's statement "not unreasonable to fly" was carefully recommended by her attorney. Add that attorney to the list of people who are legally protected from telling the truth.

I need to think about Celia Harrison's and Clue Digger's comments for awhile. Verrrrry interesting.

Clue Digger

10/11/2011 03:42:57 pm

@Jolene

Okay, finally found ArcXIX !

Another blogger (SuzieQ) re-posted it after Daily Kos took it down:

http://tinyurl.com/6f47l9

Here's another reposting at a site called oped.com :

http://tinyurl.com/44ztwr5

(Between the two, you might see all the pix but then, it's "funny" how often Palin pix get scrubbed.)

elizabeth

10/11/2011 03:49:51 pm

The #1 number one reason this hoax has not been exposed is because NO ONE has forced Palin to be held accountable for the truth.

She has been systematically and very carefully shielded from anything that is unscripted. She has never, ever been asked to address the specifics and contradictions of the crazy birth story. (Except for that uncomfortable ADN interview at the very beginning with Todd and her hemming and umming and trying to cover up for her father's big mouth.)

But since that day - nothing - not one word - to explain, confirm, clarify, correct or assure that she did indeed give birth to a DS baby in April 2008.

And this is why this 'conspiracy' has survived.

I can't help but believe that she is or was receiving protection from high places to protect her lie. And it is a lie because if it wasn't a lie she wouldn't need this protection, the truth would have come out a long time ago.

I also think she had high level protection after she was picked by McCain mainly to cover their sorry asses for picking this freak in the first place.

I also would like to believe that if she keeps shooting off her mouth like she did in South Korea that perhaps someone might decide she really isn't worth protecting as she really is a dangerous loose cannon.

siubc link

10/11/2011 04:05:34 pm

Dar Miller used to be a neo-natal nurse practitioner. Interesting.

See the ADN article:

http://bit.ly/qGIbUk

Anonymous

10/11/2011 05:55:17 pm

Interesting, well-written post.

Has anyone heard from Me Again?

I am getting worried about her.

Clue Digger

10/11/2011 05:55:51 pm

Some interesting info re: CBJ from a 9/22/08 post at oped.com ...

(Note: the numbers in brackets are source notes in the original article. Unfortunately, now that Orwell's "1984" has come true, most of the source notes are dead links which is truly "double-plus-ungood.")

"Checking Matsu Hospital records, the only hospital that she is affiliated with, we find that Dr. Baldwin-Johnson delivered only three babies in the previous eighteen months: on Feb. 7 2008[12], Oct 3, 2007[13], March 17,2007.

"In all three cases, she was not the mother’s physician.

"There are two cases listed where Baldwin-Johnson was the mother’s doctor, but not the delivering physician: Dec. 18, 2006[14], and Jan 27, 2008[15].

"There was not a single time during the prior eighteen months that Doctor Baldwin-Johnson delivered one of her own patient’s babies at Matsu Hospital; three times she delivered other doctors’ patient’s babies, and twice other doctors delivered her patient’s babies.

"Thus delivering her own patient’s baby was an unusual event, rather than a normal one for Dr. Baldwin-Johnson."

http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/diarypage.php?did=9539

Haven't decided yet if the insomnia gives me time to dig for clues, or if digging for clues gives me insomnia ...

Phyllis

10/11/2011 06:17:50 pm

Clue Digger

Some people need to get a grip. There were a whole lot of babies born during those time periods that were never listed on the online nursery and that's where this bullsnot came from about how many babies CBJ delivered.

comeonpeople

10/11/2011 09:02:43 pm

@celia:
CBJ probably told staff she had private dutiy nurses for hr high profile client..but they would still need to be properly credentialed and have doe all hospital credentials to work there I would HOPE.
@Elizabeth:Exactly, no one of "importance" has put professional pressure on MatSu or CBJ or Palin about the hoax. It they did, this would fall faster than an icicle on a hot day.
@cluedigger: the fact that CBJ might not possibly have been credentialled with requisite continuing ed to attend a high risk pregnancy needs to be followed up on. I am trying to do this with the AAFP.

search4more

10/11/2011 09:04:13 pm

The Beyonce story:
-----------------------

I don't know if any of you have seen the post Gryphen did about Beyonce and the possibility she may be faking her pregnancy, but I urge you all just to take a few moments to have a look at the video of her sitting down.

http://bit.ly/pHO5FQ

I like Beyonce and I don't want to see her career negatively affected, but it seems to me that if this is in fact true then it is actually a good opportunity because of the way the media works. I'm not sure if any of you have ever noticed but if the media report on a story and it gets traction, then that tends to lead them to report many similar types of stories. For example say there is a very bad dog attack and a child is hurt. The story makes waves and a public debate starts about the safety of dogs. Every week a dog attack happens somewhere in the country and because there is a public debate about dog attacks these stories get promoted up the order and are reported on. This then distorts the public's understanding about the number of dog attacks that are occurring. This type of media cycle happens with crimes, child abuse, gun crimes etc. All these terrible things are constantly happening. The public's understanding about them though is dictated by the number of media articles about them and not from authoritative statistics. In the UK for example, the fear of crime has risen over the last decade whilst the statistics say crime has dramatically fallen. Apparently that has happened in all western countries for some reason.

Sorry getting long winded. My point is that if the Beyonce story is true and it breaks, then at that point the Palin story has a higher chance of getting traction. Anti Palin blogs can NOT force the Palin hoax story into the media because they are not trust worthy sources in the eyes of the media. The Beyonce story is a celebrity story and tabloid in nature and so it will be broken by tabloid and entertainment news sources. It's these sources who would then have to pick up the Palin story for it to get traction. At the point that the Beyonce story breaks (if it's true) something has to happen like a new picture of Palin in 2008 or a source coming forward to propel the Palin baby hoax story forward.

V ictoria link

10/11/2011 09:05:06 pm

@Rationalist - yes, mathematically, the conspiracy cannot be stronger than the weakest link (I don't feel as if I have shown it because that is true by definition). The conspiracy can be weaker, if there is some chance that the others will leak.

I think you give Todd a rather high chance of leaking though. He has been paid well to stay silent, and he must have a good idea of how the Palin bots work. If he is fond of Trig, as is reported, will he want to deny paternity?

I also think there are several people who know but who would have difficulty proving it in such a way that they are believed by our lousy media. These include friends and co-workers who have heard or seen things. Consider Shailey Tripp, who knows that SP checked "not pregnant" when getting a massage - she has received very little attention. I think that this could also include MeAgain, who has given us really interesting information - and I think it's probably real, given the detail and SP's behavior afterwards. MeAgain may have a conduit to the gossip and even the truth, but that's not the same thing as being able to produce DNA tests or a birth certificate.

There are some people who would be believed simply if they spoke, because they're in positions where they would know: anyone in the family, health workers, the McCain staff. But they all have powerful reasons to stay silent. However, there are four kids. Chances are not so small that one of them will eventually break free.

search4more

10/11/2011 09:17:15 pm

@comeonpeople wrote,

"who paid for the fake IV, the linen service after Palin got out of bed, the housekeeping for the room when they vacated, etc etc"

I have a question about HIPPA. I'm just going to write it as a series of questions. :-)

-Would it be against HIPPA for the hospital or someone working there to disclose how many doses of a certain drug were dispensed on a certain day (eg, the drugs needed to induce a birth)?
-Would the laundry service who washed the sheets be able to say how many sheets they washed?
-Would the maternity ward be able to say how many IV's they used on a particular day?
-Would the anaesthetist or [insert other relevant specialist post here] be able to disclose the number of hours they worked on a particular day?

So basically the people involved are not directly commenting on a patient, but are giving information that is useful. There are many pieces of equipment that needed to be used in the "delivery" of Trig. There would have been a load of drugs used. The hospital keeps track of the equipment because it has to be sterilised. The hospital keeps track of the drugs because they are dangerous and expensive and need to be constantly restocked.

10/11/2011 09:24:55 pm

Mat-Su Rehional Medical Center is not beholden only to those under Sarah's thumb. They are part of a large national company . Such a hoax perpetrated by many staff would put the company's reputation at risk. Something bad enough would seriously damage the company's plans for future development across the country. There are corporate-level people who would be looking over the shoulder of the CEO.

Would it be unlikely that a physician would offer a tour of the hospital (or just the maternity ward) to prominent community members, prospective parents, or others?

I'll have to read that study of Sullivan's. I wonder what the timeframe is. Is a co-conspirator likely to blow it during the first 6 months? 1 year? 10 years?

10/11/2011 09:33:25 pm

@sear Nfld ore, I can't speak to your question directly. I can tell you this: many reports about health care provided do not DI lose the number of procedures if it is less than ten. This is to prevent a patient potentially being identified.

So even if MSRMC published the number of pitocin doses per day, if there were fewer than ten administered on a given day it would show as NA.

Ivyfree

10/11/2011 10:00:08 pm

"-Would it be against HIPPA for the hospital or someone working there to disclose how many doses of a certain drug were dispensed on a certain day (eg, the drugs needed to induce a birth)?"

No, but it is irrelevant. An IV pitocin induction is mixed into an IV and administered. The dosage (and I don't know what it is) is standardized and it would be increased carefully if needed- that is, the IV flow rate would be increased. It's not like the pharmacy would give half a dozen pills and that's not likely to be enough. So no, you couldn't tell. And it's not unlikely to have more than one woman being induced- and you'd have no way of knowing.

"-Would the laundry service who washed the sheets be able to say how many sheets they washed?"

Laundry is done by the pound. No, they couldn't.

"-Would the maternity ward be able to say how many IV's they used on a particular day?"

They wouldn't have any way of knowing. Not everyone has an IV. Sometimes it takes more than one attempt to place the IV. Nobody would have any idea how many got used on a certain day four years ago: I can't even tell you how many I used yesterday, although if I had yesterday's schedules I might be able to go through and figure it out... and that wouldn't tell me how many IVs anesthesia used on our patients when they were putting in IVs.

"-Would the anaesthetist or [insert other relevant specialist post here] be able to disclose the number of hours they worked on a particular day?"

Not likely. Maybe they'd be able to figure out how many hours they were on call/available, but that doesn't mean they'd be able to tell you how many hours they actually worked- and if they did, that information is confidential, because it's part of their employment record.

LisaB2595

10/11/2011 10:00:49 pm

@dis gusted

If you'll remember, they didn't buy the cabin solo; it's a joint property. Not exactly the move of the folks with money to burn.

Sure, Todd has toys, but so do LOTS of Alaskans. There's more planes per capita in Alaska than anywhere else in the world. Snowmachines are not unusual, particularly when the government gives every man woman and child a PFD check annually. Trust me, come August, the PFD ads and specials are running for big ticket items. The Palin's cleared AT LEAST $6,000 annually in PFDs alone.

Sure, Sarah had a decent job--before she quit it. Todd too, but do you realize what the cost of living is in Alaska? A 12 pack of Coke will run you $6 if it's not on sale. Anything fragile, heavy or bulky---chips, toilet paper, canned goods---you pay a premium for. It's not a cheap place to live, and the Palins had four kids. They were upper middle class, no doubt, but not RICH by any stretch of the imagination.

They did not have the scratch to buy off people for this. Remember, you're asking some people to put their actual livelihoods at risk. If you want to make them crime lords, fine, but you're going to have to do more to impress me than decide they were. (Where the hell is the meth lab thing coming from? The Valley has a meth problem = Palin's must be in charge of it? Sorry, that math isn't impressing me.)

And don't you think Trooper Wooten would have been privy to at least Valley *rumor* of his ex-in-laws being crime lords? And he has what motivation for keeping quiet about it?

What's next?

10/11/2011 11:00:17 pm

As per the ADN article mentioned above by siubc:

"Miller spent the last eight years as a nurse with Mat-Su Regional Homecare and Hospice..."

Mat-Su Regional Homecare and Hospice is part of Mat-Su Regional Medical Center.

This establishes another strange connection to the hospital.

viola-alex

10/12/2011 12:05:08 am

Now we're cooking. Have you seen the Bristol Timeline built by "Jen"? I've longed for something like this-- and here it is. A visual compendium, in time ordered sequence.

http://www.tiki-toki.com/timeline/entry/11364/BP/

If you have photos that need to be included send to IM. G has a post on this up.

It took me while to figure out how it works. Slide the white box right or left, at the bottom of the screen.

As G says, "It takes a village." Clearly, it takes a village outside of AK.

lilly lily

10/12/2011 12:10:39 am

If Me again is authentic Sarah Palin is paying a price for her hoax. Right now 7500 a month. Of course she has the funds.

Whoever Trigs parents really are, would they know this was their child?

The doctor is the lynchpin. Was Sarah ever examined? Did she deliver a child on April 18, 2008? Who cares about the creepy wild ride. Did she or did she not deliver Trig out of Sarah Palins womb and vagina.

The doctor knows. The doctor is as culpable as Sarah Palin in this fraud.

Anonfornow

10/12/2011 12:19:12 am

I know some people think Sarah isn't smart enough to concoct a hoax like this, but the truth is that Sarah did a LOUSY job with this farce. If she'd done a good job, we wouldn't be here.

All kinds of people know she didn't give birth to that baby. It's an open "secret." You can be sure Ivy Fry and Meg Stapletongue and several other members of her staff know. Van Flea and people in his office. Whoever is now taking care of Trig. Willow and Bristol's past boyfriends. Britta and her parents. Whoever Bristol stayed with while she was pregnant the various times--presumably Sarah's sister, and perhaps even Sarah's Austin cousins. The staff in CBJ's clinic who know Sarah didn't come in for prenatal care but Bristol did. The staff who was on duty that night at MatSu and know what they did and did not do. The NICU staff who saw the Palins come in for months while they were taking care of Trig. The list is very, very long.

The problem is, people like Van Flea, the hospital and CBJ's staff are bound by professional ethics. People like Fry and Stabletongue would be dismissed as "disgruntled ex-employees" if they spoke; they also have had a front row seat to what happens to people who cross the Palins. The girls' boyfriends are just greasy punk kids and who would believe them? Family are tied by familial expectations.

Even Wooten probably knows, because his kids would tell him, but he no doubt is keeping it quiet to protect the kids--Trig, Tripp, Bristol, maybe even Piper (imagine the disillusionment when she finds out, as she will). Remember him saying he and his wife basically raised her kids for four years? He obviously still feels some affection for them.

Add to the list the McCains and a host of their staffers (you can be certain Sarah screamed at Bristol within their hearing, "Take your $%# kid!) and by extension a LOT of bigwig Republicans and their contacts have been told. The number here easily swells to hundreds if not thousands (people in politics and journalism love to gossip because it shows they are "in the know"). Only, these people can't talk because it would make McCain and the Republican party look like the shits they are, or they can only say, "Well, my cousin's husband told me...."

This story will not break into the public consciousness until someone in a central position tells the truth. That means one of Sarah's kids, CBJ, Trig's father, Todd. But lots and lots of people know, and if it breaks, they will all come crawling out of the woodwork.

Notice I said "if" not "when." I do think someone told Sarah in no uncertain terms, "Bow out of the race NOW or we'll tell the truth about Trig." So she quit. I can see the rest of these people whispering about it for the remainder of their lives, but that's all. Only if Bristol, Willow, or Todd need to make money in the future will we hear a semi truth, carefully crafted to make them all look good.

I can remember back in the days of Palins Deceptions, being sure every day we were THIS CLOSE to breaking the story. It's been three years now.

Ivyfree

10/12/2011 12:35:45 am

"Palin's situation is equally ridiculous just deeply rooted in a sinister hoax. "

Of course it is. I'm just not convinced that CBJ was a willing accomplice. I think she was persuaded to stay quiet about Sarah taking Bristol's baby, and found she got in over her head. I think Sarah used her ruthlessly, and CBJ's been trying to keep the downlow ever since.

"re the nurses allowing a high risk pregnancy through the door, not only would they lose their jobs, but put their livelihood at risk. Something like that could result in losing their license to practice."

Of course they would not. Are you kidding? The nurses have NO say over what patients get admitted. They get a phone call saying that an admit is on the way, and then, when the patient arrives and is assessed, if there is a high risk, they tell the doctor that it's outside their scope, and if the doctor doesn't cooperate with transferring the patient, they tell the house supervisor, who theoretically at least would lean on the doctor and call in further administrators if s/he didn't cooperate in moving the patient elsewhere.

But the nurse, on the unit, is bound to do her best for that patient even if she knows it's beyond the scope of the hospital and even if it's beyond the scope of her abilities. It's a classic catch-22: if you take care of the patient who is beyond your capabilities, you are liable for that; if you don't, then you are liable for that too.

Most nurses I know would do their best for the patient.

I don't know how the whole scenario played out, but I think it's possible that Sarah just showed up with a baby, put herself to bed, got family pictures, and left the next day. She's nuts enough.

daisydem

10/12/2011 12:39:35 am

Anonfornow: I do like your comment. You wrap it up very nicely ... I don't like your last comment, but that is because I think it may be true. I am one of the originals ... I was on PD almost from the outset of that blog. It has been a long three years. And my bottle of champagne still waits.

Joie Vouet

10/12/2011 12:39:44 am

Ottoline @ 20:27:06

I am curious about which is the hoax: 1) Sarah was pregnant or 2) Sarah faked it.

It's possible that someone either out of political or personal enmity (or both) claimed that sarah faked it, and the idea resonated with some people who repeated it. I don't believe any of the current bloggers are hoaxing you, although in either case they may be keeping a hoax alive.

The idea may have first appeared in comments at Anchorage's Daily News, then there was a diary at Daily Kos. Daily Kos' management deleted the diary, but they're hardly Palin supporters. The NY Times reported rumors at the convention about Sarah faking it, but was told by the McCain campaign that Bristol's pregnancy was announced to quell those rumors.

It might be interesting to see the formula alluded to by Andrew Sullivan applied to both "conspiracies," 1 & 2, above.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 12:49:35 am

Someone has seen and processed the birth certificate the Palins don't want to show publicly.

Palin's lawyer Van Flien must know quite a bit. Based on Levi's book, Van Flien was one of the first people Palin told about Bristol's pregnancy.

I also think senior people in the hospital have knowledge. Palin's official birth story would have provoked an internal inquiry to understand why Palin was induced at MatSu instead of transferred. I think the hospital was an unwitting participant. It's hard to believe they would have agreed in advance to this particular story line.

I don't know enough about hospital accreditation or insurance to comprehend the full risks. But if there was a possibility of the hospital losing insurance or having it's birthing center shut down, then many people would have had a strong motivation to keep the results of the investigation internal.

I agree with both @LisaB2595 and @Ginny. Careless Palin concocted the ridiculous labor story and had her office send out press releases Friday AM. And then other people were forced to swoop in to clean up the mess. Some participated out of loyalty and others out of self interest.

And in Apr-May 2008, no one knew that Palin's pregnancy story would be a factor in a presidential election. Nobody would have predicted that Palin would be retelling her birth story for fame and profit.

Unfortunately, I think all these parties I mentioned are under some type of confidentiality or non-disclosure arrangements. Maybe someone will give a deathbed confession but that could be a very long time away.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 01:09:09 am

@Joie Vouet, we know from Palin's own emails that she was aware of rumors that Bristol was pregnant. These rumors circulated before and after Trig's birth. These rumors were even discussed on an AK radio show.

Assume you had pregnancy that was unusually small and that you chose to keep secret for 7 months. When you learn that your small size and your secrecy has created suspicion about your teenage daughter, what would you do?

What possible moral reason does Palin have for keeping Trig's birth certificate private--particularly at the expense of her teen daughter's privacy and reputation? How do you explain this?

Canucklehead

10/12/2011 01:16:37 am

Let's not forget that there may not have been any laws that were actually broken by this hoax. It may be just a secret shared by a few people rather than an actual criminal conspiracy. Despite the conventional wisdom, there are many examples of big secrets that were kept by many people for long periods of time; some of earth-changing import. Just one example is Bletchley Park. About 6000 people were in on the secret yet it didn't come out to the public's attention until about 30 years later. Sullivan's 6% rule is not universal. When people think they have a good reason to keep a secret, many of them will.

Viola-Alex

10/12/2011 01:21:02 am

Agree with you, AnonforNow.

The issue is not WHO knows the truth about the hoax, so much as WHAT PROOF is required to break it.

Even if CBJ (or even Todd!) stepped forward with the truth, it would be their word against Sarah's, unless there were some kind of concrete proof. That was what made me believe in MeAgain, was her discussion of what would constitute irrefutable proof of the Pregnancy Hoax.

And what would that be?

A birth certificate. A birth parent with proof of having birthed Trig. A health employee with records. A lawyer who drew up guardian or adoption papers. An insurance worker.

Dar Miller died. Sherry Johnston was arrested. I'd say both women had some kind of proof. Maybe even Shailey.

april march

10/12/2011 01:23:24 am

One of my favorite TV shows was The Sopranos, the fictional story of a mob boss. It must have been based on real life people. In one episode, a witness sees three men enter a cabin in the woods. He hears shots, and then he sees only two people leave. On looking in the cabin, he sees that the third man lies dead in a pool of blood, bullet holes throughout his clothing and body.

At fist, the witness is a good citizen and calls the police. He even says that he thinks he might be able to identify the two men he saw leaving the cabin. When he learns that one is the mob boss, Tony Soprano, he takes the card from his contact at the FBI, tears it up and claims that he can't remember anything at all.

Yes, that's fiction. A crime was committed and there was no conspiracy. The guy who accompanied Tony is part of the gang, so he is sworn to secrecy. No one confronted the witness. He knows enough about life in his part of the world to keep his mouth shut. That same story exists in real life, too.

Sarah didn't need much of a conspiracy to announce that she was pregnant. Let's just assume that it's her own daughter, Bristol, whose teen age pregnancy will complicate Sarah's ambitions for higher office. Sarah begs the kids to let her adopt the child. The kid will be better off, and it will enhance her credentials with some voters. We can even add the fact that the baby has been born prematurely, has already been diagnosed with DS and/or other disabilities, and is expected to live.

Sarah can offer better medical care, and the DS child will be like the one that a conservative radio host adopted, a big credit with the Right to Life movement. The parents of the premature DS infant refuse. Sarah Palin, the Governor of Alaska, announces that she is pregnant and expecting in two months. Who is going to speak out against her and contradict her? At first, the few people who do know the truth think about ways to discredit Sarah. No one will believe two teen aged kids. If the father of the baby (or someone in his family) is threatened, they won't talk. That's not a conspiracy. That's just self-protection. It's like the witness saying that he didn't see anything.

Sarah's own daughter can't speak out. Sarah could claim that the kid was on drugs, and put her away for rehab. Todd's desire for power out weigh any pangs of guilt. No, he likes the idea of Sarah having power and money. It comes to him, too. The doctor can't say anything either. All Sarah has to do is see that doctor once a year for a regular checkup, and the doctor, thanks to HIPPA, cannot speak publicly about her patient. Add Bristol's yearly checkup, and the doctor can't talk about Bristol, either. If Sarah knows one thing that the doctor did that could get her in trouble, silence is guaranteed.

Sarah had already been governor, getting away with saying things that people did not bother to correct. It was easier to keep their job, and not incur the wrath of a very vindictive person. Anyone in Alaska could see how the Palins treated their former brother-in-law, Wooten, to know what would be in store for them. The way that Sarah and Todd tore into Wooten echoes Tony Soprano's tactics. Anyone who watching the treatment that the guy (and his boss, Monegan) were getting would take the object lesson to heart and just not see or hear anything, like the witness in the TV program.

There are only a few incentives for anyone to talk. If Sarah decides to kick Todd to the curb, hires a lawyer and screws him out of every penny that he thought that he had coming to him, he just might be motivated to tell some secrets.

He has to be careful to make sure that he doesn't suffer any liability before he talks. The same would go for Levi. Somewhere, each of them have something that they could be blackmailed over, guaranteeing silence.

lilly lily

10/12/2011 01:35:07 am

I now think of Palin in her security cheifs words.

Not a mama grizzley, "a rabid wolf who lieave a trail of blood behind her".

a doctor dishonor. A child who didn't get the proper care while she lugged it around for show. Glasses? hell no, he looked like a frog. Remember her with the picture book in the bus. Pictures upside down, looking back to front. The child shows some interest she flips faster. The child rebells she hands it off as she smiles to the photographer and does her spiel. Mission accomplished, she is reading to the child. But the child squawks so by by toddler.

It will blow someday, and McCain's camp knows. The RNC knows. Many in Alaska know. It will blow up in her face eventually.

The redacted e-mails are there waiting.

Jolene

10/12/2011 01:35:58 am

Thx to Clue Digger and Phyllis for giving me the links to that dailykos diary by Arc xix. It amazes me that I missed this story at the time. Kos must've deleted that diary very quickly, for I read and commented on many a diary about Sarah Palin after her selection by John McInsane. My hat's off to those of you like DaisyDem who've been on this story for 3 years! Frank Bailey's book "Blind Allegiance" actually got me started thinking about the babyhoax, when he pooh-poohed the theory in his book. "What babyhoax?" I wondered. Then I read G. Dunn's excellent "The Lies of Sarah Palin" and he carefully outlined the "wild ride". From there I googled "Sarah Palin Trig" and voila! Here I am.

Again, thanks for those links.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 01:37:52 am

@Viola-Alex, the Johnstons revealed far more negative information about the Palins after Sherry's arrest than before. If they had information about Trig it has not been sufficient to negotiate access to Tripp.

We have no evidence that Dar Millar's family or friends believe her death was criminal or that the fire investigation was inadequate. Her obituary said she stopped practicing NICU nursing when she moved from OR to AK.

We also have zero evidence to suggest that Millar would betray or sell patient information. I think it's unfair to this woman's reputation to imply this with no evidence.

lilly lily

10/12/2011 01:39:53 am

There has to be some loophole somewhere to get this crazy lady.

A doctor dishonored, because she may well have been a decent woman before Sarah pulled her little scam. Of course no crime has been committed unless that nurse burned to death in her house is involved, and some hired hit man did the job. If there is a crime, like murder, I think any doctor has to divulge what they know. And that doctor would have to know if that nurse had been hired to care for the infant.

colacarat

10/12/2011 01:46:08 am

Jolene,

Here is a link to a captured version of the original DailyKos article, which includes the comments.

http://tinyurl.com/3c59p8p

(I haven't done a TinyURL before; I hope that works).

FrostyAK

10/12/2011 01:50:00 am

After the crap salad $P spewed in Korea, she should be arrested for treason. Or as a terrorist.

Then none of this would matter anymore. Once it no longer matters, THEN maybe people will come forward with the proof needed.

Exp:Nov.05/08

10/12/2011 01:53:13 am

This is a great post. Thanks, Rationalist.
Sarah might have been AT Mat-Su on 04/18/08, but she didn't necessarily have to be ADMITTED to Mat-Su. She couldn't have been.

Too many people at Mat-Su would have either been 1) in on the hoax or 2) under the impression that, as weird as it was to admit Palin that late at night and release her that early in the morning without ever seeing her or attending to her, Sarah really was pregnant, and therefore really deserved the high level of privacy the Palins/CBJ would have had to request.

There would be no chart, no soiled linens, no placenta, no mess. Just a photo op, in the hall, with Sarah's parents. Patient care in normal circumstances would easily have been thrown out the window, if CBJ was there saying "nobody enters this room without my permission", or if Todd the enforcer was saying the same.
Nurses would comply, even if they thought they were going against their professional judgment. This is the Governor, she's supposedly pregnant (at that point I don't think anyone knew it was to be a high-risk baby), and CBJ had pull at Mat-Su at the time.

So we can believe that a lot of Mat-Su nurses were aware that something was fishy, and still keep quiet to this day, only IF Sarah was admitted. Because IF she was admitted, nothing medical happened. If the birth didn't take place there, then there are no stories to tell, other than, "yeah, I was here, and things were weird - we weren't even allowed to see her!"
As far as I know, there is no proof that Trig was born at Mat-Su, and there is no photographic proof that Sarah was even at the hospital that night or morning. All we have is a photo of the Heaths with a baby that can be conclusively dated to 04/18/08, a Levi photo of a baby at Mat-Su with an unsure or fudged date, and Sarah's word and the word of other demonstrated truth-benders.
Yeesh.

OTOH, we could believe that ONE nurse may have attended to a home birth and subsequent homecare, and kept subsequently quiet. Someone trained to do homecare. A NICU nurse, perhaps.
Which eliminates any responsibility of Mat-Su, and its many staff, from disclosing anything, ever.

I think this makes more sense, especially after three years. Many healthcare staff choosing not to sing, versus one healthcare professional who can't sing, because her voice was silenced.
When I imagine how this hoax took place, I keep thinking a home birth ties up many loose ends. Easier to silence one person than many.

Maybe the reason hospital staff are quiet is because Palin was never there at all. If she was there, we know she was there only to stop by long enough to fake a scenario for some family or personal staff. She wasn't in labour, she wasn't pregnant with a special needs baby, and she didn't need a chart, or a nurse to expel afterbirth.

We still don't know for a fact that Trig was born at Mat-Su to anyone on April 18, 2008. All we know is he wasn't born to Sarah. If Trig was high-risk and really had jaundice, a hole in his heart, etc., we know he wasn't born at Mat-Su at all, no matter when or to whom. Mat-Su weren't equipped for the delivery of such a baby.
Mat-Su is a huge red herring, IMO. Once CBJ relenquished her priveleges there, and the CEO resigned, Mat-Su was off the hook. They have nothing to admit, because they did not deliver a high-risk special needs baby to the Governor. No malpractice, no wrongdoing. They provided a bed for a photo op. That's all.

Viola-Alex

10/12/2011 01:56:33 am

@rubbernecking. we disagree.

I followed the Palin story avidly from August 31st. Sherry appeared suddenly, and was giving interviews to English tabloids. Complete with dolled-up photos. I believe that's what caused her arrest. She dared to step out and grab some limelight for herself. (Which doesn't mean she wasn't dealing. I can't say to that.)

There is a suspicious death by fire in Wasilla with a sealed case file and where the victim was a nurse with neonatal experience. I call that a glaring coincidence.

And that's not to mention the trail of violent events hanging like medals from Sarah Palin's chest. Her sister-in-law thief, her church's fire, her BIL's firing and discrediting, her former boyfriend's unusual death, not to mention her hometown's Meth, prostitution, alchol and teen birth problems!

Was it Jesus or somebody else in the NT who said By Your Life Ye Shall Be Judged.

Joie Vouet link

10/12/2011 01:56:54 am

rubbernecking wrote, "What possible moral reason does Palin have for keeping Trig's birth certificate private--particularly at the expense of her teen daughter's privacy and reputation? How do you explain this?"

She doesn't need a reason, moral or otherwise. You might as well ask why the state of Alaska doesn't make birth certificates public for 99 years. She is under no obligation to show the birth certificate. If anyone has any "moral" obligation it's those claiming she faked the pregnancy. They have made the claim and it's up to them to prove their claim. That it's difficult to prove isn't a reason to attempt to fob the burden off onto someone else.

If her daughter feels that her privacy has been invaded and/or reputation damaged, it's up to her to do something about it. I don't believe that she's ever claimed either of those has happened.

AvidReader

10/12/2011 02:14:25 am

@SLQ
maybe you should have read my entire post.

The important part is that SB29 protects the medical personnel from prosecution when they accept an infant.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 02:27:55 am

@Joie Vouet, you avoided my question. I asked if you had an unusual pregnancy that created suspicion about your teenage daughter, what would you do? If your preference for privacy intruded on the privacy of your daughter, would you have a moral obligation to make a correction?

Here's an email where Palin tells her staff that Bristol has called "again" about the rumors and asking for help stopping the rumors.
http://www.crivellawest.net/palinAll/pdf/13247.pdf

Frank Bailey's book shared emails Palin sent to her staff on 4/1 and 4/2 telling them about "funny" rumors that Bristol was pregnant.

Again, Palin chose to keep her pregnancy hidden and secret for 7 months. Once Palin became aware that her own actions had a negative impact on her daughter's reputation, didn't she have a moral obligation to make a correction?

Are you saying you would have made the same decisions as Palin if your daughter called you asking for help stopping the rumors?

mxm

10/12/2011 02:36:43 am

Often we have seen and/or suspected that they get close to truth but not quite all the way there. Questions, here is one from Levi's rendition of truth:

Levi reported that the Palins hired a retired special education teacher to help care for Trig once he was home.

Does a retired special ed teacher = a nurse with extensive neonatal experience?

Anon 432 has admitted that Dar Miller was contacted by the Palins to help care for the infant although she does not know if the arrangement was ever made. She told us that she has agonized over the question.

Is Levi telling us that Dar was in the mix?

Exp:Nov.05/08

10/12/2011 02:44:56 am

There's no proof that Bristol had a problem with the rumours. Only Sarah's word that the rumours existed and that Bristol was bothered by them.

The Bristol rumours sure seem to have helped Sarah perpetrate this hoax. As long as anyone in the know thought Palin faked the pregnancy to protect Bristol, silence would be immediately granted. Palin wouldn't even have to be asked. People don't pry when it's implied that something is none of their business.

Also, Palin didn't have to keep her own pregnancy secret for seven months. She wasn't pregnant. She only had to keep the secret that she wasn't really pregnant for about 5-6 weeks.

And, people with no morals have very little moral obligation.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 03:02:16 am

@Viola-Alex, can you provide some links to Sherry's pre-arrest interviews? I'd like to compare her pre-arrest and post-arrest comments about the Palins.

There were people in AK who believed that Sherry should have been arrested before the election because the police had evidence of her drug dealing in early September 2008. Some believe that AK State troopers did not want to damage McCain's chances in the election and this delayed Sherry's arrest.

http://www.themudflats.net/2008/12/26/coffee-talk-with-sherry-johnston/

I find it hard to believe that Sherry was arrested because she "dared to step out and grab some limelight for herself." Her arrest generated much more publicity and notoriety than her UK interviews. Her arrest reinforced the worst stereotypes about Alaskans and under-educated red-staters.

I think the Palins used Tripp to punish Levi because his mother's arrest was very ugly PR. If the Palins had real power, they would have quashed the arrest and threatened Sherry in private.

comeonpeople

10/12/2011 03:05:32 am

And, people with no morals have very little moral obligation.
Isn't that the truth Exp:Nov05/08!

The fact that Palin keeps raking in 100K at a time retelling her fake birth tale (in variations on a theme I might add) clearly demonstrates she has no morals. When she takes money from special needs groups it is particularly disgusting.
Disgusting.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 03:19:15 am

@Exp:Nov.05/08, what proof do you need that Bristol was bothered by these rumors?

Here's what Bristol says in her book, "Some people actually suggested that Trig wasn't our brother. They even insulted us by suggesting he was Willow's baby. Or mine! It was so stupid, I couldn't believe we had to respond it. But there we were, at the GOP convention, fighting off some of the weirdest and most malicious accusations."

We have emails where Palin told her staff that Bristol was bothered by the rumors.

http://www.crivellawest.net/palinAll/pdf/13983.pdf
http://www.crivellawest.net/palinAll/pdf/14098.pdf
http://www.crivellawest.net/palinAll/pdf/13247.pdf

Frank Bailey said Bristol was bothered by the rumors. He shared emails Palin sent to her staff on 4/1 and 4/2. Bailey acknowledged that Palin refused to release medical records even though she knew the controversy existed.

Levi said Bristol called her mother and cried about the rumors; he said Palin's response was, "Too bad." Levi said he asked Palin about releasing a birth certificate and it made her very angry.

Joie Vouet link

10/12/2011 03:26:46 am

rubbernecking 09:27:55, I didn't write about what I would do, because what I would do is irrelevant. It would be a response to a hypothetical question. This is about Sarah Palin. I believe that I addressed your concerns about "moral responsibility" and Bristol's reputation/privacy.

If anyone is about to accuse me of trollery, I might as well go all in. At the link (my name), I wrote about my first impressions of Joe McGinniss' book. It was not intended to do so, but it is a subtle (actually, kind) take down of the pictures people have been showing to "prove" that Palin wasn't pregnant.

jeff

10/12/2011 03:28:24 am

For those of us (like me) who get impatient waiting for the Babygate scandal to finally break, it is interesting to look back to see how long many of these same questions have been asked. This article by Kyle Hopkins at Anchorage Daily News from Aug 31, 2008 is pretty short, so I'll reproduce it in full here.
________________________________________

http://community.adn.com/adn/node/130178

Rumor patrol -- Baby drama

Posted by Alaska Politics

Anchorage Daily News

Posted: August 31, 2008 - 9:15 pm

From Kyle Hopkins in Anchorage --

OK - the Palin baby speculation is inescapable at this point. The left-leaning Daily Kos posted an item Friday called "Palin's faked "pregnancy"? Covering for teen daughter?"

It's a version of a rumor - long simmering in Alaska -- that Palin's daughter Bristol was pregnant and the governor somehow covered it up by pretending to have the baby (Trig) herself.

Then the also-left leaning Huffington Post slammed all the speculators saying that Democrats have plenty to target Palin on without the baby drama. "Guys, its a loser. Can we not do this?" writes Bart Motes. And then there's this from the Atlantic Web site , pursuing the questions.

So, time for some rumor patrol. It'd be nice to put this to bed.

The answer here should be pretty simple. It happened or it didn't. For months, we have been getting anonymous people telling us they "know" it's true, or people we do know telling us they've heard it fifth-hand. We haven't seen anything resembling proof. We asked the governor's office, and the governor, multiple times about it.

Here's a story we wrote soon after the birth. At that point, the questions were all about whether Palin should have flown back to Alaska to give birth. In the story, Palin's doctor talks about the labor and addresses questions raised at the time about Palin's decision to board a jet and fly to Alaska from Texas when she showed signs of early labor.

"The stage of her pregnancy was not apparent by observation," said an Alaska Airlines spokeswoman. The doctor, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, said she induced labor once Palin was at the hospital.

What's the McCain campaign say? Nothing so far. I've called and e-mailed for an on-the-record response, but haven't heard back.

What's Palin's in-state spokesman, Bill McAllister say?

That it's not true. "The answer to that is no," he said.

"But beyond that, I don't know, why should we even have to say anything," he said.

McAllister was an Anchorage TV reporter before working for Palin. He said Palin once approached him - before people knew she was pregnant - assuming he'd been hearing rumors.

"She said it's not true about Bristol," McAllister said.

At the time, the rumor would have been that Palin's daughter was pregnant.

How does McAllister know it's not true?

"The governor's not a liar. That's the main reason. But also this would have to involve some sort of conspiracy with the hospital of Wasilla. They said she gave birth there. Is the doctor, the nurses ... are they all lying?" he said.

Why not share the birth certificate?

"What a thing to request -- prove that this is your baby," McAllister said. "I mean, my god, that's horrifying to think that she would have to do that."

I said one reason is to put it to rest.

"In my mind, there's nothing to put to rest," he said.

No, Alaska birth certificates are not public record. Meantime, this is all a plotline straight out of a recent season of Desperate Housewives.

_______________________________________

I guess my question to Bill McAllister would be

"Which particular doctors and nurses have said ANYTHING for which they could be accused of lying?"

Just askin', Bill.

colacarat

10/12/2011 03:29:39 am

Ottoline,

Thank you for putting those pictures of Levi together. Would it be possible to add the Levi/Keith/baby picture to the collage?

In picture #5, it appears that the baby may have a patch of brownish-colored pigment above the left ear; it doesn't look like hair to me, anyway.

Picture #6 has always stumped me.

lilly lily

10/12/2011 03:32:16 am

When did Dar die?

If she actually was approached to care for an infant prior to April 18 2008?

They didn't need her after April 18th because Sarah was lugging him around everywhere with Bristol and Piper.

Rationalist

10/12/2011 03:34:43 am

I really agree, Exp:Nov.05/08. I do not think Palin was ever admitted to Mat-Su.

I'm going far afield for an allusion here, but I assume a few of you guys have seen the movie "The Right Stuff."

There's a scene towards the end where a brand new F-16 arrives at Edwards Air Force base and Chuck Yeager, played by Sam Shepard (and, by the way, V-A, I'm way jealous of you), says to his assistant that he'd like to give the plane a try.

Cut to two airmen in the control tower as he takes off. One says to the other: "Do you have the flight plan? He has clearance, right?" And the other one says, "It's Yeager. He must have clearance."

I think this is like that. Everyone assumed someone else had approved or authorized. Read the link in my post to Palin Peyton Place about how CBJ could have said there was a private nurse and there would be no paperwork generated.

I don't think Palin was ever there. I think Todd came out with a baby and told Chuck and Sallie Sarah was sleeping. Chuck and Sallie were interviewed by KTUU.

So, is there any evidence in the emails or calendar to support Palin's assertion that she "signed legislation" while at the hospital?

I believe Frank Bailey said he saw her in the hospital. Is that right?

Levi says he saw her there with an IV, but the photograph he's talking about is the one being heavily disputed at IM - the one where he looks a year younger and is wearing a wedding ring.

Anyway, I've long said that if I were in Alaska, the person I'd most want to talk to is the janitor on duty the night of the 17th/ morning of the 18th.

lilly lily

10/12/2011 03:41:15 am

O.K. The nurse was a neo-natal nurse who got tired of watching babies die? Then switched to hospice care, and watched old people die.

She died in a fire in January of 2009.

Swept under the rug.

After the election, about the time of the church fire which started in the files for adoptions and other fundi matters? Accelerant used in that room. Unsolved.

jeff

10/12/2011 03:47:23 am

Here's another old article from Aug 29, 2008 which includes some great links:

http://commentsfromleftfield.com/2008/08/who-is-the-mother-of-trig-paxon-van-palin

Be sure and read the comments---particularly one from Mike which he posted on Sept 11, 2008 at 10:29 a.m. He has a couple of interesting links in his comment.

Conscious at last!

10/12/2011 03:50:03 am

"Conspiracy" has become a term of derision:

Today is October 12th, or what I call "the real" Colombus day-- it was the day celebrated in the U.S. for decades before we went to the 3 day weekend rule.
Anyhow- I think most of us here will agree that Colombus did not "discover" America.
Before he(or any other European) arrived here, there were people, flora and fauna doing just fine- thank-you. The science that supported Colombus' eventual voyage was disputed. After all, whether or not the repressive apparatus of the Church allowed for the discussion that the earth may be round-- IT WAS STILL ROUND.

Guess what else-- before the microscope was perfected, plants and animals still were made up of cells, bacteria still existed. Just because folks in the 15th century couldn't SEE the cells,didn't mean that they weren't there - right??

OK, so now let's get to our favorite topic - SP. We know that she faked a pregnancy. ArcXIX(=Galileo) gave us the details in August'08(along with many others that followed).
But early on, this "silly idea" was called a conspiracy theory(=heresy).
Anyone who believed such a thing was wearing a tin foil hat- right?

So how long do we empower the MSM to be the arbiter of what is true? I DO NOT CARE WHAT THE MSM SAYS ABOUT THIS. I KNOW THAT SP FAKED A PREGNANCY. It will not be any more true if or when the MSM declares it to be so.

The next step in evolving consciousness is empowering ourselves to be the "decision maker."

People use the term conspiracy to make an idea seem silly, to discredit it and to make the individual suggesting it appear foolish. It is a manipulative weapon. I think we should disable this weapon and put it to rest.

LakeLucilleLoon

10/12/2011 03:56:30 am

I've always thought that Palin gave birth to Trig very premature and he was in NICU in Seattle. Children's Hospital of Seattle is the closest Pediatric Cardiac Surgeon, which Trig would have needed if indeed the hole in his heart required surgery.

When the family were told that he would live Palin announced her pregnancy. While Sarah and Todd were in Dallas, Chuck Heath dropped the "Wild Ride" story into the newstream and Sarah just ran with it, using it to further enforce the myth of the "strong frontier woman".

There was no sign of pregnancy on the Dallas trip because Sarah was not pregnant at the time, having given birth months prior. There was no state security detail because Trig and a nanny/nurse would be on the same return flight from Seattle and the less eyes the better. They sat separately so as not to be seen traveling together. He was driven to Mat Su Regional so that Sarah could "give birth".

Hence the robust Trig we see with the Heaths in the suite at Mat Su Regional. This also explains why Palin was able to return to work so soon with Trig in tow.

Who that sickly infant is in the Palin kitchen with Levi and Mercede is anyone's guess, but it sure isn't the Trig that posed with the Heath's at the "birth".

I only believe this scenario because Palin is too stupid to pull of a complicated hoax.

She has everyone toeing the party line and all stories lined up with her thru threats or money. Hell, if Levi saw Sarah in a delivery room and the baby was there as well, he'd think she gave birth, same with her kids.

I don't think the hoax revolves around Sarah Palin's pregnancy but revolves around who that sickly little child is in the Palin kitchen during Levi's birthday party. Where'd that one come from?

Just my two cents, either this adds to the discussion or not, but I just thought I'd share.

jeff

10/12/2011 03:56:38 am

@lily lily

re: Darlene Miller

http://www.adn.com/2009/01/13/653001/death-of-hospice-nurse-shocks.html

http://sarahpalintruthsquad.wordpress.com/category/wasilla-alaska/

Exp:Nov.05/08

10/12/2011 04:02:09 am

@ Rubbernecking
"...suggesting he was Willow's baby. Or mine!"
Bristol gives a bit away by naming Willow first and herself as an aside.

Bristol wrote that in her book because she had to acknowledge that she knew the rumours about Trig being hers existed during the RNC. Who didn't? Interestingly, though, Bristol only mentions that they defended those rumours at the time of the GOP convention. She doesn't say anything about the spring of that year, or that they'd been battling these rumours for months.

I don't buy that Bristol was bothered by the rumours. She may not have even been aware of them. Palin told her staff Bristol was bothered, Frank Bailey said Bristol was bothered. All of that is hearsay.
At the time, it was Sarah saying "please stop these awful rumours about Bristol" when she herself was claiming she was pregnant, but wasn't.

Sarah needed those rumours in the spring. They explained the strangeness of Sarah not showing at all or acting pregnant, and explained that she was probably covering for Bristol. And that nobody should say a word about any of it, other than to do what Sarah asks, when she asks.

Allison link

10/12/2011 04:11:30 am

Exp:Nov.05/08

For what it's worth, not just Sarah, but Levi also too says Bristol had a problem with the rumors. It's in his book.

lilly lily

10/12/2011 04:16:51 am

I am still taken with Gary Wheeler's description of Sarah Palin and her behavior.

"she's no mama grizzly. She's a rabid wolf. Take a look at the snow wherever she's been, there's a trail of blood in her wake."

Very poetic description. Now I wonder why such a vivid description. Being a mean girl with a mean mouth doesn't rise to that level.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 04:22:16 am

The "conspiracy" tag is sometimes deserved. Some of the most deeply held beliefs here are based on comments from anonymous people no one can verify or confirm.

We have zero evidence that adoption records were stored in the Wasilla church. We have zero evidence that this fire was not investigated properly. There is also no motive or logic for using arson to destroy records in your own possession or in the possession of a close ally. And burning church records does not hide/destroy information in government records.

We have zero evidence that the hospice nurse has any connection to this. No friend or family member of the nurse has ever asked for any public help in investigating this death. This "tip" also came from an anonymous commenter with no proven reliability.

We also have no evidence that AK fire investigation records are available to random curiousity-seekers. In my state, you must have a valid interest to receive a fire investigation report; you must be the property owner, or insurance agent, or lawyer, etc.

jeff

10/12/2011 04:23:13 am

@Exp:Nov.05/08

I am inclined to agree with you. Sarah seemed to be the only one "talking up" the rumors. From the article in a comment I posted earlier (10:28 am):

[...]
McAllister was an Anchorage TV reporter before working for Palin. He said Palin once approached him - before people knew she was pregnant - assuming he'd been hearing rumors.

"She said it's not true about Bristol," McAllister said.

At the time, the rumor would have been that Palin's daughter was pregnant.
[...]
________________________________________

Telling a news person that the rumor that they have yet to hear is false is a clever way of establishing the fact that there IS a rumor but still attempting to discredit the rumor. Perhaps McAllister wasn't all that enthusiastic about believing her story so she offered him a job to help him believe her version.
________________________________________

comeonpeople

10/12/2011 04:27:20 am

@Rationalist:
The Right Stuff is one of my all time fave movies, as well as the book by Tom Wolfe. I've read it so many times I'd be embarassessed to reveal it! This is a case of the movie being every bit as good as the book.
Anyway, I get your point. Only Yeager in that era could say "Yeah, I'm just gonna wring her out alittle bit" and get away with it. (Although that's not how it went down in reality: He was testing the aircraft and the misfortune happened bacause the atmopheric conditions in the afternoon were diferent than those in his previous test in the am. It was all scheduled. Poetic license in the movie!)
Anyway, yes, with all the fundies on the board and a high profile client in a podunk hospital created again, the perfect storm. This could only have happened at Matsu which is Precisely why MatSu and CBJ were involved.
In my mind, this doesn't mean they should not be held accountable at many levels.

Anonfornow

10/12/2011 04:37:54 am

LakeLucilleLoon, When I read your suggestion, at first I thought, Now that's an interesting idea--that the Palins picked up the baby from a hospital in Seattle (although I'd have said its birth mother was Bristol).

But then I remembered that guy who wrote an email talking about how he saw Sarah and Todd waiting at the airport in Seattle; she was calmly reading a book while she was supposedly "in labor." If they'd had a baby with them, he'd have surely mentioned it. I suppose it's possible they had a nurse along with the baby, but I find that doubtful since 1) Sarah is cheap; 2) if the nurse was bringing the baby, the Palins didn't need to be there, and 3) such a nurse would simply be another mouth to talk.

Plus I think it would have been too risky--so many people could have seen them with the baby on the flight and in the two airports.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 04:54:25 am

@Exp:Nov.05/08, you say you "don't buy" that Bristol was bothered by the rumors. You suspect Bristol was not aware of them.

I have no idea why it would be surprising that Bristol would be aware of these rumors or bothered by these rumors. Yes, my evidence is mostly hearsay. But you did not tell us about your evidence. Are you sitting on some video recordings of Bristol laughing about the pregnancy rumors?

I think Palin's emails, Bailey's recollections, and Levi's recollections are reasonable evidence that Bristol was unhappy about the rumors.

Viola-Alex

10/12/2011 05:09:03 am

Here you go, rubbernecking.

Here's an AP story and photo

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_10367333?source=pkg

It took forever to find this. Just google: Sherry Johnston Al Grillo AP photo and you'll see what I mean.

Look at Sherry dolled up. This chick stepped out and got whammed. This is an AP story! But I think the original one was in the UK.

Viola-Alex

10/12/2011 05:12:08 am

Poor Sherry. This AP photo by Al Grillo became the one everybody used when she was arrested.

There is no doubt in my mind, she took one step too far, and they shut her down. Not the McCain campaign, but the Palins.

jeff

10/12/2011 05:21:29 am

@rubbernecking

You said:
“The "conspiracy" tag is sometimes deserved. Some of the most deeply held beliefs here are based on comments from anonymous people no one can verify or confirm.”

Forgive me for butting in, but I would say unequivocally that none of the items that you mentioned thereafter are among the most widely-held “beliefs” held by readers on this blog. Just because someone mentions possibilities or their own “gut feeling” surrounding the concurrent events possibly being related does not mean that there is a consensus on the matter. Nor does it mean that those particular issues are their “most deeply held beliefs” regarding Babygate.

In fact, I’d venture to say that the most widely-held belief here is that Sarah Palin did not give birth to Trig. Period. And by definition, yes, the hoax that has been labeled Babygate is indeed a conspiracy theory. But being labeled a conspiracy theory does not diminish its validity, whatsoever. It just means that it has yet to be proven by documented confessions by all parties to the hoax, and that, as of this time, we do not know the total scope of the hoax.

I’d agree that discussing many of the possible second- and third-tier details that are conditional in nature might not be all that fruitful in solving the hoax, but many of the anomalies have surfaced and been identified in exactly these types of open discussions. And when new information is slow to surface, it can be helpful to go back and massage the “known knowns” to try to develop further possible motives for carrying out each step in the hoax.

Unfortunately, the probabilities related to each of these occurrences are unknown and our opinions will vary on what is and is not most plausible.

Tom link

10/12/2011 05:31:12 am

@Viola

"Coffee = OxyContin?

Ring a bell?

Oxy is also a street drug gotten and then sold through irresponsible prescriptions (see Florida where it's rampant).

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 05:33:00 am

@LakeLucilleLoon, you said "I've always thought that Palin gave birth to Trig very premature and he was in NICU in Seattle."

This is an interesting idea. According to Bailey's book, Palin announced her surprise pregnancy on 3/3 by sending an email while stuck in Seattle on a flight delay. On 3/4 she sent them another email that she was "delayed again" and had missed the connecting flight.

http://www.crivellawest.net/palin2011/pdf/12634.pdf

Palin was in Alaska on 3/1/2008 for the Iditarod. Why was she even in Seattle on 3/3?

FrostyAK

10/12/2011 05:39:14 am

@rubbernecking 10:19:15

Why are you referencing what the people involved in keeping the the pregnancy hoax under wraps said in their books? It was LIES, spread by the Wasilla hoaxer herself. It seems she was the one spreading the rumor Bristle was pregnant, and then denying it in the same breath.

@ Loon - Why have any hoax at all if $P actually gave birth to TriG wherever/whenever? Even better RTL credentials to have a such a sickly infant, and do everything to keep him alive... I agree $P is $tupid with a capital $. But the scenario you paint would have taken much more stealth than what we are pretty sure did happen.

Conspiracies have been around as long as man has walked the earth. They are a fact of life. It is those who subscribe to conspiracy theories (so called tinfoil hat wearers) that are denigrated by the sheeple. A large number of those conspiracies that were scoffed at turn out to be true when the information has been hushed up long enough (50 years) - so that most who cared are dead or at least drooling in their oatmeal.

Laura Novak

10/12/2011 05:39:46 am

Something to note about Weebly: it throws random emails into approval. So, it's nothing personal and I approve them as soon as I am able. Unless they are not fit for public consumption.

Weebly even tosses my own into moderation sometimes. I have no idea why. But anyway, just so you know.

Thanks!

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 05:44:45 am

@Viola-Alex, there was intense press interest in the Johnstons once Levi was identified as the father of Bristol's baby and an attendee of the RNC. The press went looking for the Johnston family in AK.

It's hard to see what was objectionable in her remarks:

Levi Johnston's mother said her 18-year-old son left Alaska on Tuesday morning to join the Palin family at the convention. The boy's mother, Sherry Johnston, said that there had been no pressure put on her son to marry 17-year-old Bristol Palin and that the two teens had made plans to wed before it was known she was pregnant. "This is just a bonus," Johnston said.

I think Sherry's problems were just another example of how poorly Palin was vetted. The McCain campaign didn't vet the Johnstons because they didn't know Bristol was pregnant when they selected Palin.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 05:59:56 am

@FrostyAK,you ask "Why are you referencing what the people involved in keeping the the pregnancy hoax under wraps said in their books?"

Over and over again, we ask why no one steps forward and tell us what they know. Bailey and Johnston both had close access to Palin. Both suffered as a result of the relationship. Is it possible that they share information that is false, misleading, or mistaken? Of course.

Both men probably know more than they reveal in their books. But that is no reason to ignore what they do reveal.

In Bailey's case, he was very careful to use Palin's own emails about sensitive topics. He shared these emails with his co-authors. He quotes these emails verbatim. I think it's a huge mistake to overlook the emails he quotes in his book.

If Bailey were providing this information as an anonymous commenter on IM, we'd be delighted. But when he puts it in a book under his own name, we deride the information. This makes no sense to me.

Viola-Alex

10/12/2011 06:07:05 am

@rubbernecking - you miss the point. Even something like "the two teens had made plans to wed before it was known she was pregnant. 'This is just a bonus. . .'" means that Sherry was out there making a non-Palin approved statement. AND it would have swept the world media, as it did, like wildfire.

I'm sure Sherry was warned and shut up. The drug bust was the capper.

lilly lily

10/12/2011 06:09:08 am

So no records were stored and burned up in the Wasilla Church offices?+++++

We will have to wait and see what me again says about Dar Miller.

I appreciate the details being rectified, as one accumulates so much that can be unverifyable in reading these blogs over a three year period.

Is rubbernecking a lawyer by chance?

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 06:23:16 am

@Viola-Alex, so Sherry tells the world that her son loves Bristol, that her son always intended to marry Bristol, and that their baby is a bonus. Wasn't this about the nicest thing Sherry could have said under the circumstances? Other AK residents were quoted about the pregnancy. It doesn't appear that anyone else was arrested for commenting about Bristol's pregnancy.

Meanwhile, Ann Kilkenny and Lyda Green were telling the press about Palin's failures as an actual leader. They somehow managed to avoid arrest.

JuicyGalore

10/12/2011 06:32:31 am

rubbernecking, I don't know when the iditarod in 08 was, but Sarah was in LA on the 2nd and 3rd of March . Todd, WIllow and Piper flew to Juneau on the 1st.

The idtarod in 09 was March 1st. Was it the same for 08?

JuicyGalore

10/12/2011 06:37:54 am

Everyone seems to ignore the fact that Bristol and Levi did break up at some point when she moved to Juneau. How THAT progresses to marriage is anyone's guess. Considering they didn't seriously date until fall 07, I'd say that's all bogus.

Levi has NOW said that the first engagement wasn't authentic. He forgets though, that their 2nd engagement lasted like 2 mos. I"m still trying to figure out when they saw each other. They did indeed break up around July 14th when the article broke.

They were never going to last. Anyone in a stable relationship can tell that. A baby complicates even the most stable relationship. A baby would devastate an unstable one.

They are a "hollywood couple." For appearances only. Considering some of the other interviews Sherry gave, I think she was just trying to make her family appear together and wholesome. (esp when Keith had already left in the spring 08)

Anyone would do that.

Dangerous

10/12/2011 06:40:49 am

As a long-time contributor to the investigation, I’m glad Rationalist got to do a post to Laura audience.

There are two critical factors in the analysis, one which has produced quite a few comments, and the other which hasn’t.

First, could SP actually freelance the faked pregnancy and expect everyone who knew about it to fall in line? Whether she did or not, she would have had to consider the motives and likely actions of everyone with knowledge of her actual condition when she announced it. Otherwise, she could not have had a realistic expectation that her ruse would last even a day, much less after donning costumes, faking a delivery, and presenting an infant to the world.

So if she freelanced and Dr. CBJ and Todd just went along, and they did not have a motive in common (such as protecting a Palin daughter) the odds of success go down to almost zero. On the other hand, if Dr. CBJ and the Palin were covering for one of the girls, then the likelihood of keeping it a secret goes way up. But you also have to add the daughter into the mix. But that’s probably likely as well since keeping the infant is the critical choice, rather than just quietly putting it up for adoption.

To sum up this section:

Close to zero chance of success for SP freelancing the faked pregnancy with anyone other than a Palin girl (since the motives for all involved, particularly Dr. CBJ don’t align).

I’d say about even money for success if SP freelances the faked pregnancy to protect a Palin girl (since the motives to maintain the secret align, provided the daughter agrees).

Decent chance of success if everyone agrees to the plan before SP announces and it’s to protect a Palin girl (and the family).

The second issue is one that I think many people are getting wrong because they are conflating separate phases of the ongoing ruse. In order for any faked pregnancy to work, the ruse must be maintained forever. Further, the participants need to have confidence that at the time they decide to launch the ruse. So everyone involved has to be highly motivated to keep it quiet.

But that is different from the situation once she became a national figure with all of our prying eyes revisiting the original deception. Now they have additional motive to maintain the ruse at all costs, since they now have much more to lose. I suspect they thought they got away with it when just locals were paying attention. Yet, they can’t go back in time and preemptively cut those with knowledge out of the loop. Their best bet is to muddy the waters.

I dare say that, in reading what’s on IM, they have succeeded. Trig is the issue, not Tripp. For sake of argument we can concede the official timeline for Tripp’s birth, no matter what hearsay evidence Gryphen shares that might indicate otherwise. We can’t dismiss Ruffles so easily, and that seems to be a key element that everyone back in Alaska in mid 2008 missed. From where I sit, presenting two infants as Trig is “case closed” for her faking the pregnancy.

If Bristol happens to be Trig’s real mother (or Ruffles’), there is definitely a story there and Levi and the Johnstons must know something that they are motivated to keep quiet. If she’s not, then Bristol must be highly motivated NOT to share the truth with Levi or if she did he’s highly motivated not to share it with his family or the public, despite the obvious incentives.

We should start again by admitting that we don’t really know what happened and can only piece together bits and pieces from the fossil record in 2008.

Alaskansforjustice

10/12/2011 06:44:32 am

I too think Bristol was unhappy about the Trig rumors and THAT was possibly the reason she wanted a baby, to prove people wrong.

BUT- we DO have a happy looking Bristol sitting in the Anchorage Governor's office (thx Bailey) supposedly in May 08.

Any picture we see of her she looks elated. And ANY evidence we hear about Levi (which is scarce. Was he a hermit? Why are there no myspace rumblings or pictures of Levi EVER)
The only insight into Levi at that time was Sadie's myspace, when she wrote that he was "still angry and goes hunting every night", written early May 4th.

The reason I don't buy Bristol and Levi's happy happy relationship: Why would Levi and Johnny be at odds into the summer of 08 if that whole dealio happened way in the past?

There's a reason NO ONE references Johnny chandler. Some things are obviously better left in the past.

Yukon Gold

10/12/2011 06:51:09 am

Sarah was NOT the one playing up the rumors around the capitol, which is the only place they were abundant. All Frank Murkowski's lackeys (lyda and team) had been constantly looking for ways to get at Sarah her whole term. They would even make her feel guilty about things like attending her son's army graduation and family decisions.

There is justified reason for Sarah to be on the defensive and push back. She's just continued to do this way past its due date. haha sorry had to pun there.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 06:51:56 am

@JuicyGalore, it doesn't matter if Sherry was truthful about Levi and Bristol's marriage plans.

When Sherry knew the press was calling on her, she got her hair blow-dried and said something nice and bland. @Viola-Alex suggests this behavior got her arrested. I disagree.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 07:14:02 am

According to this email from Ivy Frye on 4/6, people were discussing Bristol pregnancy rumors in Wasilla's churches and restaurants in early April.

http://www.crivellawest.net/palinAll/pdf/14098.pdf

According to Ivy Frye's email, people approached both Chuck Sr and Molly, Don [Young ?] and Diana Straub.

Bailey's book quotes another email about Todd having to speak to school teachers who were discussing the rumors in public. These rumors were not limited to Juneau.

Tom link

10/12/2011 07:15:20 am

If coffee=oxycontin for Sherry Johnston and the undercover cops, does 'coffee'=oxycontin when SP and staff used the word in emails?

I realize that this is OT but there's been tons of speculation about SP's drug use. Oxy can be bought on the street. Enough, as in the prescription allowance, is never enough for an addict.

Maybe SP needed lots of 'coffee'.

Joie Vouet

10/12/2011 07:17:33 am

If it's any consolation, Bristol still has feelings for Levi. She shot his book. That's love and devotion in some quarters.

Phyllis

10/12/2011 07:38:05 am

@Rationalist

You asked So, is there any evidence in the emails or calendar to support Palin's assertion that she "signed legislation" while at the hospital?

There is a entry on Sarah's calendar for April 18 at 5:00pm that says she signed a bill that day. But ,and this is a very big but , she sent a email to Kris Perry and Janice Mason on Aug. 2, 2008
Where she told them to make sure that it was reflected on her schedule because she didn't see it when she checked.

10:33 AM 02 Aug 2008 [ View original ]
from: Gov. Sarah Palin
to: Janice L Mason
cc: Kris Perry
J- how is it reflected in my TAs the couple of days I was "off duty" when I had Trig?
April 18, the day he was born, I signed a bill into law and conducted a few State actions
while in the hospital (and that should be recorded for the record)... but are there a
couple of days in there that show I wasn't in the Anchorage office? I didn't see any...

5:37 PM 02 Aug 2008 [ View original ]
from: Gov. Sarah Palin
to: Janice L Mason
cc: Kris Perry
I looked back for the month of April to see how the TAs looked around Trig's birth and I
find nothing for a few weeks in there. I don't know how detailed the TAs and schedules
have been kept, but to not see anything in those weeks is concerning. Unless I'm missing
something, it looks like there are lots of chunks missing in the TA pile.

The thing is according to the Alaska Senate journal the bill was signed on the 19th and was to be efficative 90 days later on July 18th. They wouldn't have counted the day it was signed because that is called the day of enactment. So it would be counted the 20th of April till the 18th of July which was 90 days.
If she actually had signed it on the 18th the efficative date would have been the 17th.

25th Legislature(2007-2008)
Journal Text for SB149 in the 25th Legislature
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05-30-2008 Senate Journal 2975

SB 149
Message was received stating the Governor signed the following bill
on April 19 and transmitted the engrossed and enrolled copies to the
Lieutenant Governor's Office for permanent filing:

CS FOR SENATE BILL NO. 149(L&C) "An Act
relating to redistribution of used eyeglasses and to the
Board of Dispensing Opticians."

Chapter 19, SLA 2008
Effective Date: 7/18/08

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 07:40:35 am

@Joie Vouet, in other words, she shot a book cover with a picture of her son's father on it. That looks like anger, hostility, and immaturity in some quarters.

Dis Gusted

10/12/2011 07:44:16 am

Where the hell is the meth lab thing coming from?

a meth lab was in the house next door - Todd Palin renovated the house next door.

Bristol was rumored to be selling drugs via her phone which she subsequently and conveniently pass off to Sherry. Sherry got a call 'out of the blue' to buy drugs and sold her prescription drugs because she desperately needed $$. Her husband had just left her.

Alaska is expensive, but so is the Northeast where I live. In fact, AK is not as expensive as the Northeast because we don't get all the refunds AK does.

Offer someone $20K to keep their mouth shut is a year's salary. It'll work.

What would be interesting to know is if SP has any of her purported $12M left.

Dis Gusted

10/12/2011 07:46:52 am

There were a whole lot of babies born during those time periods that were never listed on the online nursery and that's where this bullsnot came from about how many babies CBJ delivered.

that is incorrect. CBJ had a site up that specifically stated she had only delivered 3 babies in 18 months. It was not a daily occurrence like real baby doctors (ob-gyns).

Brad Scharlott

10/12/2011 07:49:47 am

PR release from Mat-Su: New Chief Executive Officer, John R. Lee, Joins Mat-Su Regional Medical Center

Healthcare executive John R. Lee officially assumed the role of chief executive officer (CEO) at Mat-Su Regional Medical Center (MSRMC) on March 31 [2010].
-------
Who was CEO before him? Where did that person go?

Dis Gusted

10/12/2011 08:03:37 am

"The stage of her pregnancy was not apparent by observation," said an Alaska Airlines spokeswoman. The doctor, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, said she induced labor once Palin was at the hospital.

so SP didn't look pregnant on the wild ride.

A Palin was induced, could have been Diana, Bristol, or any Palin that was pregnant.

Someone mentioned that if a kid talked, mom could just claim the kid had a drug problem and put the kid away. That's exactly what Shawn Christy says happened to Willow. She was put into the Kline Institute in NY. Her weight gain this year was explained as a reaction to prescription drugs to keep her calm.

Shawn Christy, for those who don't know, sent threatening letters to President Obama and was encouraged to do so by none other than SP. (statements by Shawn Christy AND by a state trooper that had Palin duty).

Tom link

10/12/2011 08:07:35 am

Norman Stephens, former Matsu CEO, resigned as of 5/15/09.

http://www.adn.com/2009/05/08/789380/mat-su-hospital-ceo-resigns.html

Viola-Alex

10/12/2011 08:29:58 am

Norman Stevens, CEO
Portneuf Medical Center
777 Hospital Way
Pocatello Idaho 83201

(hmmmm. a hospital out of compliance with Medicare procedures. . .)

http://healthandwelfare.idaho.gov/Portals/0/Medical/LicensingCertification3/052411PortneufMedCtrR_C.pdf

Viola-Alex

10/12/2011 08:32:28 am

Norman Stevens bio

http://www.portmed.org/leadership/

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 08:44:11 am

@Joie Vouet, I overlooked your reply at 10:26:46 to my question about Palin's moral obligations to protect her daughter's privacy and reputation.

I was sincerely interested in what you would have done in Palin's situation. This aspect of Palin's behavior has long troubled me. I am interested in how those who believe Palin gave birth address this problem.

If you believe Palin gave birth, then you also know that Bristol cannot request a birth certificate. If Palin gave birth, Bristol can't prove it. Bristol is not entitled to her mother's medical records or her brother's birth certificate.

Palin made the choice to be a public figure, to hide a pregnancy, and then to seek publicity for an unusual labor and delivery story. Palin's choices as a public figure hurt the reputation of another person--a less powerful person, her teenage daughter.

Palin told her staff in multiple emails that these rumors bothered her daughter. If a friend or colleague sent you these emails, what advice would you give? Can you think of any reason to withhold a birth certificate when you've already revealed much more intimate physical details of your labor?

mary b

10/12/2011 09:14:40 am

Don't forget in the letter that CBJ supposedly wrote, all it said was that she delivered a baby boy with Trisonomy-G
at what ever date she gave. She never mentioned any name as to who the Mother of the baby was.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 09:28:54 am

@Dis Gusted, the Christys have been arrested and arraigned for stalking and harassment. They are not credible sources.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/documents/2011/08/fbi-father-and-son-left-vile-voicemails-for-sarah-palins-lawyer.php?page=1

Ennealogic link

10/12/2011 09:29:20 am

@Conscious at last! Wed, 12 Oct 2011 10:50:03

You have written what is in my own mind - thank you.

Regarding the main post, I have always thought it ridiculous when people said there were far too many people who would have had to know about the hoax that it could not be kept a secret.

Especially because we know that Sarah Palin _could not have been pregnant in 2008_, the number of people who had to know about the hoax is quite small.

There were no doctors or nurses or hospital staff members who treated her. There were no family friends or casual acquaintances or governor staff members who saw her pregnant or visiting doctors. So what could they have known? They may have suspected she was NOT pregnant, and in fact, many voiced exactly that sentiment to reporters after Sarah's announcement on March 5th, 2008.

There would have been no OB-GYN tending her, no ultra-sound or amniocentesis performed, no pre-natal visits, no baby showers, no shopping for baby clothes. How can those who knew nothing say anything? They can't.

That's the difficulty with our having to prove a negative. Let's say I claim I have a Master's degree from XYZ University. Let's also say that such degrees are not part of the public record and I've already made it clear I have no intention of satisfying the prurient urges of those tin-foil-hat-wearers by posting a copy of my diploma.

So where are the fellow students who knew me, who knew I was studying and taking tests? Where are the teachers (who can't talk about students due to some law like HIPAA) who will step forward and validate my story? They don't exist, so they can't validate my assertion. By the same token, they can't repudiate it either. They know nothing.

This story and this hoax grows increasingly more believable particularly because there is virtually no corroborating evidence to prove that what Sarah Palin asserts to be true is actually true. No witnesses. No documentation. No extemporaneous accounts, no anecdotal evidence - unless you want to count Levi and Frank Bailey - and their truthiness is surely suspect.

At some point, now that Sarah has been warned off running for president (my firm belief for why she quit), her 'hotness' will drop rapidly (at least I hope so) and the big story that never broke about her hoax may well not break anytime soon. But it will always be there, hanging over her head. And one day, someone who knows and has the proof to back up their knowing will spill the beans. And then I can die in peace knowing I haven't been crazy all these years. :)

Clue Digger

10/12/2011 09:38:24 am

O/T but insightful ... and also fairly nauseating.

One of Sarah Palin's many vile legacies is expanding the acceptance of a politician using his/her appearance -- aka being "hot" -- as a campaign tool.

Case in point, the Twitter feed of "Huntsman Daughters" :

http://twitter.com/#!/Jon2012girls

(Though I fixed my typo of "Titter feed," it was far more accurate.)

10/12/2011 09:41:11 am

ennealogic, to build off what you are saying, consider the people with whom Palin surrounds herself. Masochistic sycophants, willing to put up with or even cover for her odd behavior and raging abuse. People not likely to question the contrast between her stated and her actual conditions. Those who were sane gave her as wide a berth as possible.

MicMac

10/12/2011 09:52:57 am

Two words: John Edwards.

No, four. I must include my hero, Bill Clinton.

People get their heads in the clouds at the prospect (or actual possession) of power. They no longer think the rules of gravity prevail. A common human condition, actually.

Dis Gusted

10/12/2011 09:53:30 am

@ rubbernecking

SP has been accused of harassment and stalking as well. She just has better connections with the local police and authorities.

so what if the Christys were named in a lawsuit. Were they found guilty? The state trooper who corroborated Christy's story is also not to be believed?

Why do Rove and Cheney state that the real reason SP stepped down from office should be disclosed?

Where there's smoke, there is fire. SP is smokin' hot and I don't mean her looks.

Innocent until proven guilty, you know.

I don't believe anything any of the Heaths and Palins say either because they all are proven liars.

Where IS Willow????

FrostyAK

10/12/2011 10:04:50 am

@ Dis Gusted - Can you tell us more about the Christy/Willow story? With links other than to facebook or twitter? I do not/will not have an account on such insecure monstrosities.

I think that might be a very important borrow to follow in this infernal rabbit hole.

Palinoia

10/12/2011 10:42:44 am

@ Rubbernecking -

You quoted Levi's book:

Levi said Bristol called her mother and cried about the rumors; he said Palin's response was, "Too bad." Levi said he asked Palin about releasing a birth certificate and it made her very angry.

Does he reference WHEN Sarah said "Too bad"?

I believe this is probably ANOTHER nugget of truth. A) This doesn't disprove Bristol being pregnant, like they probably intended by showing Bristol being aghast at the rumors. In my mind, Sarah's response is EXACTLY what she would say if Bristol really were pregnant and ruining or possibly ruining Sarah's family values political platform.

Actually, it is what I myself might tell my 16 year old daughter if she became pregnant and everyone was "rumoring" about it. Ya know? You play, ya pay kinda thing.

ginny11

10/12/2011 11:07:57 am

Haven't caught up on comments yet, but this one really stuck out:
@rubbernecking said: "And in Apr-May 2008, no one knew that Palin's pregnancy story would be a factor in a presidential election. Nobody would have predicted that Palin would be retelling her birth story for fame and profit."
YES. It's very easy to forget that back in early March-April 2008, absolutely NO ONE thought Palin would become the VP candidate in six months. Yes, her name was floating around. But no one was really taking it seriously (not counting the bigwigs in the religious right). Anyone who got sucked into helping Palin cover her ass (including her staff, hospital staff, etc. etc.) didn't really think that this story would end up with nationally attention! I'm guessing a few people (CBJ, anyone) would have made VERY different decisions if they could have seen into the future six months.
It's easy to feel flattered, and like a real "insider" if you are "in the know" and helping your state's governor, as long as it's all local news. But when you (as a nurse or doctor or hospital board member) suddenly realize that the details of the crime you committed are under the national political microscope, that's a different story!

search4more

10/12/2011 11:34:58 am

Check out this Youtube channel.

http://bit.ly/pG0WQy

It has 2 videos in it with a load of Palin family pictures I haven't seen before. It was linked to in a comment on Politicalgates (the "A virtual brainstorming session" post).

It's basically just a slide show of pictures of Trig. Very interesting.

rubbernecking

10/12/2011 11:45:13 am

@Palinoia, Levi doesn't say exactly when Palin said "Too bad" to Bristol about pregnancy rumors. He says the rumors about Bristol having a baby began in Dec '06 and circulated for over a year. He said the rumors spread from Wasilla High throughout the state.

He said the rumor resurfaced again after Trig's birth. He worried about who people thought the father might be. He says, "We pretty much ignored it; it was too crazy for words."

Has anyone ever seen transcripts of Dan Fagan's radio show? He apparently discussed the rumors on his radio show on 4/23.

@FrostyAK, the sad christy family has been discussed on Joe McG's blog and IM. Willow is not selling memoirs, or relationship advice, or magazine photo shoots. She is a minor and these men's interest in her is wildly inappropriate, especially as they have restraining orders based on prior activities. Their behavior is not normal.

search4more

10/12/2011 11:59:34 am

At 1:59 in the video I linked to Trig has blue eyes. Not saying this is necessarily important. Eyes can change color if your a baby. It's just he looks a bit old in that picture. It's just an oddity I noticed I thought I'd mention.

There are 2 videos. I'm talking about the trigcentric one.

FrostyAK

10/12/2011 12:02:01 pm

@ rubbernecking _ I am very well aware of who the Christys are. It sounds as if Dis Gusted might have new info, a la a trooper. I will wait for Dis Gusted's answer, thank you.

Not normal draws like. Hence the palins drawing the Christys. I want to know if the East Coast family was baited.

@Dis Gusted - Willow was last seen prowling the streets of LA, I believe.

eva marie

10/12/2011 12:31:28 pm

Anybody notice the picture of a pregnant Bristol at 4:33 in the video search4more posted?

colacarat

10/12/2011 12:41:20 pm

eva marie @ 19:31,

Yes, that was a new one for me. I wish there were dates with these pictures. Does anyone recognize the people in this photo or have any idea when the photo was taken?

I've never seen Piper with glasses before this video. It also struck me that Willow looks absolutely gorgeous throughout the entire montage. I hope her mother's and sister's penchants for plastic surgery don't get passed on to her.

eva marie

10/12/2011 12:41:27 pm

Also the picture at 10:04, Bristol holding what looks like Tripp and Piper wearing a red cap and gown with a lei around her neck. Was she part of a graduation?

SunnyVee

10/12/2011 01:20:02 pm

Search4more,
I am glad I recognize your name, or I would suspect a Troll on this one...re. the youtube videos at http://bit.ly/pG0WQy

I call a Palin plant on these videos...given that they only went up a couple of days ago, and there is not much else posted... Feels kind of like the best they could do on the mention by MeAgain that Sarah's handlers were calling for pics of Trig to combat the questions...

JIMO. Thanks for the lead, tho !

DarkEFang

10/12/2011 01:22:51 pm

CBJ doesn't necessarily have to be part of a conspiracy. I've gone over this very topic in the past, and as HIPAA has been explained to me, CBJ is barred from telling anyone that she did not treat a particular patient.

The only time she would be able to come out and say that she wasn't Palin's doctor for a Trig pregnancy is if the AMA reviewed CBJ's medical license for malpractice in treating Palin. I don't know how that kind of thing works, but I'm guessing that Palin would have to initiate such a review.

As I figure it, assuming the mother of the baby is not Bristol, the third member of the conspiracy would be the broker that Palin used in acquiring the baby (that Dallas teen pregnancy center connected to Palin's Texas friends?). Since this adoption almost certainly broke laws regarding adoptions, the broker would have no incentive to talk.

Obviously, if Bristol is the mother, then she would be the third member of a conspiracy.

DarkEFang

10/12/2011 02:06:55 pm

Search4more mentions Beyonce's pregnancy fakery and how it might be used to highlight the Palin pregnancy. But is the press even pursuing the Beyonce story? So far, I've only seen it mentioned on some entertainment blogs and Chelsea Lately. I wouldn't consider any of those to be the mainstream media. It even took years before anyone in the mainstream press would pay attention to the John Edwards story.

Could it be that there's some unwritten rule amongst journalists that stories about pregnancies aren't pursued?

search4more

10/12/2011 02:17:30 pm

I wondered if that video was uploaded by someone in the Palin camp. I didn't really look very carefully on the politicalgates page to be honest. I read the top 7ish comments, saw the link to the video, looked at it, saw it had pictures in I hadn't seen before and posted it here.

I reckon it should be possible to date that Bristol Palin picture. I have no clue where it was from but I'm sure others can do it. Palin is wearing trousers at some kind of event. That's not that common. Also if you look in the description it says:

"A chronology of Sarah Palin's life from early 2008 through summer 09"

Also the person who has uploaded the video has left a comment that says:

"This chronology is down to the day."

There are massive jumps in time so I don't know what "down to the day" means. ...Anyway if it's in chronological order that should help with the dating.

Rationalist

10/12/2011 03:38:51 pm

Laura, I don't know how you keep up. There are so many comments I want to respond to! I will certainly miss some great ones, but here are a few quick responses:

comeonpeople - so, Laura gets hot and bothered at quarterback ass. To me, there is just about nothing hotter than Sam Shepard. I'm a little flushed reading your quote. So now you all know a little more about me!

Dangerous & rubbernecking - that is a very important point. What Palin was confident she could pull off at the time, when she was isolated in the back woods of Twin Peaks (I mean Wasilla), is very different from the scrambling that she's had to do once the international spotlight began to shine. Back then, though she may have desired the spotlight, no one could have anticipated how brightly and how fast it would come. The fact that she said yes to McCain, knowing these rumors were out there, speaks to sociopath level hubris.

Phyllis - that is fascinating. I had read the email about the day of the birth but not the others. It truly looks like she intentionally went back to cover her tracks.

DarkEFang said "Could it be that there's some unwritten rule amongst journalists that stories about pregnancies aren't pursued?"

It sure seems like it!

Ennealogic has it: "And one day, someone who knows and has the proof to back up their knowing will spill the beans. And then I can die in peace knowing I haven't been crazy all these years. :)"

It's got to be sociologically similar to the situation with pedophile priests. For generations their existence was the biggest open secret around. Everyone knew it was going on. It was a dark comedy staple. And yet life went on and on and on and no one would publicly address it.

And then, all of a sudden, the scale tipped, the camel's back broke, whatever. All of a sudden, after a few brave souls couldn't take it anymore, it was okay to talk about and the dam broke. (Sorry - that is a whole lot of mixed metaphors.)

This happens. Priest abuse. The Berlin Wall. Smoking in restaurants and airplanes. Don't Ask Don't Tell. Hosni Mubarek. Apartheid. Things that seemed like they would last forever suddenly were gone.

This will happen to Sarah Palin. I am sure of it. All of a sudden, the charade will be over. But it may be a while.

Oh, why not: one more metaphor. All the pressure - on Palin, on CBJ, on Mat-Su - all of it loosens things. We don't know which thing will cause something to give.

Okay! I'm metaphored out.

comeonpeople

10/12/2011 09:22:35 pm

@DarkEfang:

Where in HIPPA do you read that a doctor who didn't treat a patient can't reveal that she didn't treat a pt.?

Here is a musing for us all:
Say the governor of my state faked having cancer and said that one of the fine oncologists in my metropolitan area was named as the doctor. Then lets say my governor said that after her last chemo she ran a high fever and was shaking with chills. Then the governor says her doctor told het it was fine to go take a nap and call her later or come to his office when she gets back in town tomorrow. If this doctor did not make a statement about the absurdity of his alleged advice he'd be laughed out of town and widely discredited.
Same sort of deal in the absurdity with CBJ and Palin. Shaking chills and fever in an onco patient after chemo is a medical emergency and the person could be dead in a few hours if they were septic. It requires immediate attention much as a the attention a high risk pregant womanwith premature rupture of membranes leaking amniotic fluid requires immediate attention. She certainly would not be taking two airplane flights and told by her doctor "when you land i'll check you out".
The absurdity. It burns. Only in twin peaks does this go down.

Clue Digger

10/12/2011 09:47:38 pm

Just stumbled on a great example of why investigating Palin’s pregnancy is not only "fair" but VITALLY IMPORTANT.

It's a Seattle Times article posted on April 9, 2009, which describes one of Palin’s anti-abortion speeches.

A few excerpts provide the gist, and also a few minor details “straight-from-the-horse's- ummmmmm ... MOUTH” :

"As the Republican Party's vice-presidential candidate last year, Palin said little about her son's condition or the circumstances surrounding his birth. Her reticence prompted wild, Internet-fueled accusations about Trig's parentage, rumors that stung the governor, who has called the reporting about her family "very scary." ...

"Palin revealed more Thursday night, saying she was traveling when she got the result of the amniocentesis that revealed the chromosomal abnormality."

" 'There, just for a fleeting moment, I thought, I knew, "Nobody knows me here. Nobody would ever know." '

"Palin has long been a staunch supporter of abortion restrictions, and she pointed to her own 'moment of doubt' to illustrate her support for carrying pregnancies to term, regardless of the circumstances.

"She prayed during her pregnancy for the strength and compassion to love a baby with an extra chromosome, she said at the dinner hosted by Vanderburgh County Right to Life, her first major public appearance this year.

" 'The moment he was born, I knew for sure that my prayer was answered.' "

http://tinyurl.com/3s8v32c

And I'll know for sure that MY prayer was answered the moment the MSM announces to the world that the tireless efforts of some on-line activists has uncovered absolutely IRREFUTABLE proof that Sarah Palin's pregnancy with Trig was the most deplorable and detestable hoax in American political history ... (so far).

NSG

10/12/2011 10:21:24 pm

Re coverage of faked pregnancies, esp DarkEFang's comment about Beyonce's baby bump.

Believe me, I never watch the "Wendy Williams" show but happened to surf by at a moment that caught my attention. She did a pretty big piece on Beyonce's weird bump video and the rumors surrounding the allegedly fake pregnancy.

http://tinyurl.com/3qf3tvc

Pretty interesting, and she had a couple of legit pregnant staffers demonstrate how pregnant women really sit down. Fascinating that it's ok to ask these questions and do this level of analysis about a pop star but not a prospective VP.

V ictoria link

10/12/2011 10:52:09 pm

I want to go slightly O/T and address another reason why Palin would have started this charade - which, if I'm correct, began by hiding Bristol.

Palin is a perfectionist. Obviously not in her words or her deeds, but in her image. She can never be seen to make a mistake. We have evidence in the Paul Revere episode, when instead of saying she misspoke - which would have been a natural thing to do, answering a question on the spot - she tried to change history. Not only did she defend her position, but she got her bots to try to change Wikipedia.

It's a teeny-tiny version of the Trig pregnancy. Make a mistake, deny it, then work on the cover up. This is her personality.

I really think that she could not admit that her daughter had gotten pregnant and hence hid her. And then when the situation grew more complicated, she had to engage in cover up.

I do not understand why the MSM has ignored it.

Exp:Nov.05/08

10/12/2011 10:59:43 pm

Rubbernecking said:

Yes, my evidence is mostly hearsay. But you did not tell us about your evidence. Are you sitting on some video recordings of Bristol laughing about the pregnancy rumors?

Exp:Nov.05/08 is respectfully saying whoa... slow down, there, Hoss. If I were sitting on anything tangible, I'd be presenting it to a judge. We're not in court here. I have no more evidence or truths or hard facts about this thing than anyone else reading or commenting, probably much less. I've certainly not got the skills or time to research the way you and others do (research for which I am grateful - this should be exposed, and it will be the hard work of the bloggers and their "unique visitors" who widen the cracks in this).

I don't know if Bristol was laughing at the rumours. I don't live in AK and can only speculate, like everyone else. I can choose to believe whatever I want, given the (lack of) evidence. How Bristol felt about the rumours depends on whether or not she was, or had been, or was planning to be, pregnant. None of which anyone except Bristol herself and possibly her doctor knows for sure.

I'm here and interested because I have some experience with the family dynamics of secret pregnancies and abuse, and feel like I have something to contribute only because I've experienced some of this Palin-type behaviour in my own life. My contribution may not be as valuable as anyone else's, but I am comfortable expressing my opinion here because Laura allows for open conversation.

So here's one - there was the question of how a mother would react if she were faking a pregnancy, if there were rumours going around that her daughter was pregnant at the same time. I think she would be all "CHA-CHING!!! Problem half solved! Everyone will think I'm covering for my daughter and that something bad must have happened if I'm saying I'm pregnant when I'm clearly not so how awesome are these rumours and now NOBODY will question me or this pregnancy because they will be questioning my teenage daughter in the process and nobody wants to look like THAT kind of creep!"
Which seemed to have worked, until she hit the lower 48. Then she had to flip the script and make the rumours about Bristol true. It killed the previous rumours because Bristol couldn't be pregnant with two children simultaneously. And now the jury is still out on whether or not Bristol was really pregnant from March - Dec. 08.

You also said...
I think Palin's emails, Bailey's recollections, and Levi's recollections are reasonable evidence that Bristol was unhappy about the rumors.

Exp:Nov.05/08 is saying I think disordered personalities and their accomplices by proxy are mostly unreasonable, and notoriously hard to trust. They control people and the flow of information around them, accomplices pick up the slack and try to maintain the dysfunctional status quo, and victims are so clouded and messed up that they usually don't know what's what, other than the implications from their emotional predator of what might happen if they go off script.
If Bristol, Johnston or Bailey wanted to impress me with some nonfiction for a change, they can confirm what the rest of us here already know and at least say there was something very wrong with Palin's pregnancy claim from the start and that they can't say for sure she was pregnant with Trig. Levi might even mention in a future tome that since most of the planet figured Bristol is Trig's mom that it stood to reason that Levi is Trig's dad. Did he mention that? Or did he deliberately omit himself from the speculation, the way Bristol tried to do with her flippant "oh, they thought Trig's mom was Willow... and, oh, right, almost forgot, um, they also said it could be me, too! Crazy, right? So crazy!" (paraphrasing)

All I hear from any of them is that, as far as they know, SP WAS pregnant with Trig. I'm sorry, but that makes them unreliable witnesses. And the onus isn't on me to provide evidence or prove anything. That onus is on Sarah Palin, or those who DO have evidence. Every statement by the key players is hearsay. If they can't even admit that Palin's pregnancy was suspect from the time she announced it, then I don't trust what they have to say.

I have no stake in this other than to see all of us here somewhat vindicated in our fairly accurate perceptions of the Palins' twisted reality (given the limited information we've been provided from those who live within it).

Dis Gusted

10/12/2011 11:29:48 pm

@FrostyAK, the sad christy family has been discussed on Joe McG's blog and IM. Willow is not selling memoirs, or relationship advice, or magazine photo shoots. She is a minor and these men's interest in her is wildly inappropriate, especially as they have restraining orders based on prior activities. Their behavior is not normal.

what a loon you are- Shawn's father never showed any interest in Willow. Shawn is 19 years old and has mental issues.

As the story goes - Shawn received sext messages from SP and the sexting continued for a few weeks or months. When Shawn showed his parents the texts, they confronted SP. SP denied making the messages and said Willow did it.

Willow was then removed from the home. Sally & Chuck contacted Shawn Christy and told him to call them anytime. He called once and the Heaths claimed he called to threaten them.

They got a restraining order against him in PA while they live in AK. Shawn traveled to AK in February. He wanted to meet SP personally. That was a violation of the restraining order that indicated no contact.

Chuck Heath claimed he received a threatening letter. Unfortunately, for him, no letter has been admitted into evidence. Willow told Shawn (according to Shawn) that Chuck burned it. He claims he never wrote a letter.

Because of that alleged letter, the restraining order was extended another 6 months.

In the meantime, Shawn states that he was still in contact w/Willow. She said she was pregnant and under lock & key at the Norma Kline Institute of NY.

In addition to the sexting - SP encouraged Shawn to write threatening letters to the president. This is the real reason she stepped down from the governor's office.

It's a long, sordid story.

Shawn Christy does have mental problems. He lost his job because of the legal problems. His parents lost their home trying to pay for legal council and Shawn's therapies.

I just have to wonder how did Willow get SP's phone? She has her gadgets in her hands 24 hours a day.

rubbernecking

10/13/2011 12:20:13 am

@Exp:Nov.05/08, I realize weebly's commenting system is really primitive, but I'm scratching my head about our exchange. I've gone back and re-read each of our comments:

1. I asked another commenter a hypothetical question that assumes Bristol did not like the pregnancy rumors, and that Palin had an ethical obligation to protect her daughter's privacy and reputation. [12 Oct 2011 09:27:55]

2. You challenge "there's no proof" for Bristol's unhappiness with pregnancy rumors. [12 Oct 2011 09:44:56]

3. I offer proof of Bristol's unhappiness from emails and memoirs. [12 Oct 2011 10:19:15]

4. You say my proof is hearsay and we should consider your theories instead. [12 Oct 2011 11:02:09]

5. I agree that my evidence is hearsay but ask what evidence you have for your theories. [12 Oct 2011 10:19:15]

6. You complain I am establishing a too high bar for evidence and everyone should be free to speculate. [13 Oct 2011 05:59:43]

All I'm asking is that you apply the same standards to yourself that you apply to me.

P.S. Bailey and Levi both acknowledge in their books that Palin's pregnancy was odd.

rubbernecking

10/13/2011 12:36:45 am

@Dis Gusted, you are confused. I am the person you want to call a loon. The quote you assign to @FrostyAK is mine.

Let's get real.

A mentally ill man who threatened the president is not a credible source for information on the Palins.

A mentally ill person who believes he is receiving secret instructions or communications from the Palins is not credible. Sane people don't follow instructions to physically threaten the president.

A mentally ill person who has existing restraining orders should not be encouraging online conversations about the whereabouts of a 17-year old girl. This Christy person is so out-of-it, he fails to act even in his own self-interest.

lilly lily

10/13/2011 01:11:03 am

johnny Chandler. In trouble? Out of trouble?

Play mate or friend to both Mercede and Bristol He seems to have been swept under the rug.

Ben Barbour got a job after he was demoted.

What happened to Gino, the italian stallion? Also playmate? and friend to both Mercede and Bristol.

They all know.

lilly lily

10/13/2011 01:38:21 am

While Christie is troubled and has been arrested for bothering Palins Lawyers, that doesn't explain why the Heaths, Sally in particular wanted him to call them and talk things over. This after her husband talks about keeping a gun in the house. So Christy father calls, and calls and is scatological and threatening to Palins lawyer and is arrested.

Silenced? ya betcha.

Loads of people know the truth, but have no proof.

Doesn't Laura Novak have the final say on what can and cannot be discussed?

Bristol seemed to think her mother thought she was pregnant, or am I wrong?

Other people speculated and gossiped as people always do.

What does Bristol getting upset have to do with it. Upset that people thought she was pregnant erroniously? Or upset that people realized she actually was pregnant?

10/13/2011 01:49:28 am

Cluedigger, if the reporter correctly recounted Sarah's telling it is interesting. Maybe I'm misremembering, but didn't she report that "No one knows me here" thought when she claims she found out she was pg, in New Orleans? I'll have to check out GR.

And an interesting thing I noticed about the Beyonce story. Yesterday People & Us websites reported the Beyonce story with several photos of Beyonce sitting down on the Australian TV show. Today, the photos on those stories are different... all posed photos of Beyonce and her big belly.

rubbernecking

10/13/2011 02:34:42 am

@Cluedigger/@Up, in "Going Rogue" Palin said she learned she was pregnant in New Orleans, and learned about the amnio results in Alaska.

This is what she said about learning she was pregnant in GR:

***
Since nobody knew me in New Orleans, I asked my security guy to drop me off at a Walgreens. Back at the hotel, before
my speech, I followed the instructions on the pregnancy test box. Slowly a pink image materialized on the stick.
***

This is what she said about the amnio in GR:
***
Three days later, I was in my Anchorage office when CBJ called. I thought it was strange she would give me the
results. I could have sworn that the nurse said she'd be calling. I still remember what time it was: 2:22 pm.

"I have the amnio results," she said. "I think you should come to my office in Wasilla. Can you come now?"
***

It's also possible that the reporter mis-transcribed the speech. Her speaking style can be very confusing.

lilly lily

10/13/2011 02:39:42 am

I find it interesting that the main stream media is completly ignoring Palins out of place remarks about North Korea regime change. As usual South Korea has to walk on eggs at a delicate time. The Korean papers mentioned it front and center, but even there is vanished quickly after she was reprimanded in a tactful way, namely being told how she thinks isn't the way South Korea and our state department is handling the usual sabre rattling by the North Korean leader.

Our Northwest is in line for a rogue missle if the North Korean crazy ever goes complely ape. The Chinese do have some control over him. The populace is starving while the military remains fed.

She is attempting to establish credentials in foreign affairs by going to these countries and shooting off her mouth. She goes to dinner in Isreal with their leader so she is an expert. Bull. She has a speach written for her in Korea and she who thought North Korea was an ally becomes an Asian expert.

Namely our government isn't pushing trouble with North Korea or China. She doesn't hesitate to run at the mouth.

Palin is the bull in the China shop. She should have her passport pulled.

I see how news is managed. They handle Palin with kid gloves is a eye opener, though I always knew that powerful entities get a pass and that news is often erroneous. I have seen it first hand.

Powerful friends matter. And apparently the lamestream press is Palins friend.

I'm not, so I'll shoot off with my own opinions as I choose.

NSG

10/13/2011 02:58:28 am

@lilly lily, I agree w much of what you've said. And along those lines, I also found it outrageous that the MSM ignored a similar stunt she described in her 9/27 interview w Greta Van Susteren: http://tinyurl.com/3wqp2lq

She related the story of having gone to dinner with the Israeli PM and basically says it's ok for her to ignore the American President & State Dept, cuz she sez so!

See video at 11:17...

“I took action. I went over to Israel. I had dinner with the Prime Minister and his family. We formed a good relationship there. And I was able to express what I believe the majority of Americans feel in terms of our relationship with Israel in speaking with the Prime Minister. And I told him that we do support Israel. And if he were to hear or perceive that we’re, our government is kind of poking our ally in the eye, well don’t believe that that is the voice of the majority of American people, we are their friends.

“So that’s an example, Greta, of not just sitting back, rattling cages in the media, but actually doing something about an issue that needs to be addressed.”

Who the hell does she think she is?!?!?! Is she really stupid enough to think she can a) do that, and b) proudly announce it on national teevee?! (I know. Don't bother answering that question.)

And if it had been Nancy Pelosi or Barbara Boxer who'd said such a thing, cable "news" would be in full alert and TPers would be building a gallows on Times Square to "string her up." But Palin pulls her stunts and ..... crickets.

THIS is why we can't let Palin slink away. Because she's won't. She's still a threat until she's fully discredited and proven for what she really is.

Ottoline

10/13/2011 03:15:20 am

Other than our impressions (based on data that are not proof), the one and only real piece of proof we have is the photos of SP's too-flat profile in the weeks before the "birth" of Trig. Okay, the photos of different ears are proof of two different babies, but we cannot identify details.

And no one has showed enough interest to make the case with the photos: not Andrew Sullivan, not McGinniss, not any of the other writers. Brad's paper appeared and has disappeared. Bloggers are ignored, as McG points out twice in "Rogue."

Everything else is circumstantial, or hypothetical, or unsubstantiated: the various theories about Bristol's role; the birthdays of the babies; the chronic lying; the other odd data like fires, deaths, arrests; family aminosity; family crime or bad behavior; the various blog informers who might or might not be real, but in either case have offered nothing concrete enough to move anything forward. We see that the insurance discussions have not yielded proof. We see that neither CBJ nor the hospitals are likely to volunteer any info. The odd CBJ medical letter is of interest to no one.

Info that WE have considered interesting enough for investigation has not been investigated: Shailey Tripp's info, the odd police letter denying Todd's involvement, the various Palingates.

I'd say we are stuck. The suspicion we have of a high-level order for a media blackout suggests that high-level enablers do not want to be quizzed about this hoax. It looks like they will be successful in making the PalinHoax (and all the other PalinGates) fade into the dim past.

Someone mentioned Bletchley Park, and that seems an apt comparison: plenty of people motivated to keep the secret, plus a probable high-level media watch aimed at suppressing any revelations. Of course, Bletchley Park was for a good cause, and the PalinHoax was to win an election via deception and duplicity.

It seems impossible now that "Fred" will be able to change this unfortunate example that foreshadows more such manipulation of the electorate. Esp considering the vast sums and lack of transparency that the Supremes have made possible in elections.

Does anyone see a hopeful direction in any of this that I have missed?

DarkEFang

10/13/2011 03:32:03 am

@ comeonpeople

"@DarkEfang:

Where in HIPPA do you read that a doctor who didn't treat a patient can't reveal that she didn't treat a pt.?"

Last year (or was it 2009?), when I was attempting to argue against the idea that a faked Palin pregnancy would have to involve a broad spectrum of family members, political operatives and medical personnel, it was explained to me in the comments that it is a HIPAA violation for a doctor to say that they haven't ever treated a particular person. Nobody disputed that assertion, so I assume it must have been correct.

Now that I'm thinking about it, if it's a HIPAA violation to deny having seen a patient, would it also be a HIPAA violation for CBJ to deny writing the medical statement released by Palin on election eve?

rubbernecking

10/13/2011 04:00:27 am

@Ottoline, I realize I'm in the inhouse crank. I never found Shailey Tripp interesting.

I'm here because I believed it was possible to find evidence that would help reveal the truth. I'm here because I thought we needed different questions to engage a wider audience in the investigation.

I believe there is more evidence available in news photos and videos, in flight logs, emails, and memoirs.

I'm disappointed we haven't found a better way to crowd-source the funding and execution of more fact-based research. I worry that excessive focus on anonymous IM commenters and the musings of people like Christy and S. Tripp plays a big role in MSM disdain for this investigation.

Ottoline

10/13/2011 04:32:52 am

rubbernecking -- I don't think of you as a crank at all. I think we have to balance far-flung, wide discussion with strategically focused rigor. I think there's room for both.

But the former has to lead, eventually, to the latter, and it did in the case of the photos. I had looked at that Mar 14 picture many times before the person who lightened it made its meaning clear. And ditto (in a different way) the Mar 26 photos.

So far, our latest directions have not yielded anything an outsider would care about. Not to say they might not lead to something later. I.e., insurance fraud or the dates. What "different questions" did you have in mind?

Re flight logs: I don't think we have looked for or found any indication that the flights from TX to AK were altered to be earlier. Documenting that those flights were unchanged would be another indication that there was in fact no rush associated with the supposed Wild Ride. But we already know there was no Wild Ride because we know SP was not pregnant.

My take on S. Tripp is that allegations of big-time prostitution, if true, are already adequately defended against, as part of doing that kind of business. Bloggers aren't going to make a dent in that, esp when there's so much at stake for participants in such a business.

Tada

10/13/2011 04:32:55 am

What are the odds that Levi may have had a sexual encounter with Sarah? What are the odds that Bristol may have had a sexual encounter with Keith (Levi's dad)? Has that scenario been looked at? When did Keith and Sherry split? What was the cause of the split? Is it true that Sherry gave Bristol a cell-phone, which later was given back to Sherry and which then was used in the sting operation that got Sherry arrested? Why did she get a phone for Bristol? Why was it returned? When was it returned? How did the person setting up the sting operation know to call this number? Why do we hear a lot about Sherry, Levi and Mercede, but almost nothing about Keith? I've seen only one pic of Keith - the pic where is standing next to a very young looking Levi and where Keith is holding Tripp. When was that picture taken? To me it appears the pic must have been taken early 2008 or in 2007. If so, it means Tripp was born long before Dec 2008, which means Bristol faked the birth in Dec 2008. Is it just a coincidence that Sherry got arrested days before the alleged birth-date? Is it just a coincidence that Palin's church burned a few days before the alleged birth? Is it just a coincidence that Dar Miller died a few days after the alleged birth-date (and before Tripp had been seen in public)? Has anyone contacted Dar Miller's girlfriend to see if Dar was looking after an infant prior to her death (she was a former neo natal nurse)? Was Dar Miller in any way connected to Linda Lewis Miller? Is it just a coincidence that Linda Lewis Miller's brother was killed and his house burned to the ground the night of Palin's speech at the RNC convention in Sep 2008 - just a month after Linda Lewis Miller sent another alarming email to Gov Palin about the Gov and her Administration's failure to rescue several children from abusive foster parents (search for Linda Lewis Miller and/or OCS in Palin's email to find email dated aug 30, 2008)? Did Linda Lewis Miller's brother and/or his two eldest sons know the Palins? Just askin!

ApparentReality

10/13/2011 04:36:57 am

Rationalist- The one wild card left out is CBJ's husband. He must know. He HAS to know. Even though doctors cannot discuss their patients, this is so big and so pervasive that I would be shocked if he doesn't know the truth. What is stopping him from spilling? Getting his wife into trouble? He could tell all and never reveal his name.

lilly lily

10/13/2011 04:47:05 am

Oh for gods sakes. Of course doctors talk about such things to their spouses.

They also discuss it with other doctors.

Keith had a long time mistress. An on going affair.

Sarah seducing Levi, I can see it. Bristol going bonkers over that. I can see it.

Ottoline

10/13/2011 05:08:26 am

Tada's questions are fine, but there is no way to get answers to them, and certainly not answers that are documented as proof of anything.

Dar Miller is not related to the other Miller. Gryphen says Keith is not involved. Of course there is professional gossip, including to spouses. That's why Dar might have known all, from her NICU colleagues. But no proof. Assuming CBJ's husband shares CBJ's fundie views, why would he talk? Why would he want to hurt his wife's livelihood?

Although the hoax might have started with v few in the know, by late 2008 anyone who can read could have known all about it and would have talked to their nearest AK pal about it. Everything we know, anyone can know. But no one has the combo of "compelling reason + compelling proof" to speak up.

lilly lily

10/13/2011 05:22:11 am

It is never going to go away.

IT IS HERE and it will stay simmering away on someones back burner like a slow cooker to end all slow cookers, with a detail added here, and a detail added there, and eventually the full puzzle will be revealed with proofs.

And all the kings (Koch Bros and Murdoch) horses and all the kings men (Hannity and Greta van Susteran) will not be able to put Sarah Louise Heath Palin together again. And certainly not into the White House.

LOL. So she was trading stories with a Korean female politician who also has a DS child. Is the Korean politician also a fundi?

Melly

10/13/2011 05:32:16 am

NSG, I'm with you on Palin's continuing toxicity, but I was heartened by the coverage of her blathering in Korea. No one took her seriously. Of course, that former paper of record and stature, the NYT, gave her coverage worthy of a candidate...like they were asleep last week when she said "I'M NOT RUNNING." But otherwise, no one reacted much at all to the regime change b.s. she spouted. And she really wasn't even present in spirit at the last Repub debate. What I'm looking forward to more than anything else (exc maybe Fred's book, but I'm not counting a lot on that)is the Chip Toma(sp?) lawsuit against Palin...the lemonade lawsuit. It will show beautifully how this fraud operates--small, petty, tireless in pursuit of vengeance, and completely willing to lie.

FrostyAK

10/13/2011 05:45:28 am

@ rubbernecking - why are you quoting $P's fantasy novel Going Rogue? Those who handled her during the election even said publicly that it was 100% fiction. $P lies as a matter of course. Any truth will be so buried that it will be unusable due to lack of context/evidence.

That applies to her daughter, mini-me, as well.

Anyone who takes anything coming from $P as fact needs to take a long step back and look at all of the Gates and lies surrounding her. Trace it all the way back to the early '90's. We in the Wasilla area lived it.

Conscious at last!

10/13/2011 05:49:07 am

WOW just WOW @ Sunnyvee re: the new video "plant" of the Palin Clan

This is a slick one folks! I could only manage to watch 2/3rds of it. But a few subliminal messages were clear-

FIRST and most important, WILLOW is the star baby holder!! Bristol is AWOL almost completely. Willow & Piper are everywhere. SP actually makes physical contact with Trig(s) as well. Perhaps she had a Monk-like handler off-camera who supplies the wipes after each Trig encounter ;).

SECOND, there is a lot of "family love" and affection. Todd is seen showing loving kindness to the kids.
(WILLOW, WILLOW, WILLOW.... Bristol? Bristol who??)

THIRD, who or whatever MeAgain actually is, this is certainly what he/she predicted. It's a smooth re-packaging of Palin's rise to national prominence. If you have a strong stomach, it's actually a very instructive tool to learn about propaganda. Watch it and see how many of the "messages" you can spot. I could only manage about 7 minutes and then my inners cried "ENOUGH!"

rubbernecking

10/13/2011 06:02:49 am

@FrostyAK, I quoted "Going Rogue" because it was relevant to a discussion between @Clue Digger and @Up.

@Clue Digger's comment about a Palin speech here [13 Oct 2011 04:47:38].

@Up recommended checking Palin's account in "Getting Rogue" here [13 Oct 2011 08:49:28].

I wish there was a better way to respond to specific comments but other than referencing someone's moniker, I'm not sure what else to do.

lilly lily

10/13/2011 06:21:56 am

So she is "reloading" as she put it.

Repackaging her same old moldy and aging carcass and toxic family saga into a new and shiny packing.

Same ole, same ole stuff inside folks.

That was what she was doing with the Korean female politician with the DS child.

Charm the pants off the newbees.

curiouser

10/13/2011 06:45:43 am

Sarah thought about abortion twice, according to the speech in Indiana: when she found out she was pregnant 'while out of state' and again when the amnio results came in.

At 4:40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaLPEoAoV2g

Start at 2:19 if you want the whole 'Trig enters our world' part of her speech. It's chock full of drama and humor. ; )

"And it has been such a trip not telling anybody that I was pregnant until a month before I had him.” Even funnier, though, was when I finally told some reporters...and...uh, uh...some other time I’ll tell you about that...but it was hilarious when I started telling folks I was pregnant...”

Dis Gusted

10/13/2011 07:13:54 am

@Dis Gusted, you are confused. I am the person you want to call a loon. The quote you assign to @FrostyAK is mine.

unfortunately I included your stab at FrostyAK when I C&P'd your post. I was definitely calling YOU a loon, not anyone else....

I agree that Shawn Christy has problems. However, his story has been corroborated by the state trooper on Palin duty, Karl Rove and Dick Cheney.

Conscious at last!

10/13/2011 07:32:27 am

@ Disgusted (and I DO mean you)

Can you offer us some links regarding your info about Shawn Christy, the state trooper, Rove and Cheney? Thanks.

SunnyVee

10/13/2011 07:40:12 am

Conscious at last,
re. the veracity of the Palin videos on youtube..."I know !! Right?!!" (for lack of a more mature response).
It may be the soundtracks that gave it away for me - all about the loving family blah blah blah. I also (gut) feel that the video format makes it easier to make less seem like more...anyone notice how old most of the pics with Trig are?? Nothing too recent, IMO.

I definitely did not want to seem insulting to search4more (or which commenter first posted this link) - BUT, I have to admit that finding these 2-3 new videos on youtube felt JUST LIKE an exchange that I had on IM, right after the first posts by MeAgain.
..when a strange new Flikr account went up with happy happy Palin family moments...

only time will tell...

Joie Vouet link

10/13/2011 07:41:16 am

rubbernecking @ 1544, If you must know, I'd ignore it. Do you know that a common rumor about high school girls is, "She's pregnant?"

I don't have a belief. I may be the most open-minded person here. When I responded to ottoline, I mentioned that my interest is which is the hoax: 1) sarah was pregnant or 2) sarah faked it.

I thought when I mentioned about Bristol shooting Levi's book, people might realize that the Palins live in a different emotional space. For that reason it's not productive for anyone to project their values onto what the palins do.

Again, this is not about me, but about Sarah Palin. What I would do is irrelevant.

Tada

10/13/2011 07:59:35 am

What are the odds that Sarah Palin have had access to a secret bank account in the name of 'Safari Investments LLC' since 1996? What are the odds that she did not report that account/company on any of her financial disclosure forms? The odds of that is 100%. What was the purpose of establishing that Delaware entity back in 1996? Surely, an anti-corruption champion like $arah would not start her public "service" career by secretly doing the bidding of hidden money masters? Silly me, she probably completely forgot about that company for 15 years until she needed to pay $1.6 million for her new mansion this past summer? But money came rolling into that account over the years, isn't that right $arah? And you kept fighting corruption by projecting it in the wrong direction. and you're still going strong. You haven't retreated at all have you? Nah. Just reloaded and 'advanced in a new direction'. You got two new words that you'll be repeating ad nauseam until the 2012 election; no, not 'death panels', that's so last election. No, this time it's 'crony capitalism' - and you're not for it, you're against it! And that's not ironic and whatnot!! You got those two little words straight from G.O.D. - the Ghastly Old Dudes also known as the Koch Brothers - isn't that right? Oh yeah, you'll soak up the anti-corruption sentiment and project it onto the non-cronies, and the lamestream media will be there with ya! I mean, just look at all those cronies occupying the streets right now. Someone needs to take the cronies by their horns and fight the crony capitalism like a true anti-corruption champion; Less regulation! Unlimited corporate donations to politicians! Citizens United! I mean, come on, who can possibly be against citizens united for the common good? Oh yes, it all makes sense - if you're mentally ill.

FrostyAK

10/13/2011 08:16:01 am

I agree with SunnyVee and Conscious at last! on the newly uploaded utube videos. I only had the stomach to watch the short one all the way through.

1. It's a response to the h8ters for daring to question their happy, cheery, loving, tiptoeing through the tulips family. And to those horrible people who doubt her sincere testimony ala the appearance of TriG.

2. A coincidence that $P says she doesn't believe in. Just after someone supposedly in the know states there are no current pics of Trig and his happy blah blah family.

3. Did anyone see TriG wearing his sight and audio devices? Appearance is everything in that family ya know, can't have a kid who needs appliances!

4. Were there any recent (as in this past year) happy blah blah pics of $p and TriG? Also too, who knows WHAT baby she was playing kissy face with?

Suggest downloading the 2 vids, as I expect they will disappear quickly once the criticisms are known.

Tada

10/13/2011 08:52:31 am

@Ottoline "Dar Miller is not related to the other Miller. Gryphen says Keith is not involved."
---------------------------------------------------
Do we KNOW for certain that there's no connection between Dar Miller and Linda Lewis Miller? If so, how do we KNOW this? She's not related to her husbands family? They were not friends?

Does Gryphen KNOW that Keith is not involved? If so, how does he KNOW this? If that knowledge is based on statements by Sherry, Mercede or Levi, then that "knowledge" is worth zero to me. If Bristol discovered an affair between Levi and her mother, what do you think her likely reaction/revenge would be? Think about it, why would the Johnston family not fight for custody? Why does Levi seem more "fond of" Trig than Tripp?

mxm

10/13/2011 09:39:55 am

Re: the recently released Youtube videos, yes I agree that this is exactly what MeAgain predicted. Also too, the pics of Trig look to me to ALL predate the last photo we saw of him with Tripp on the cement pad. They are all dated. Nothing more recent. Trig has been outsourced to a paid caretaker. And he is happy there, according to MeAgain. I hope that is true.

LuckyDawg

10/13/2011 10:40:05 am

Here are some questions about odds:

What are the odds that:

Sarah has a DS baby 6 mos after her sister tearfully expresses distress over raising a special needs child in today's world

her daughter has one AFTER the above email event

---

We know Sarah was in talks concerning other OCS issues and troubling situations, some involving teens. I think she adopted a helpless woman's baby. The Palins are warm and inviting toward basically anyone who is equally friendly. None of this is a stretch.

MGM

10/13/2011 10:41:54 am

mxm, that youtube video is a perfect chronology since April 18th. That is the point of it, to help us keep things in focus.

Ottoline

10/13/2011 10:42:18 am

Tada, you said: "What are the odds that Sarah Palin have had access to a secret bank account in the name of 'Safari Investments LLC' since 1996? What are the odds that she did not report that account/company on any of her financial disclosure forms? The odds of that is 100%. What was the purpose of establishing that Delaware entity back in 1996?"

This sounds familiar but I can't place it. Links? Do you have answers to your questions?

Re Dar and the other Miller: not siblings, per obits. I should have been more specific. The link to Dar is so tenuous: her NICU background, and MA's vague mention of a special-needs baby nurse. Does anyone know anything more? Except that both fires *might* have been arson, I see nothing to connect the two Millers.

Gryphen seems reliable to me in pointing us in the right direction -- more reliable than an anon commenter who has apparently not yet connected with Gryphen.

SunnyVee

10/13/2011 10:43:06 am

Uh. LuckyDawg,
The biggest stretch I hear is, "the palins are warm and inviting."

If you were pasting in from prior comments...my apologies.

If you were being serious?...try again,
you so silly.

Stop lying, stop lying now

10/13/2011 10:47:31 am

Considering how much Sadie has Gryphen fooled on many things, I sincerely doubt he knows many deep details. Gryphen is FAR from an objective source in this.

To see the big picture, we must remove the Johnstons AND Palins from the equation and look at actual events.

Words matter little here. Everyone has lied. The events don't support Levi, Sadie's or Bristol's stories.

But that's just it, their personal stories. Personal anecdotes and these alleged tales aren't relevant to a leader. If that crap were, the last 3 PResident, including current one, wouldn't have made it far at all in their respective careers.

American's couldn't care less about trivial, unproven BS. People are pretty natural fibbers in general. That's the only way to explain the number of people who have lied on and off the record about Sarah.

It's just sad that her parents and extended family, who are all incredible and the warmest people you'll meet, is dragged into it.

Lucky Dawg

10/13/2011 10:48:20 am

Sunny Vee, I am serious. Sorry to burst your fantasy bubble.

FAO Go

10/13/2011 10:51:02 am

Tada, I cannot speak for Levi but I can't help but remember the ET video where Levi was changing Tripps diaper. He said hes not the biggest fan of this part and he looked slightly awkward.

I maintain that his book is one big fabrication to help paint a different and better picture of himself and try to tell people he HASNT wasted 3 years doing jackcrap.

ModerateMama

10/13/2011 11:03:20 am

"to learn about propaganda"

To really learn what propaganda is, head on over to palingates archives and any post Patrick and Kathleen have written.

ALL they do is twist things to suit their purpose. They purposefully leave information out. I know. I used to supply them with info. They habitually edited things to elicit the desired response.

I also know several of their "sources." I know who blatantly lies and who has zero credibility.

Sad sad for the journalism world. Sadder that we now have a once respected author writing a piece of trash. Joe, I'm sorry you were duped into believing liars. I could've warned you.

FrostyAK

10/13/2011 11:11:13 am

Hi Brooklyn, how much does $P pay you to write that happy cuddly tripe? Nothing? You are just an infatuated fan? You really should be paid for what you do. Tell $P I said so.

RLH

10/13/2011 11:20:47 am

Disgusted, there are so many things wrong with your comment, I have to comment to correct:
-----------

what a loon you are- Shawn's father never showed any interest in Willow. Shawn is 19 years old and has mental issues. DID YOU READ HIS WALL? HE CALLS WILLOW SOME OFTHE VILEST WORDS. EVEN JON CORBITT CAME TO THE PALINS DEFENSE AND WARNED ALASKANS HE KNEW TO NOT ACCEPT THESE MEN'S FB FRIEND REQUESTS. THEY FRIENDED ANY ALASKAN THEY COULD

As the story goes - Shawn received sext messages from SP and the sexting continued for a few weeks or months. When Shawn showed his parents the texts, they confronted SP. SP denied making the messages and said Willow did it.
SARAH HAS NEVER ADDRESSED THIS, SHE NEVER MENTIONED WILLOW. SHAWN CONTINUALY BROUGHT WILLOW INTO THE CONVO, EVEN GOING SO FAR AS TO SAY HE WANTS TO DATE HER AND MAKE UP RIDICULOUS STORIES ABOUT MEETING HER

Willow was then removed from the home.
UM, THATS A NEGATIVE

Sally & Chuck contacted Shawn Christy and told him to call them anytime. He called once and the Heaths claimed he called to threaten them.
THOUGH CHUCK AND SALLY ARE WARM PEOPLE, I HIGHLY DOUBT THEY REACHED OUT TO THE CHRISTYS. THEYVE SEEN CRAZY SHIT IN THE LAST 3 YEARS. THEY WOULDNT ENCOURAGE ANYONE. PLUS, BOTH SHAWN AND CRAIGS STORIES CHANGED CONSTANTLY REGARDING THIS. THEY EVEN SAID MOLLY CALLED THEM NONSTOP, WHICH IS RIDIC AS WELL

They got a restraining order against him in PA while they live in AK. Shawn traveled to AK in February. HE ACTUALLY THOUGHT SARAH WAS A CPAC. HE DIDNT KNOW SHE WAS IN AK He wanted to meet SP personally. That was a violation of the restraining order that indicated no contact.

Chuck Heath claimed he received a threatening letter. Unfortunately, for him, no letter has been admitted into evidence. Willow told Shawn (according to Shawn) that Chuck burned it. He claims he never wrote a letter. DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THE HEATHS AND PALINS CONTACT A RANDOM FAMILY?
BECAUSE IVE GOT A BRIDGE TO NOWHERE IF YOU DO

Because of that alleged letter, the restraining order was extended another 6 months.
GOOD. EVEN PALIN CRITICS IN AK WERE GLAD TO SEE THIS

In the meantime, Shawn states that he was still in contact w/Willow. She said she was pregnant and under lock & key at the Norma Kline Institute of NY.
HE NEEDS TO BE LOCKED UP. I HOPE HES GETTING HELP AND IS AWAY FROM CIVILIZATION

In addition to the sexting - SP encouraged Shawn to write threatening letters to the president. This is the real reason she stepped down from the governor's office.
IVE NEVER READ THAT SARAH ENCOURAGED THIS. SHAWN WROTE THESE LETTERS BEFORE HE CONTACTED SARAH

It's a long, sordid story.

Shawn Christy does have mental problems. He lost his job because of the legal problems. His parents lost their home trying to pay for legal council and Shawn's therapies. SHAWN ACTUALLY TOLD ME IN PRIVATE CHAT THAT HIS PARENTS ARE THE MOST FINANCIALLY IRRESPONSIBLE PEOPLE ON EARTH. WHEN SHAWN EVENTUALLY THREATENED ME AS HE THREATENED MOST ALASKANS HE STALKED, I SHOT BACK SAYING I WILL POST HIS DAMNING MESSAGES THAT WILL KEEP HIM LOCKED UP FOREVER. THAT BOY IS VILE AND NEEDS LIFELONG PSYCHE HELP.

I just have to wonder how did Willow get SP's phone? She has her gadgets in her hands 24 hours a day.

AlaskanSex

10/13/2011 11:25:06 am

I just think it's interesting that Frank STILL, after everything, believes Trig is Sarah's biological son. TO THIS DAY. Now, I like Frank from afar. He seems decent and someone able to a let go of grudges. He seems fulfilled in his life, unlike many of the other Palin critics. People who can't let people move on from the past have far greater issues than the person they criticize. That, and all the lies told about Sarah is just sickening.

10/13/2011 11:25:26 am

otto, Safari llc is the Delaware Corp that paid for the Palin's Arizona house, with $3 mil out of nowhere.

Youknow

10/13/2011 11:26:55 am

@Joie Vouet, in other words, she shot a book cover with a picture of her son's father on it. That looks like anger, hostility, and immaturity in some quarters.

Or it's a way to combat his lies.

Tada

10/13/2011 11:50:14 am

@Ottoline
The death of Linda Lewis Miller's brother David E. Lewis was ruled a homicide. He was murdered and then his house was set on fire with him inside. This happened the same night as $P's speech at the RNC convention. This happened about 35 days after Linda Lewis Miller's very critical e-mail to Gov Palin about the abused foster children - one of which died due to lack of timely intervention by the appropriate authorities. Did Linda Lewis Miller get a response to her Aug 30th e-mail to Gov Palin? If not, did she follow up with more e-mails or phone calls between Aug 30th and the convention speech? What happened after her brother died - did she continue pushing the issue or did she drop it? What happened with the foster children? Did they get compensation? What happened with Rachel Levitt? Did Gov Palin appoint Rachel Levitt as permanent Director of OPA despite Miller's warnings?

In regard to Dar Miller's death - has anyone been in contact with Michaele Hannam? If so, what did she have to say? Is she still in Wasilla?

Viola-Alex

10/13/2011 12:17:10 pm

Very interesting comment, Tada. I googled Linda Lewis Miller and a July email to Palin popped up (re: Levitt). Has no one investigated Lewis-Miller's connection to Sarah?

And I'm assuming Michaele Hannam is Dar Miller's former partner?

You sound connected to all of this.

Cyn

10/13/2011 12:29:24 pm

I believe there are a lot of people in AK that know enough about the Palins to bring her down. I also believe that some palin blog owners know more than their willing to write about right now. What stops them is probably fear or waiting for a pay off.
I can't think of a reason to not believe Joe M when he states people really fear the Palins. I have hope this will change as time goes on and Palin becomes further removed from power. If Parnell isn't elected after serving out the rest of Palins term, that might be all it takes. Also it seems that at least Sarah and Bristol are spending very little in AK now.
I am convinced that a few, Tripp being example know a lot but want to be paid for what they know.Tripp appears to finally understand thats not going to happen. We will see if she starts talking.Who knows who's waiting for the next book deal. There are just two palin sites I trust are acting in good faith.

Conscious at last!

10/13/2011 12:36:51 pm

New comment from MeAgain at IM, but on the recent post about the Tea Party:

Anonymous said...
I am all right. I have not been threatened, silenced, or met my end in a suspect fire.

My father passed earlier this week. I came right back to Washington to help deal with...everything. I'm going to see if I can schedule a flight back on Sunday. I didn't buy a round trip ticket because I wasn't sure how long I'd stay. I keep using it as an excuse to put off planning my departure.

I'm sorry for not posting. I have heard some things in the aftermath of Sarah's "nonouncement" as my source calls it, but nothing that cannot hold.

The truth is I've had TIME to post...I have just been occupying said time with wallowing in self pity about how I feel so "orphaned" now. At over sixty, I know it's silly. Maybe this is the price to be paid for trying to "live young". My father had just over nine decades on this spinning rock...and I guess once he got to a certain age I just thought he'd be here forever. He went in his sleep, no illness or accident...I know he couldn't have suspected because he laid out clothes, watch, shoes, etc for the next day, and made notes about a grocery list for the next day. I think he just...went to sleep...and that was it.

I always thought the loss of my mother thirty years ago would have one silver lining--I'd be prepared for any loss. But I suppose you just cannot prepare for some things.

One grace in the storm--I just recently had a wonderful visit with daddy and we ate great food, laughed at old pictures until we were nearly in tears, and generally just enjoyed each other's company.

He was great. He taught me to speak my mind, not care if the world at large thought me odd for not settling down "with a nice man" and having babies--something my mother literally requested with dying breath. (sorry, mama)
He was just really lovely and sweet, ornery and hilarious...generous with time, love, material wealth, and praise. A survivor of war who was opposed to it every day of his life after watching comrades die in combat. A survivor of my mother, who literally fainted when my father lost a bet and mowed the lawn in underwear and suspenders. A survivor of me, who was an obstinate child who fought him on everything until I realized he would always be the best advocate and friend I'd ever have in this life.

The more I see how someone like Sarah treats her children, the more I realize how truly blessed I am to have had a mother who might have clutched her pearls if you said "the a-s-s word" but who fought for me to have a good life and advantages she went without...and a father who was my solid rock in life, the person who said "way to go, I'm so proud of you" when I smiled...and "tell me who did it, I will bust their a-s-s" when I frowned.

So I am fine, just a little blue. Going through daddy's house is so hard; just today I almost literally fell to my knees in grief because I pulled one of his constant staples, a butterscotch candy, out of his coat pocket...and greedily unwrapped it, breathing in the smell so deeply it made me lightheaded.

If any of you have meant it when you've said you enjoyed my writing or was looking forward to my posts...please take this to heart--don't put off visits, apologies, hugs, vacations...DON'T think there will always be more time. If I hadn't decided to ignore my employer's request to NOT take a vacation as I'd be retiring in a few months...then I would have not seen daddy in almost five years before his death. All the times I could have gone but didn't...it's a knife in my heart right now.

So long for now...I'll be back--maybe a little less quick witted and sharp, but I'll get back to myself. Thanks for listening, all of you who have been so great to me, and even those who haven't. Today everyone gets a "thank you" from me.

-MeAgain

3:17 PM

FrostyAK

10/13/2011 12:40:19 pm

A dissertation on the commonalities and differences between narcissists and psychopaths. Pertinent to our discussions.

http://tinyurl.com/44tr5vj

Venefica

10/13/2011 12:41:24 pm

That video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Usa8hH7sWr4) is intriguing. Lots of intimate family photos, so I suspect it was uploaded by a family member or a faithful lackey. A few things that jumped out at me:

1) The inclusion of several pix (that I'd never seen before) of an apparently very pregnant Bristol. That seems to me to be in direct response to Gryphen's recent posts about the possibility of a hoax with respect to the Tripp pregnancy.

2) In most of the Trig photos, the person holding him is Willow. Could Willow (or someone sympathetic to her) be the uploader? Certainly Bristol was in relatively few of these photos.

3) One picture showed Todd holding Trig, apparently in the Palin's kitchen, with many framed photos nearby. That reminded me of MeAgain's remarks about a "framed photograph, under glass, on a white shelf" in "the Palin's kitchen." MeAgain wrote that the photo was of an infant wearing a "valentine baby shirt, being propped up in a plastic hospital type baby crib." We can't tell from the Todd photo whether MeAgain's photo is there, but this confirms the existence of numerous framed photos in the Palin's kitchen.

Probably the most interesting feature of the video is its upload date. A lot of heat (if not light!) has been generated this week regarding the Tripp and Trig pregnancies. This particular upload seems to be a reaction from the Palin camp.

Ottoline

10/13/2011 12:44:26 pm

Tada -- All v good questions, but they are so far without answers. As I asked you before, do you have any answers?

Miller is a common name. There is so far no connection that anyone has found between Dar and the other Lewis. Except Wasilla. And even if they are third cousins once removed, that does not implicate them or SP in any particular thing. If you know of any real connection, please tell us.

Dar's partner has never been interviewed, has never spoken about Dar's death, to the best of my knowledge. I am inclined to respect her privacy. She knows where the blogs are if she should want to speak. Where Joe McGinniss is, and where others are that she can trust in AK.

Do you feel like taking on any of the questions you pose? It would be terrific if you would.

Viola-Alex

10/13/2011 01:07:47 pm

David E. Lewis did have a sister named Linda Lewis. He died a violent death and was then burned. That was all intriguing enough to have me googling for a bit, Tada. What a terrible, sad crime.

10/13/2011 01:17:48 pm

@Tada, you are the same person who wrote in Palingates about Safari Investments, LLC I presume? It appears you never found anything more about the LLC, beyond the documents you posted then?

I wonder if it is common for someone in an advisory position (an attorney, accountant or private banker) to have such LLCs set up and waiting when a client needs them in short order. I wish I knew an attorney who might know the answer to that.

I am sorry to hear of MeAgain's loss.

Conscious at last!

10/13/2011 01:40:18 pm

Some More Thoughts on the New Palin Video

So, we see Willow is the new star and babyholder. Why? First, oh dear, we cannot have Bristol anywhere near Trig(s)- because then all those haters will think that Trig is Bristol's child. So we'll remove Bristol from most of the photos and focus on sweet pretty Willow and cute Piper... and the all important and adorable Trig.

I sense that there is another, more sinister, attempt at manipulation here. Some of us remember a long brouhaha over at PD because a certain commenter INSISTED that Willow was actually the mother of Trig. Most of us were quite clear that this was nonsense.
Also, too, it made the bloggers look silly. Well, I suspect that this is a not too subtle attempt to stir that up again--with Willow being with Trig so much.
NAH- ain't gonna happen. (oh, by the way, I sure hope that Willow is not brainwashed into plastic surgery as Bristol was. Willow is lovely and Bristol WAS too.)

I think this video was created by some pretty adept folks who are still milkin' the Grifter Express Cash Cow.

We also have Todd present and accounted for-- so obviously those hateful rumors about a divorce must be false. Moreover these folks look so happy to be together, so relaxed-- wow, I'd just LOVE to meet them and hang out with them!! The Palins are a cool, close family!!

Yeah- that's the ticket.

Viola-Alex

10/13/2011 02:02:42 pm

That video gives me the willies. If I didn't know these people, I'd think they were a pretty special family. All the smiles and happy times. Poor Bristol. Edited out. Who are those weird people, Mr. Handlebar Moustache and his Blonde Wife. They get 2 photos! Must be special!

Contrast all those smiles with this classic shot at the GoRed luncheon.

http://tinyurl.com/3t8n83d

(oh, and the photo of Piper clutching at Sarah's rear end. That's a tearjerker.)

Tada

10/13/2011 02:29:32 pm

@Ottoline: I attempt to ask legitimate questions that should be looked into.

@Viola-Alex: I have no connection or knowledge to any of this other than doing my own reading and trying to make sense of it all.

@Up: I was indeed the one who wrote about Safari Investments LLC on Palingates a while back. I am not a professional investigator, but based on my limited research I'm convinced Palin was involved with Safari Investments LLC prior to the purchase of her mansion in Arizona this year. The company was first incorporated in 1996. The registration then lapsed. It was incorporated again in 2004. The registration then lapsed. It was then incorporated again by Palin in 2011 a few days before she used it to purchase the mansion in Arizona. The Delaware Agent used by Palin to incorporate the company this year is the same Agent that was used in the prior incorporation of this company name. Regina at Palingates paid a fee to the Delaware government office to get a copy of the incorporation papers, which she has posted copies of. Again, I'm not a professional investigator so I can't take this any further, but I had hoped a professional investigator would find this worth pursuing. In addition to posting on Palingates and IM, I also alerted Joe McGinniss and had hoped he would do an investigation into it prior to finishing his book. It may have been too late. He never responded to my e-mail. Remember, we were not supposed to know about Safari Investments LLC at all. The only reason we know about Safari Investments LLC is because someone spotted the Palins at the mansion in Arizona and a local news channel investigated and found out the mansion had just been purchased for almost $1.7 million by Safari Investments LLC, which $P then admitted was owned by her. Look at the timeline; first incorporated in 1996, then lapsed, then incorporated in 2004, then lapsed, then incorporated by $P in 2011. If $P incorporated this company for the first time in 2011 for the sole purpose of buying the mansion in Arizona - what are the odds she would call this company Safari Investments LLC? Not likely at all. Back in the 1990s however, it would make sense for her to incorporate a company with that name; think of her connection to Safari Club International, think of her real estate purchases in Safari Lake, think of her 'promotion' of Corey Rossi - the owner of Great Northern Safari Company...

I am convinced that $P maintained bank account(s) for Safari Investments LLC since 1996. She probably forgot to pay the annual filing fees and that's the reason why the registration lapsed. Then in 2004, something happened that necessitated her showing proof of registration so she "re-instated" the company again. Then she did not bother paying the annual filing fees again and the registration lapsed. Then in April/May this year she needed to "re-instate"/incorporate the company again in order to close the purchase of the mansion in Arizona. The registration of the company took place the day before she wired the money to close the deal on the mansion. She did not need to set up a new bank account as she had been maintaining the bank account since 1996...

All we need is to find someone who knows where Safari Investments LLC does its banking and find a "whistle-blower" within that bank that can confirm the account was in existence prior to May 2011. Or maybe there's a bank register where one can search for companies' bank accounts? Not easy I know, but not impossible for a seasoned investigative reporter - if there are anyone left...

nenagh

10/13/2011 03:10:45 pm

Those videos...in every frame a beautiful smiling Sarah surrounded by her photogenic family and the love shines through.

Image after image cascading past the mind's eye forms a nearly subliminal message. This is a wonderful family and Sarah is healthy, strong and beautiful.

Our minds become receptive as the dreamy melodies calm and captivate our senses and we know this is a special woman adored by her family and she is just about perfection and very, very sane!

The Palin's are a family that cherishes each other in so many images and the star, North Star...she is nearly biblical in her perfection.

And so svelte, maybe she only nibbles on ancient grains and sunbeams, perhaps a qumquat or two. Memorable lady, divine family.

And how the people respond to her. How could they not respond to such grace and charm?

What a great job of videopersuasion.

Banyan

10/13/2011 03:34:56 pm

@ Tada

You are on to something important -- something that reached back all the way to the mid-1990s.

SunnyVee

10/13/2011 04:08:28 pm

oh...whoops.
Have I committed a Troll-paux, now?

(I must be so judgemental and jealous of this nice family.)

ha ha ha ha ha.
you are just sore that we did not fall for your youtube videos...and because you still work for the Idiot Queen.

Peace.

Beaglemom

10/13/2011 10:17:42 pm

"Allison" at "thepalinplace.blogspot.com" has a well though-out and comprehensive analysis of Levi's book (amazing; I'd never be able to get through it) and she finds hints about a lot of pertinent questions in it. Also today she has a post about Levi's sister. One intriguing aspect of the whole Johnston matter: why did the McCain campaign bother to cleanse (?) their computer?

Exp:Nov.05/08

10/13/2011 10:37:08 pm

I give up.

Rubbernecking, I thought in one of your comments you asked what *anyone* would do if they were Sarah and those rumours about Bristol were going around. That's why I threw my opinion out there. I'm sorry if the question was only directed at one commenter.

I think what we have here is a failure to communicate because I'm scratching my head as well.

2. You challenge "there's no proof" for Bristol's unhappiness with pregnancy rumors. [12 Oct 2011 09:44:56]

3. I offer proof of Bristol's unhappiness from emails and memoirs. [12 Oct 2011 10:19:15]

4. You say my proof is hearsay and we should consider your theories instead. [12 Oct 2011 11:02:09]

5. I agree that my evidence is hearsay but ask what evidence you have for your theories. [12 Oct 2011 10:19:15]

6. You complain I am establishing a too high bar for evidence and everyone should be free to speculate. [13 Oct 2011 05:59:43]

All I'm asking is that you apply the same standards to yourself that you apply to me.

This seems all way too personal. I'm not here to argue with anyone. This is a conversation full of guesses based on limited information provided by people engaged in a massive cover-up. I've been listening to this conversation for three years, and thought I'd add to it. It doesn't seem to be going so well. I didn't think I needed solid evidence to offer my thoughts. I'm not a lawyer. I apologize for being long-winded in my last response but I wanted to address your questions.
At this point, I feel like the follow-up questions you've asked me are diverting the conversation full of guesses toward something more personal. You seem to be asking me to prove that my opinions are more valid than yours, or based on something more tangible. I can't. You have more evidence, Rubbernecking, more than me. I can't prove a goddamned thing or back anything I'm saying up with evidence.

If that's what's required of me to comment, or if I sound like an idiot without any, I'll stop.
I feel challenged to prove something that I can't.

I'll stay and keep reading.

Viola-Alex

10/13/2011 11:28:32 pm

RE: Dar Miller and David E Lewis

More coincidence. Dar lived in Oregon and worked as a neonatal nurse for 15 years. Her longtime partner was an Oregon native. David Lewis lived in Oregon and his sister, an AK dance instructor, wrote angry but concerned emails to Sarah Palin about AK foster care. Both Dar and David died in violent fires.

Of course, there is NO real connection other than Alaska and Oregon ties. But a coincidence nonetheless.

I'd never read Dar's obit before, but it is full of relatives' names in Canada. Wouldn't it be possible for a professional journalist to write a sensitive letter asking if the family have any doubts about Dar's death?

If a loved one of mine died in an unsolved crime, I think I'd welcome any questions and expressed concerns three years later.

At least it would put the damn rumors to bed.

And finally, Tada, I was so fascinated by the Palingates story on Safari that I was the one who got the screen grabs for Regina. She couldn't purchase the info from where she lived, so I did it.

Is there anything about Sarah Palin that isn't sorted, nasty, or frightening?

@Exp: As for Rubbernecking. He/she is annoying as hell. I simply stopped responding to him/her. However, somebody sometimes has to ask hard questions, and Rubber has been around a long time. Like Frosty, who can be cranky at times, I just keep a healthy distance and an open mind.

jeff

10/13/2011 11:37:09 pm

@Exp:Nov.05/08,

Sarah is long past her "freshness date". She's off the regular sales shelf now, but we still need to get her moved from the bargain basket to the dumpster outside. Because she stinks. And leaks (per Levi, anyway... glad I can't confirm firsthand). Besides, she's no bargain if she's free or even if you're paid to take her home.

So keep at it and stay with us.

lilly lily

10/14/2011 12:02:29 am

I think Rubbernecking is either a contrarian or a secret admirer and apologist for Palin. Trying to sow doubts and create issues to derail.

That is gut instinct talking.

It isn't needling and sowing doubt, it goes a tad beyond that.

lilly lily

10/14/2011 12:33:32 am

As far as Sarah Palin, I so want her out of the mix. She won't go away till she is carbonized. Dust to dust.

The American media is locked into Hotel California with a female psycho. And as long as they keep Sarah Palin alive in the political mix to promote her nonsense the bloggers have to keep plugging away at unmasking her.

Viola-Alex

10/14/2011 12:38:50 am

@Frosty. I shouldn't have lumped you in with rubbernecking. You're much nicer, and clearly on our side, even when you're contrary. I apologize.

Tom link

10/14/2011 12:55:53 am

Could Safari have been a 'shelf' company that was bought by SP?

Original Lee

10/14/2011 12:57:57 am

Something that occurred to me this morning (somewhat tangental to the current discussion) when I was thinking about Ruffles, Trig, and premature births. Namely: if Ruffles is a Palin baby, born prematurely and medically fragile, why did Sarah Palin strive to hide his existence?

On the face of it, I would think that he would be even more proof that she "walked the walk," regardless of whether the baby was hers or Bristol's. There doesn't seem to have been a lot of blowback from her base about Bristol's teen pregnancy, so I think she could have spun it in a way, even back then, that could have won her Grizzly points.

I think the problem with Ruffles was that he was so fragile. I think that if people had known about Ruffles, Sarah Palin's name would have been dropped from consideration like a hot potato, because you just don't ask people to do something as strenuous as run for VP when they have such a huge family responsibility. I think that the advantage of Trig is that he was just special needs enough - Downs can happen to anyone and a lot of Downs fetuses are aborted - but he was physically robust enough that having Trig as her baby underlined and enhanced her tough Christian frontier momma creds. I don't think she really considered the long-term - that if she were at the Naval Observatory or in the White House, Trig would have to be around a lot and she would actually have to act like a mother sometimes. I'm sure she just assumed somebody else would take care of him.

On a related aspect, I think that Sarah Palin was ambitious enough and channeled the Zeitgeist well enough to have hit on the idea that having a baby (#5) while in office would make her stand out from the other conservative politicians and catch the eye of a national-level political handler. I suspect that it was something she had on the back burner and snatched the opportunity to make use of the minute she had some circumstances going her way. If she hadn't been so far off the deep end mentally, she could have swung it and we wouldn't be here now.

I wish we were in the final stages of a Clue game, so that I could say, "I suspect Bristol had Ruffles in February in Anchorage. I suspect Sarah arranged the coverup not because she was hiding a teen pregnancy but because she needed Trig to be the baby - the fake pregnancy was just the fallout from Bristol refusing to play ball with Sarah's original plan. And I suspect Trig was acquired via CBJ somehow and they weren't too picky about how old he actually was because they were sure they could spin the details."

And in typical Sarah fashion, the original plan was half-baked but fixed by her enablers, which is why there are so many layers to the coverup.

lilly lily

10/14/2011 02:49:00 am

Palin is careless. The coverup was in layers. First Palin did her usual. Bluff, threaten, play victim. She used her whole arsenal.

Threaten the newspaper and shut them up. Spineless press, how to manipulate the press in a state that is large in size, poor in press coverage, and the population is small, uninformed. While the government is riddled with corruption.

Ridicule anyone who questioned and they sure questioned the farce. "Hey ya want to feel my baby bump, here" and up goes the shirt, not to reveal flesh but another layer of clothing. Don't care if my daughter is Valley trash. Hell the slut says she is a slut, and I'll parade her and her stomach whenever I want, including padded, but don't you dare say anything, question anything.

"God has told me I'll be president, and I'll break down any door and plow right through because I have no shame, and I can fight as dirty if not dirtier than any man will, though I'm still the beautiful victim if it goes bad. Double standard here. I can scream victim, but you can't."

Over the top thought. If she could persuade Levi that she was pregnant with his baby? There is no logical explaination for his being in her hospital room to observe her immediatly after supposedly birthing a baby. It was a set up for him and him alone as well as pushing Trig as her fundi creds.

Kill two birds with one stone.

And of course the McCain camp went out there erasing and covering up in a black bag routine cleanup.

The press chickened out from the get go, except for Andrew Sullivan and the bloggers.

Her puppet masters really set things up for her to rake in the dollars because she had charisma, and the stupid asses thought she could be handled.

lilly lily

10/14/2011 03:29:19 am

the Ming dynesty collapsed because the peasant bore the burdens of taxation. Those that had the least and worked the hardest were fleeced, while more and more of the rich were excused from any taxation whatsoever. The postal service collapsed, and the entire overburdened system collapsed. The men who formerly manned the country communications became bandits. The country fell into chaos and mass starvation.

I don't know what is happening out there but the greedy have pushed the system to their advantage too long.

I'm not sure what is happening. I don't think anyone will know until this has played itself out and the sh*t has hit the fan. Will it collapse once winter is here? Or go underground?

A third party is beginning, gathering signitures called "Americas Elect." I wouldn't be at all surprised if Sarah Palin was in on this if it comes to fruition.

Not on the 99% movement.

But she will hop aboard anything if she sees something in it for her.

Just as she did with the Tea Party.

lilly lily

10/14/2011 03:48:51 am

Our country at present reminds me of the Ming Dynasty and the multiple problems which led to the collapse of one of the most prosperous and stable of systems in the history of the world.

Of course weather, viruses, and outside forces had their role in its collapse. Plus their leaders retreated into seclusion and could only be reached by bribes to eunachs who surrounded the Emperor.

Our own government is hamstrung by the Republicans for reasons of their own selfish ends while the economy declines. We are in gridlock. Obama seems to be retreating into himself.

The struggle is too intense. Self interests prevail. No wonder this movement has emerged.

Like everyone else, I'm trying to make some sense of it all.

I don't want an opportunistic and ignorant woman like Palin to promote herself any further.

So I'll keep saying the same things over and over, while at the same time enjoying my own life to the fullest.

Viola-Alex

10/14/2011 03:57:53 am

@Tom - Regina of Palingates did a few posts on the Safari connection, and all appeared legal. However, she admitted (if I remember) that it would take someone with financial knowledge to explain the system, and of course, unravel what's really there-- but Delaware LLC's are a big business because of their secrecy and ease of procuring.

tesha

10/14/2011 04:07:37 am

Great post by Allison at http://thepalinplace.blogspot.com/2011/10/allisons-own-thoughts-on-palin-johnston.html

Brad Scharlott

10/14/2011 04:12:50 am

Exp:Nov.05/08: You've hit the nail on the head re Rubbernecking for me too. She's SO disputatious that I offend scratch my head and wonder what the hell is going on. And it's usually in the direction of undermining ideas people put forward, and to a degree I often find disingenuous. I simply don't know what her reason for being her is, and after such behavior for so long, I'm not willing to think she simply likes playing devil advocate.

Laura would like us all to be civil here, so all I will add is this: the energy many of us have burnt up trying to answer RB's ceaseless and tendentious questions might more more profitably be put in other activities.

mary

10/14/2011 04:18:04 am

Regarding the video that some are discussing, the one picture that jumps out at me is the one of Cindy and John McCain and Sarah. I have never seen that picture and I think it's from when Palin went to McCain's ranch in AZ to meet with him and then he decided to ask her to be his running mate, especially since the photos seem to be in chronological order and the next one is from the rally at which she was introduced. So, who posted this? It would seem that it was a campaign staffer or possibly Todd (or anyone that Todd gave the photo to use in this manner).

Viola-Alex

10/14/2011 04:34:33 am

Thanks, Tesha! Allison's post is great. Brad, you'll enjoy this Trig hoax scenario, as will the rest of you. I find it quite persuasive. But then, I'm a MOMcommenter (constant encourager) not a Devil's Advocate.

http://thepalinplace.blogspot.com/2011/10/allisons-own-thoughts-on-palin-johnston.html

Freddy el Desfibradddor

10/14/2011 04:36:40 am

this photos with sound track video seems to me to be aimed at the feelings of disappointed palinistas. they can't campaign for sarah right now, but they can imagine themselves as honorary members of her strong, happy family. so mollified, they'll make another monetary donation someday.

mary

10/14/2011 04:42:46 am

Having watched the whole video, there are many "candids" that only a member of the Palin family or "entourage" member would have. Weird. Feeling nostalgic, are they? Was more fun on the way up than on the way down, I'm sure!

lilly lily

10/14/2011 05:16:40 am

Interesting video of a photogenic family who adore the camera.

If the family smiles make her bots happy, why not indulge them. Everyone like to see happy people. Kiddies and kittens are always great Hallmark cards.

Sarah Palin is very pleased with herself and her photogenic family.

It translates into money sent to her by her admiring following.

lilly lily

10/14/2011 06:35:07 am

The Wall street movement could be jumping into Europe.

I see they are going to demonstrate in Stockholm, which has many of the benefits that the protesters are interested in implementing. Solidarity.

I am sitting back right now and simply observing. The last thing I would do is go into NYC. this could turn ugly.. So far it is only a demand for the 1% to pony up to their responsibilites.

the Koch Bros and Murdochs of the day are being called on their excessive greed.

Palin was one of their well paid puppets. She is quiet. Probably wants to see how she should jump for her best advantage.

5 Reforms for Wall Street - Taibbi

10/14/2011 06:48:00 am

Matt Taibbi Suggests 5 Reforms for Wall Street

These are, briefly:

1. Break up the monopolies - The so-called "Too Big to Fail" financial companies – now sometimes called by the more accurate term "Systemically Dangerous Institutions"

2. Pay for your own bailouts - A tax of 0.1 percent on all trades of stocks and bonds and a 0.01 percent tax on all trades of derivatives

3. No public money for private lobbying - A company that receives a public bailout should not be allowed to use the taxpayer's own money to lobby against him.

4. Tax hedge-fund gamblers - For starters, we need an immediate repeal of the preposterous and indefensible carried-interest tax break, which allows hedge-fund titans like Stevie Cohen and John Paulson to pay taxes of only 15 percent on their billions in gambling income, while ordinary Americans pay twice that for teaching kids and putting out fires.

5. Change the way bankers get paid - We need new laws preventing Wall Street executives from getting bonuses upfront for deals that might blow up in all of our faces later.

Read the whole article at

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/my-advice-to-the-occupy-wall-street-protesters-20111012

FrostyAK

10/14/2011 07:00:06 am

Read Allison's blog, and I THANK her for reading a book I just could not bring myself to read (DITH). I know more than enough about the local community. Sounds as if those wanting to know how it really is here might want to check that one out of the library and do a quick read through.

What she wrote has gotten me thinking. More questions than before reading her ideas. The biggest questions I have are:

Is it possible that TriG is Levi's only son? And that is why Levi has backed off on paternity rights for Tripp?

Where was Bristle during the time she would have had to conceive to accommodate any/all our timelines? Where was Levi at those times?

Then let's take the just official palin timeline. Where was Bristle? Where was Levi? Where was Johnny Chandler? Where were Ben and Gino?

Like I said, more questions with each quasi answer.

search4more

10/14/2011 07:16:09 am

Hi. :-)

Can anyone tell me the name of the person who appears in this video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_tMn7hMrKM

...at 00:48? What's her name and what's her relationship to the Palins?

Also does anyone else see slight marks or notches in Trig's ears in any of the pictures before this point (00:48). I think I can but it's so subtle that I doubt myself. Also the video is of fairly low resolution so it's pretty hard to see. the problem with this whole Palin business is that it's really hard to analyse photographs. It's so easy to doubt yourself because you think you see something and then you check with other people and they just don't see the same thing. "Lies, damn lies and statistics"....and I guess it should also be "lies, damn lies and photographs".

I can see why some people are saying it's a Palin insider that posted it. I'm not sure if that is the case though. If anyone cares about it, just go on over to Politicalgates and see what they were saying about it. They will know if the poster is a regular poster or not.

...Also I mentioned the videos on this post first. I didn't claim they were a big deal. I just said they were interesting. The 2 videos have 138 and 364 views so far. Hardly earth shattering numbers. If any Palin wanted people to see them they could certainly drum up more views than that.

peggy

10/14/2011 07:24:04 am

Hi FrostyAK - Here is what I see regarding Tripp, Levi & Mercede on Mercede's facebook.

The Johnston's DO seem to get visitation, although visits are few and far between. When the visits happen, Sadie posts lots of pics (clearly Tripp).

They are preparing to have Tripp on or near Halloween, and they are decorating up a storm for him. Maybe a payoff for Levi's cooperation (via "Deer In the Headlights") with SP's birth story?

I think Bristol continues to keep Levi in line by making visitation difficult unless he toes the line. JMO, but I have no doubt that the Johnston's love Tripp and totally believe he is Levi's child.

I am posting as "peggy" because I am a bit reluctant to post info from Mercede's facebook. That said, there is much evidence there of Tripp as her nephew and as Levi's son.

Dis Gusted

10/14/2011 08:30:40 am

a bit of detail re: the Christys

http://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2011/05/10/family-affair-deranged-palin-stalker-admits-rape-threats-parents-in-on-the-plan/

the ex-state trooper's name is Claude Kilpatrick - he has since left AK and now lives in AZ where he runs a NPO called "Matter of Trust".

The youtube where Sally Heath tells Shawn to call her anytime has been taken down.

Dick Cheney shared his thoughts on the Laura Ingraham show http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CWQ4afH-cu8#!

Karl Rove expressed his views on FOX
August 24th.

In an immediate response, SarahPAC said,
"Any professional pundit claiming to have 'inside information' regarding Governor Palin's personal decision is not only wrong but their comments are specifically intended to mislead the American public."

Dis Gusted

10/14/2011 08:46:32 am

lastly - all of the Christy's FB pages are gone - but once upon a time, the text messages were there. Of course, SP mentions Willow as being the subject of 'rape'. That's her MO.

IM may still has copies of some of the FB posts
here: April 14, 2011
http://theimmoralminority.blogspot.com/2011/04/shawn-christy-responds-to-charges-that.html

and here: August 21, 2011

http://theimmoralminority.blogspot.com/2011/08/arrest-of-shawn-christy-was-fbi.html

you may note that the case where the two christys are arrested do not involve the Palins. They are a response to the threatening voice mails left to the attorney.

We may never know the truth about this case.

mary

10/14/2011 11:30:05 am

That happy happy Palins You Tube has gone to black. Same for the other Palin video created by the same person. Wonder why.

FrostyAK

10/14/2011 11:35:56 am

@ mary - the vids are gone? That's why I said it should be downloaded.

Venefica

10/14/2011 11:44:47 am

I came across this review of Bristol's "memoir" via another blog today: "The Alaska-raised author writes about how she lost her virginity, how she hid her pregnancy during the McCain-Palin campaign...."
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/ae/articles/2011/07/01/20110701bristol-palin-talks-about-new-book-phoenix.html

She hid her pregnancy during the McCain-Palin campaign!? WTF is that about?

curiouser

10/14/2011 12:08:37 pm

mary and FrostyAK - The vids are still there.

http://www.youtube.com/user/SarahPalin1982#p/a/u/0/Usa8hH7sWr4

mary

10/14/2011 12:36:02 pm

@curiouser, they just load to blank screens for me.

No loss to the general culture, but very strange. I still think that an "insider" made that video. Too many candids.

mary

10/14/2011 12:39:01 pm

LOL, I just realized that nothing is working for me on You Tube! Sorry, tin foil hat - off!

10/14/2011 01:19:02 pm

Original Lee, I've wondered the same thing. If I had to bet money, my bet would be that Ruffles was more than just fragile -- that he in fact was not expected to survive beyond infancy. I have not seen a single photo that is clearly Ruffles in which he/she looks alert, or shows any sign of decent muscle tone. Not one. Blue-sweater Trig, in contrast, was holding his head up, alert and awake, at a clearly young age. anon432 told us that the family was told that Ruffles (the "original Trig") could have a host of severe medical problems.
If Ruffles was extremely fragile, one might still wonder why Palin didn't simply present/claim him? It would have been quite a card to play: "choosing life," welcoming a child with open arms, losing him in infancy. The 'bots would have put her up for sainthood. But maybe there was too big a chance that he would die before Palin had a chance to "give birth to him"? Or maybe Bristol put her foot down about the prospect of her fragile infant being paraded in front of the world?
Or maybe it was likely to come out that Ruffles' problems & prematurity were in part a consequence of Bristol's drug/alochol abuse? This would help explain her desperate eagerness to have a baby again soon. Guilt is one heck of a motivator.

DarkEFang

10/14/2011 01:19:37 pm

Regarding Rubbernecking:

Every crowdsource situation needs someone who will shit the pool. People shouldn't spend all their time on Rubbernecking's questions, but they need to keep them in mind when trying to work through this stuff. Without skeptics questioning everything, you risk overlooking problems with your arguments.

Let's face it, the first time anyone gets a chance to present babygate to a wide audience will be the first. If there isn't an immediate and convincing answer to any question that might be asked, nobody will get a second chance.

10/14/2011 01:34:03 pm

On the central question raised by the post, I've been meaning to add that I agree, the number of people who know the whole truth could be very small. I do think a lot of people must know bits of the truth: where Ruffles ended up, where RNC Trig came from, where a Tripp stand-in came from, if the Original Tripp was indeed older than claimed. One danger, though, is that some people might also think they know the truth, when in fact they were fed a story of partial truths or worse. For example, would we put it past Palin to lead a few close insiders to believe that secrets had to be kept because of a deep dark secret regarding Trig's paternity (incest? Keith Johnston?) when in fact the real truth had more to do with machinations motivated by her ambitions? What better way to get people to clam up than to convince them that the truth would be too terribly damaging to "the innocents"?

Banyan

10/14/2011 03:03:23 pm

@jk

The problem with a "preemie" as a Right-to-Life prop is that there are (in all but a few extreme cases) no decisions to be made in pregnancies that end prematurely regarding abortion. In the few cases where abortion might be considered, the mom would have to have been hospitalized in preterm labor or other complications in a high risk center, usually for a good deal of time. Sarah didn't have that time.

To be useful to her, Sarah needed a PRENATALLY diagnosed problem that would present her with a 'CHOICE." (The same choice she would deny others)

There are really only two candidates for this type of R-T-L"prop:" Down Syndrome and Spina Bifida. (There area few others but no one outside the medical profession has generally heard of them.)

And that is also the problem with Spina Bifida: the public is not all that aware of it, and R-T-L parents who find out that they are carrying a Spina Bifida fetus usually opt for prenatal surgery (very high risk, high drama and costly) which, of course, Sarah -- not being pregnant -- could not easily have faked.

DS was, by default, the obvious candidate for her "prenatal choice."

A preemie (no matter how damaged the baby ultimately proved to be-- and it is hard too tell in the beginning) would not have presented with the same emotional, visual, and ideologic appeal.

Plus, no real preemie, because of severe health constraints, could have been paraded around the country for political purposes as Tri-G was.

Ottoline

10/14/2011 03:10:13 pm

Regarding rubbernecking: I would not characterize r's posts as "shit the pool." I am not annoyed by the comments. I don't understand why others are. I too have followed this story almost as long as anyone, and I just re-read r's comments on this post.

For example, I've always believed in some connection of the SP story to Dar's death, but the points to the contrary that r made are well taken. That doesn't make my intuition go away, but it helps me remember that intuition is a frail reed to lean on. We need much more, or we should back-burner it lest skeptics find us ridiculous and throw out our valid conclusions along with the wide-ranging creative thinking fantasy speculation that we do, and that has its place, but that we must remember won't fly v far in our next "3-min elevator discussion" with some non-believer.

As everyone who describes blogs notes (McGinniss's comments in his book are the most recent I've read), bloggers preach to the choir. Rarely does a regular commenter appear who has different views. We don't have to agree with a dissenter, but geez let's not chase him/her off! A dissenter is GOLD! It's a chance to get a truly different view, esp if we can go back and forth a couple of times.

I don't see r's comments as cranky or negative. They are good points. We don't have to agree with them to recognise that they are what a reasonable person might ask.

I've been reviled from time to time for disagreeing on a blog, called trollish, and it sure makes one want to just go away. But to reach our goal, we need legit dissenters who will challenge our assumptions and even our facts, so we develop and refine air-tight answers, as DarkEFang says, above.

Ottoline

10/14/2011 03:24:59 pm

jk and Banyan -- I agree and was just thinking about those very points. How did colleagues of SP who saw with their own eyes that she was not pg square that in their minds with the party line (that SP was pg)? And my thinking was that such a person would not have the whole story, would clearly know that s/he did not have the whole story, and would not want to openly know the whole story because s/he is used to the corruption in AK and know why it's best to look the other way, to maintain credible deniability. What people privately said to each other, to trusted friends, might have resembled our discussions on these blogs.

And Banyan, your RTL logic for DS as the perfect baby for prop purposes also makes sense. As we learn more, it's hard for me to imagine that SP and a trusted RW fundie RTL mentor of hers had NOT discussed this issue. In the same way that SP brought the pregnancy issue up to to Bailey, only the mentor would have discussed it at length with her, the pros and cons.

Again, our intuition. No proof. But worth discussing IMO.

FrostyAK

10/14/2011 04:31:14 pm

@Otto - I think you have brought up a very valid point. Not sure it has surfaced before, but it is new to me.

People who were well aware of the corruption in AK, and of the machinations of $P, may not have wanted to know the whole truth about anything. In $P's sphere while she was playing at being gov, knowing only what you were told to know kept peoples' jobs. Questioning the Red Queen was an automatic "Off with her head".

Ottoline

10/14/2011 05:36:21 pm

The question that started this post, "what are the odds, . . ." makes some assumptions, one of which is "people around a hoax will automatically be eager to see it exposed, and will individually act to expose it."

But let's imagine your boss is stealing, and it's obvious to you, but you don't know who else knows. You know you will majorly rock the boat if you speak up, and that the whole company is a little crooked. And that the stealing boss has some strong higher=ups as supporters. And you need the job.

10/14/2011 11:41:50 pm

Ottoline, amen to that! I had a boss who was a NPD Queen: head of a small office, committing MASSIVE fraud with her work hours for years, along with other improprieties. The rules just didn't apply to her. Through one year she was out half the time dealing with one of her own family dramas, and did not take an hour of leave. Everyone in the local office knew the score but she had dazzled the higher ups in the organization, and had their support. I made a few attempts to hold this person accountable when I was in a position to do so. I paid for it big time, and learned not to rock the boat in big ways. Every year people in organizations like mine have to take training to learn about whistleblower protections. What a f*cking joke. And this was a much, much smaller scale than Palin's stage, and ambitions.

10/15/2011 12:05:03 am

Banyan, good points! Are you convinced that Ruffles did not have DS? I agree that it would be the granddaddy of all coincidences for Bristol to have had a DS baby -- but the statistical arguments against it don't sway me, low probability events do happen. Dark conspiracies underwritten by deep-pocket nutcase supporters also happen ;) . In any case it seems to me there is good evidence that Ruffles was DS: the pronouncement of Laura's friend doc, and the appearance of the baby in Bailey's book.

Tom link

10/15/2011 01:24:02 am

@Ottoline, jk--

I've learned over the years that often not only will the truth not set you free, it'll put you in a deep, dark hole.

Even in daily life others will take advantage of someone who almost alweays tells the truth. It;s a very unfair playing field. The harmed truth teller's recourse is some sort of spiritual satisfaction, not somethi ng I'm in line with, or a sense of smug self-satisfaction (which doesn't pay well).

Liars have the advantage.

Banyan

10/15/2011 02:32:51 am

@jk

No, I'm not sure that Ruffles did not have DS. I just don't see obvious signs of in these pictures, at least they are not obvious to me.

lilly lily

10/15/2011 03:47:38 am

As far as Christy and father. Palin wants to do a pre-emptive strike. Wants another protective order.

Right now they are in jail awaiting a court date.

For some reason she is really afraid of these two. Odd. I thought she was grizzly mom. Something is strange here and what got me thinking it is was the video with Sally Heath asking the Christy boy to call them and talk things over. I watched it a number of times because it was so strange.

They are frightened enough to keep loaded guns, but before the father was nabbed for bothering the lawyers they wanted him to call?

Very strange.

I am relieved they are out of the news cycles to a degree. Even Huffington has abandoned Sarah Palin.

We will have to worry in 2016, but right now Romney has it all but sewed up, and the fundis can do squat.

lilly llily

10/15/2011 05:42:40 am

The Occupy Wall Street movement has gone viral world wide.

Massive crowds to march in Madrid. It turned violent in Rome. 4,000 in Berlin. 5,000 in Frankfurt. a show of people in Canada, Japan, the Phillipines.

They are calling for an end to Capitalism.

Greed is not good.

This is a turning point in our history.

10/15/2011 06:01:05 am

Tom, I will not argue with that. Powerful forces incubate and propagate and profit from a web of lies & illusions, and do not respond kindly to those who dare voice inconvenient truths. Successful political animals, in politics but also any organization, make themselves a home within the web. There are always degrees to dishonesty. Obama is not Palin; Clinton is not Dubya; Bush Sr. is not Shrub. The scientist who is a total charlatan is not the "careerist" scientist who steers his research away from sacred cows held dear by vested interests. But you're right, I think: complete honesty does not go over well. Anywhere. Ever.

10/15/2011 06:06:10 am

Banyan, have you seen the photos in Bailey's book? Those are the ones that convince me that 1) Ruffles was not simply borrowed a couple of times early on, and 2) he/she had DS. They also fuel my believe that Ruffles had severe medical/developmental issues. It's possible that he/she was simply asleep in both photos, but my spidey sense says otherwise.

Banyan

10/15/2011 10:00:08 am

@jk

I'll take a closer look at those pictures in Bailey's book.

I doubt that Ruffles was ever "borrowed," but I would like to know where s/he has been disappeared to. I don't think Ruffles could ever have been the RNC
Tri-G.

Original Lee

10/15/2011 03:09:43 pm

Banyan, jk, and Ottoline - I agree about the choice part. DS is better than spina bifida in part because it's better known, and in part because it's nobody's fault - it just happens, and it can happen to anyone. IIRC, spina bifida is associated with lack or low levels of an essential nutrient in the early weeks of pregnancy (blanking on it right now and my internet is acting up so I can't look it up). So from a woman's POV, DS is the "no blame" birth defect. So "no blame" birth defect, choice against abortion, and physically more robust baby = triple play for $P.

Ivyfree

10/15/2011 04:01:04 pm

"For some reason she is really afraid of these two."

This really makes me curious- because you're right, she's acting like she takes them very seriously as a threat. What is the point of another protecting order when they are sitting in jail?

Isn't their story that Willow was sexting with their son?

If this wound up in court, would this sound credible? Would Willow be able to take the stand and support a false story? She turns 18 next July- can she be subpoenaed and required to testify before she is 18?

Would Willow be reliable enough to deny the story and stick with a previously arranged false story? Or maybe she really wasn't sexting with him. Or maybe she wasn't the one who was sexting, but she knows who was.

I have to admit: when I first heard the story of the sexting, I thought they meant Sarah was doing it. And part of me still wonders that, because Sarah uses sex as a means to an end. It wouldn't surprise me if she was sexting as a means of reassuring herself that she still "has it."

Willow has seen her elder sister party hard, drinking and drugging, and have a minimum of one out-of-wedlock pregnancy. Because of this, her sister has earned a lot of money and public attention. I suspect that the attention means a lot in a family where Mom pays no attention to anyone but herself. It would be pretty easy for Willow to want some of the action, and what's the best way to get money out of Mom? Gee, mom- I wasn't sexting him, but I know who was!

It's difficult to evaluate the situation. None of them tell the truth. All of them are out for what they can get. They're all incredibly defensive and mean. So while I usually assume that people are doing the best they can- most people are, after all- I have to assume that these Palins will always take the low road.

Would Willow be likely to threaten her Mom about sexting? Would it work? Would it work if it was true, or if it wasn't?

rubbernecking

10/15/2011 08:40:48 pm

For those convinced I'm derailing the investigation, no worries. This is the ONLY site in the 3+ yrs of babygate where I've EVER posted a question or comment. My influence was very small, and very short-lived.

There's no shortage of things to complain about Palin, but I really hate how she avoids questions and facts. All her crying about "gotchas" and bias makes her look so weak. It's not a style I'd want to imitate.

Good luck.

Ottoline

10/16/2011 12:51:30 am

I value your comments, rubbernecking. You influenced ME -- toward remembering to be more rigorous. That's important.

lilly lily

10/16/2011 03:23:52 am

I've all but washed my hands of her as to posting on any but the smallest of sites. I'm trying to retreat from the internet to live my own life.

It was mostly frustrating to know that the main stream media was giving her a pass.

The only reason that I kept posting was to put one more voice out there.

But I will read here with great interest.

We may not have gotten the main stream media to notice any of us, but the Palins sure did notice, as well as their bots.

If we got under their skin, even a bit, well hallelujah.

curiouser

10/16/2011 04:58:40 am

@rubbernecking - That sounded like 'goodbye'. I hope I'm misinterpreting. I've benefited from your contribution a great deal. It's baffling that some react to questioning, citing existing evidence, and voicing a different opinion as feeling derailed. We will lose a strong, grounding influence if rubbernecking leaves.

Banyan

10/16/2011 05:05:50 am

@jk

I've looked at the Trig pictures in the Bailey book and cannot reconcile them with the Ruffles pictures that were supposedly taken in May 2008, same as the Trig pictures. The ears (both of them) are visible in the Bailey pictures and they have miraculously transformed in a matter of days?!?

Also the Bailey Trig looks far more robust and chubby than Ruffles -- again a weight gain like that in a matter of days?!?

I simply don't know what is going on here.

Ottoline

10/16/2011 07:14:56 am

curiouser -- good to hear your view of rubbernecking. I agree 100%.

I would not care about the several-baby-switcheroo one bit if SP hadn't hoaxed the pregnancy AND used that as her brand. If she had faked it and left her family matters and personalities in the background, I would not care about any of it, either. To me, it would be taking care of (family) business and moving on.

So I have little interest in trying to figure out all the details of the hoax, unless we really have to do it to get the hoax exposed and recognised, along with its high-level enablers.

I have a last gasp of hope that Fred's book and more interviews like the last very good radio McGinniss interview will yield acknowledgment of the hoax. If it doesn't, it's prob over in terms of trying to bring this into the light. Mainly because of the high-up media blackout that nothing has managed to break through.

I sure hope that if Fred really has something to add, that s/he doesn't arrive on the scene too late, which I think it will be in about 10 more minutes.

Emily Pollifax

10/16/2011 07:59:14 am

I think, there is another person who knows the truth and that person is Sarah's sister, Molly. Reportedly Molly leaked the info to Wooten regarding Track's biological father.

Molly, the underemployed dental hygienist, has a son who is a Freshman at Marquette University.
2011–12 UNDERGRADUATE TUITION AND COSTS (PER YEAR)

Undergraduate tuition — $31,400
Typical room and board — $10,370
Fees — $422
For more information, go to Marquette Central.

My guess, is Sarah is paying for Payton's college. Sarag doesn't have to worry about needing to pay for college for her kids. Paying for the college costs insures Molly's silence for another four or five years.

Banyan

10/16/2011 08:20:14 am

@ Emily P --Very interesting!

@jk

I must also add that I'm quite skeptical of Brad's and Alison's theory that Ruffle's ear developed (or was quickly surgically altered) into Trig's ear, and, therefore, that they are the same baby.

Here, for example, is Gryphen's report on his consultation with ENT specialists:
"I showed the baby shower picture to a number of medical professionals, including an Ear, Nose, and Throat Specialist, a physician, an audiologist who specializes in children’s hearing issues, and a pediatrician (None of them knew they were looking at a picture of Sarah Palin’s child). Each agreed the ear is visibly malformed. I asked them if this defect could “heal” or disappear on its own. “Of course not”, they each replied. I then showed them pictures of Trig Palin's ear from the campaign. Again, none knew they were looking at a photograph of Sarah Palin's son. I asked all if it could possibly be the same child, four to five months later. The answer: "No."

Furthermore I learned that to correct conditions like this surgery is required, and that these surgeries are never performed before the age of four. And even if someone could have been located to perform plastic surgery on a child so young, the result would not be the "perfection" that Trig's ear shows. Some scarring would still be visible. We have countless high-definition photos of Trig Palin's head. Nothing of the sort can be seen in any of them.

“So in other words” I asked. “You are saying that the child in the baby shower pictures must still have that same ear malformation today?’ Each of them answered in the affirmative.

In fact here is a direct quote from one medical professional:

"There is an approximately zero percent probability that these two sets of ears belong to the same infant."

End quote

Ottoline

10/16/2011 08:37:48 am

Emily: when you say "Reportedly Molly leaked the info to Wooten regarding Track's biological father" -- what is your source for this, for Molly leaking this info?

Emily Pollifax

10/16/2011 10:33:19 am

Read it back in the Troopergate stuff. Plus someone pointed out emails where Sarah wanted to know the source. There is also the email where Syrin's post about Track's biological father almost made her quit the job. Wooten also told about Sarah being pregnant before marriage like Molly was before he married her. Molly has helped raise the Palin children.

Venefica

10/16/2011 11:10:08 am

@rubbernecking: I'm joining the "please don't leave" chorus. I appreciate your comments; they're skeptical yet informative. It's important to have as many critical thinkers as possible on this project.

@Joie Vouet: I'm kinda surprised to see you here. I recall that you've always dismissed Trig Truthers and have asserted that photographic evidence of SP's non-pregnancy is bunk. Please correct me if I'm wrong about this.

And to all: Be sure to stop by Brad's new blog (http://scharlottsbeacon.blogspot.com/). He has a very compelling new post up about the ruffled/healed ears issue.

Banyan

10/16/2011 02:39:55 pm

@ rubbernecking

I'd urge you to stay! I don't know where you're coming from or why, but you do keep us from betting too heavily on our improperly examined preconceptions (so to speak).

Brad Scharlott

10/17/2011 09:03:06 am

O/T
I have a new post up, and Laura is prominently mentioned as a hero among the Trig Truthers.

http://scharlottsbeacon.blogspot.com/2011/10/word-of-thanks-to-real-heroes-this-is.html

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What Are The Odds? - A Guest Post by Rationalist

Laura Novak

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